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2008issue C031-4

Confirm the ten-bagger launch path before the MACD exit

This archive article walks through a staged Rule-based entry procedure: a launch above the six-month Moving average that is large and liquid enough to stand out, a 13-week confirmation that the path is still intact, and a monthly MACD sell as the exit test rather than every close below the average.

  • A launch is defined as price rising above its six-month Moving average, but that single crossing is not treated as sufficient because many candidates later fall back for months or years.
  • The studied ten-baggers had a median launch-month price increase of 34.43 percent and a median volume increase of 114 percent, both far from ordinary market months.
  • After the first move above the six-month Moving average, the procedure waits 13 weeks and requires price to remain above that average before treating the launch as confirmed.
  • A close below the six-month Moving average is treated as a weak reversal test. The evaluated procedure sells on the monthly MACD signal instead.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackMACD115 readingsRule-based entry174 readingsMoving average449 readings

A launch is not a finished entry

The archive defines a launch as price rising above its six-month Moving average. That single crossing is not treated as sufficient, because many candidates later fall back for months or years.

The historical workflow therefore separates three checks: a launch large enough and liquid enough to stand out from ordinary noise, a later confirmation that the path is still intact, and only then an exit test.

Size and volume that stand out

In the source comparison, the median monthly price change for the overall market is 0.00 percent, while the median launch-month increase among the studied ten-baggers is 34.43 percent.

A one-month price increase of 34 percent or more is presented as placing a name in a rare market tail, with about a one-in-ten chance of belonging to the ten-bagger set under study.

The median volume increase at launch for the studied ten-baggers is 114 percent, described as falling in the top 4.5 percent of the overall market.

A thirteen-week path check

After a candidate first exceeds its six-month Moving average, the procedure waits 13 weeks and requires that price remain above that average before treating the launch as confirmed rather than a false start.

Median monthly float turnover: market versus 10-baggers

A launch-stage 10-bagger still turns over only about 6 percent of its shares in a month, versus 2.7 percent for the ordinary listed market, while names already in a tenfold run print near 29 percent. Treat that gap as a liquidity screen, not a reason to chase a move that is already mature. These five medians are the values printed on the source frequency chart of monthly shares outstanding traded.
A launch-stage 10-bagger still turns over only about 6 percent of its shares in a month, versus 2.7 percent for the ordinary listed market, while names already in a tenfold run print near 29 percent. Treat that gap as a liquidity screen, not a reason to chase a move that is already mature. These five medians are the values printed on the source frequency chart of monthly shares outstanding traded.Monthly

Each bar is the median of that sample's monthly turnover distribution, not a mean and not a single-name reading.

A moving-average break is a weak reversal test

A close below the six-month Moving average is treated as a weak reversal test. In the source sample it is associated with only a 71.2 percent confidence that the decline is a true reversal rather than a correction.

MACD as the slower exit filter

MACD is used as the slower exit filter. Every reversal in the study triggered a MACD sell, but not every MACD sell marked a reversal, and five earlier MACD sells were later judged to be corrections.

Selling on the monthly MACD signal is assigned a 14.3 percent risk of exiting a correction too early, which the source frames as more than 85 percent confidence in a correct sell decision.

