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2010issue C0869-74

Short-term wave and ratio clues without direction calls

The source treats multi-day market-direction forecasts as fragile, while still reading short-horizon price-and-volume structure as evidence that a trend change may be unfolding. Editorial reading: use Elliott wave analysis, Fibonacci retracement, and MACD as three short-horizon checks on a suspected turn, not as a multi-day direction call.

  • Multi-day market-direction forecasts are treated as fragile because they rest on stacked assumptions that can fail if any one of them is wrong.
  • Short-horizon price-and-volume structure is still treated as usable evidence that a trend change may be unfolding.
  • Later March 2009 chart notes are presented as retrospective clues, not as a contemporaneous call.
  • Editorial reading: treat Elliott wave analysis, Fibonacci retracement, and MACD as three short-horizon checks on a suspected trend change.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Elliott wave analysis94 readingsFibonacci retracement97 readingsCurrent trackMACD115 readings

Why multi-day direction forecasts are treated as fragile

The source treats multi-day market-direction forecasts as fragile because they rest on stacked assumptions that can fail if any one of them is wrong.

The source still treats short-horizon price-and-volume structure as usable evidence that a trend change may be unfolding.

Retrospective clues, not a contemporaneous call

The source dates a market-bottom week as the week of March 9, 2009, and presents later March 2009 chart notes as retrospective clues rather than as a contemporaneous call.

A March 30, 2009 quote-screen example of market-leading names is used to illustrate large price moves occurring with much higher than average volume.

Structures that are easier after they are pointed out

A daily Apple example is described as a triple-bottom sequence with bottoms in mid-November 2008, mid-January 2009, and March 2009. The last of those lows is higher than the January low, while selling volume declined.

The source presents bear flags, bull flags, possible V-bottoms, and a rough head-and-shoulders bottom on a daily Google chart as more common or identifiable structures once volume contraction is also noted.

The source states that chart patterns become easy to recognize after they have been pointed out, but spotting them in a rapidly moving live market requires years of practice.

Three glossary definitions

The source's glossary defines a Fibonacci ratio as the relationship between successive Fibonacci numbers, with the three important ratios given as 0.618, 1.0, and 1.618.

The source's glossary defines MACD as the crossing of two exponentially smoothed moving averages plotted above and below a zero line, with the crossover, zero-line movement, and divergences used to generate buy and sell signals.