The combined buy and sell rules

The evaluated procedure buys after the 13-week confirmation and sells on the monthly MACD sell signal. That combined rule set was backtested on 30 ten-baggers.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
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20081-14 pp.Next on MACDReading the offloaded evidence fileThe workflow begins by loading the full supplied evidence before any dossier is written.
All readings on this track · 80 readings
  1. 1988Rebuild MACD-Mo and MACD-H before treating them as signals
  2. 1989Four-span MACD lookbacks as perishable parameters
  3. 1989Weekly then daily MACD confirmation on individual stocks
  4. 1991Regime-gated MACD and stochastic rules inside a checklist
  5. 1991Constructing MACD signal lines and divergence tests
  6. 1991MACD parameter order and cycle phase lag
  7. 1992Lengthened bond MACD as an equity regime filter
  8. 1992Long-horizon MACD construction from paired exponential averages
  9. 1993Constructing a signed ten-point trend filter
  10. 1994Constructing lag-reduced double exponential averages for MACD
  11. 1994Seeding DEMA2 filters to build a MACD signal
  12. 1994Constructing MACD from lag-reduced exponential averages
  13. 1994TEMA1 from nested exponential averages, then a two-horizon MACD
  14. 1994Constructing entry and exit on a relative-strength MACD
  15. 1994Constructing a relative-strength MACD crossover spreadsheet
  16. 1995Consensus presignal filters for Relative Strength Index, MACD and the Stochastic oscillator
  17. 1997Confirm the MACD turn with price, then exit on the histogram
  18. 1997Reconstructing a stochastic oscillator, MACD, and a triple-smoothed oscillator
  19. 1997Moving-average windows before crossovers and MACD
  20. 1999Second-stage MACD on relative-strength inputs
  21. 1999Constructing MACD from exponential-average spreads for crossover and divergence
  22. 1999Coding candlesticks into numeric indicators
  23. 2001Second-low confirmation with a percentage oscillator and money-flow filter
  24. 2001Constructing MACD from exponential average spreads and a signal line
  25. 2002Separate bounded and trend-following oscillator rules
  26. 2002Sort the regime before assigning MACD and stochastic jobs
  27. 2002Building classic divergence filters from RSI and MACD
  28. 2002Weekly highs and lows as trend gates
  29. 2002Constructing channel-normalized Fisher reversal signals
  30. 2002Affine-price and the Fisher transform as a constructed companion to MACD
  31. 2003Regularized EMA construction with a MACD line and a thrust oscillator
  32. 2003Curvature-penalized exponential averages versus MACD
  33. 2003MACD, moving averages, and a trend filter as one timing system
  34. 2003Fractional MACD and linear-regression reversal construction
  35. 2004Weekly MACD-histogram timing of bear-market rallies
  36. 2004Candlestick triggers filtered by MACD divergence
  37. 2004Staging energy-complex tops with trendline, breakout, and MACD
  38. 2005Selling climax holds versus fails
  39. 2006Treat a sideways Wave as permission before a breakout
  40. 2007MACD with a Stochastic oscillator for spotting trend reversals
  41. 2007Rebuilding an S&P 500 fifth-wave count after a broken target
  42. 2007Constructing MACD, RSI, and stochastic confirmation for futures
  43. 2007MACD histogram divergence needs a confirming close
  44. 2007Write the plan as a stack: ratio, boundary, then oscillators
  45. 2008MACD divergence and Stochastic oscillator confirmation on lumber futures
  46. 2008Assign confirmation, timing, and a stop before a currency pair is tested
  47. 2008Confirm the ten-bagger launch path before the MACD exit
  48. 2008Reading the offloaded evidence file
  49. 2008A Leader companion for MACD direction warnings
  50. 2008Relative strength exits with MACD averages and RSI
  51. 2008Assign one job per indicator in a three-screens rule set
  52. 2008Sequencing RSI, MACD, and average crossovers
  53. 2010Constructing the Schaff Trend Cycle from MACD and a dominant-cycle window
  54. 2010Schaff Trend Cycle as a MACD and Stochastic oscillator combination
  55. 2010Combining Relative Strength Index, the stochastic oscillator, and MACD as slope filters
  56. 2010Short-term wave and ratio clues without direction calls
  57. 2010A precise pullback entry and an unplanned profit-protection exit
  58. 2010Filtering MACD false signals with trendline breaks
  59. 2011Vendor feeds as an input variable in a MACD evaluation
  60. 2012Out-of-the-money versus in-the-money option sensitivity to implied volatility
  61. 2012MACD window tuning as hold-time control
  62. 2012Combining a moving-average crossover with MACD and support-resistance
  63. 2012Testing a published MACD entry with a histogram and signal-line agreement filter
  64. 2012Treat sample systems as a lab before live rules
  65. 2013Constructing moving averages and MACD from one price series
  66. 2013The next-bar price that forces a MACD signal-line cross
  67. 2013Constructing next-bar MACD reversal prices
  68. 2013Constructing inverted MACD reversal prices
  69. 2014Shared-filter combinations of the stochastic oscillator, MACD, and RSI
  70. 2014Square-root lookbacks for combined MACD and RSI
  71. 2015Audit open interest and trend before trusting oscillator crossovers
  72. 2016MACD without a signal line, confirmed by moving-average trend filters
  73. 2016Use RSI, MACD, and a moving average as a market-health consensus
  74. 2016MACD line versus histogram is a display problem first
  75. 2017Weekly and daily MACD on a single daily chart
  76. 2017Weekly and daily MACD as a stacked momentum filter
  77. 2017Nested weekly and daily MACD from paired EMA spreads
  78. 2018Weekly and daily PPO scale versus MACD, with bounded RSI and stochastic readings
  79. 2018Constructing a weekly and daily percentage price oscillator
  80. 2020Constructing Wyckoff tape reading with MACD, moving-average, and RSI filters
By fieldEntry and exit rules206 readingsBy year200867 readings
All 115 readings tagged MACD
Also on MACD5 readings
1994Constructing entry and exit on a relative-strength MACD2008Assign confirmation, timing, and a stop before a currency pair is tested2010Write the rubber-band long before the fill2012Testing a published MACD entry with a histogram and signal-line agreement filter1989Four-span MACD lookbacks as perishable parameters