The source's glossary defines a zigzag as an Elliott three-wave pattern that subdivides into a 5-3-5 structure, with wave B's top noticeably lower than the start of wave A in a bull market and the pattern inverted in a bear market.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
56 of 80 in the MACD track
201044-45 pp.Next on MACDA precise pullback entry and an unplanned profit-protection exitWeekly trend, a daily Fibonacci halt, a shallow MACD trough, and relative strength index confirmation can be scored together as one fill-or-stand-aside long hypothesis.
All readings on this track · 80 readings
  1. 1988Rebuild MACD-Mo and MACD-H before treating them as signals
  2. 1989Four-span MACD lookbacks as perishable parameters
  3. 1989Weekly then daily MACD confirmation on individual stocks
  4. 1991Regime-gated MACD and stochastic rules inside a checklist
  5. 1991Constructing MACD signal lines and divergence tests
  6. 1991MACD parameter order and cycle phase lag
  7. 1992Lengthened bond MACD as an equity regime filter
  8. 1992Long-horizon MACD construction from paired exponential averages
  9. 1993Constructing a signed ten-point trend filter
  10. 1994Constructing lag-reduced double exponential averages for MACD
  11. 1994Seeding DEMA2 filters to build a MACD signal
  12. 1994Constructing MACD from lag-reduced exponential averages
  13. 1994TEMA1 from nested exponential averages, then a two-horizon MACD
  14. 1994Constructing entry and exit on a relative-strength MACD
  15. 1994Constructing a relative-strength MACD crossover spreadsheet
  16. 1995Consensus presignal filters for Relative Strength Index, MACD and the Stochastic oscillator
  17. 1997Confirm the MACD turn with price, then exit on the histogram
  18. 1997Reconstructing a stochastic oscillator, MACD, and a triple-smoothed oscillator
  19. 1997Moving-average windows before crossovers and MACD
  20. 1999Second-stage MACD on relative-strength inputs
  21. 1999Constructing MACD from exponential-average spreads for crossover and divergence
  22. 1999Coding candlesticks into numeric indicators
  23. 2001Second-low confirmation with a percentage oscillator and money-flow filter
  24. 2001Constructing MACD from exponential average spreads and a signal line
  25. 2002Separate bounded and trend-following oscillator rules
  26. 2002Sort the regime before assigning MACD and stochastic jobs
  27. 2002Building classic divergence filters from RSI and MACD
  28. 2002Weekly highs and lows as trend gates
  29. 2002Constructing channel-normalized Fisher reversal signals
  30. 2002Affine-price and the Fisher transform as a constructed companion to MACD
  31. 2003Regularized EMA construction with a MACD line and a thrust oscillator
  32. 2003Curvature-penalized exponential averages versus MACD
  33. 2003MACD, moving averages, and a trend filter as one timing system
  34. 2003Fractional MACD and linear-regression reversal construction
  35. 2004Weekly MACD-histogram timing of bear-market rallies
  36. 2004Candlestick triggers filtered by MACD divergence
  37. 2004Staging energy-complex tops with trendline, breakout, and MACD
  38. 2005Selling climax holds versus fails
  39. 2006Treat a sideways Wave as permission before a breakout
  40. 2007MACD with a Stochastic oscillator for spotting trend reversals
  41. 2007Rebuilding an S&P 500 fifth-wave count after a broken target
  42. 2007Constructing MACD, RSI, and stochastic confirmation for futures
  43. 2007MACD histogram divergence needs a confirming close
  44. 2007Write the plan as a stack: ratio, boundary, then oscillators
  45. 2008MACD divergence and Stochastic oscillator confirmation on lumber futures
  46. 2008Assign confirmation, timing, and a stop before a currency pair is tested
  47. 2008Confirm the ten-bagger launch path before the MACD exit
  48. 2008Reading the offloaded evidence file
  49. 2008A Leader companion for MACD direction warnings
  50. 2008Relative strength exits with MACD averages and RSI
  51. 2008Assign one job per indicator in a three-screens rule set
  52. 2008Sequencing RSI, MACD, and average crossovers
  53. 2010Constructing the Schaff Trend Cycle from MACD and a dominant-cycle window
  54. 2010Schaff Trend Cycle as a MACD and Stochastic oscillator combination
  55. 2010Combining Relative Strength Index, the stochastic oscillator, and MACD as slope filters
  56. 2010Short-term wave and ratio clues without direction calls
  57. 2010A precise pullback entry and an unplanned profit-protection exit
  58. 2010Filtering MACD false signals with trendline breaks
  59. 2011Vendor feeds as an input variable in a MACD evaluation
  60. 2012Out-of-the-money versus in-the-money option sensitivity to implied volatility
  61. 2012MACD window tuning as hold-time control
  62. 2012Combining a moving-average crossover with MACD and support-resistance
  63. 2012Testing a published MACD entry with a histogram and signal-line agreement filter
  64. 2012Treat sample systems as a lab before live rules
  65. 2013Constructing moving averages and MACD from one price series
  66. 2013The next-bar price that forces a MACD signal-line cross
  67. 2013Constructing next-bar MACD reversal prices
  68. 2013Constructing inverted MACD reversal prices
  69. 2014Shared-filter combinations of the stochastic oscillator, MACD, and RSI
  70. 2014Square-root lookbacks for combined MACD and RSI
  71. 2015Audit open interest and trend before trusting oscillator crossovers
  72. 2016MACD without a signal line, confirmed by moving-average trend filters
  73. 2016Use RSI, MACD, and a moving average as a market-health consensus
  74. 2016MACD line versus histogram is a display problem first
  75. 2017Weekly and daily MACD on a single daily chart
  76. 2017Weekly and daily MACD as a stacked momentum filter
  77. 2017Nested weekly and daily MACD from paired EMA spreads
  78. 2018Weekly and daily PPO scale versus MACD, with bounded RSI and stochastic readings
  79. 2018Constructing a weekly and daily percentage price oscillator
  80. 2020Constructing Wyckoff tape reading with MACD, moving-average, and RSI filters
By fieldWaves and ratios90 readingsBy year201075 readings
All 115 readings tagged MACD
Also on MACD5 readings
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