Skip to main content
Track MACD
66 / 80
Search the archiveLibrary
Library

2013issue C1134-39

The next-bar price that forces a MACD signal-line cross

MACD is the difference between two exponential moving averages of price. Because a zero histogram is the same event as the MACD line meeting its signal line, that meeting can be solved as a next-bar price and plotted on the price pane.

  • MACD is the difference between a shorter-period and a longer-period exponential moving average of the input price series, with conventional lookbacks of 12, 26, and 9.
  • A zero histogram is algebraically the same event as the MACD line meeting its signal line, so that event can be solved as a next-bar price.
  • The implied next-bar price can be written from already known exponential averages and the two EMA weights, then plotted on the price pane.
  • Rebuilding MACD from simple moving averages yields companion next-bar prices for a direction change, a two-average cross, and a signal-line cross.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackMACD115 readingsExponential smoothing117 readingsMoving average449 readings

What conventional MACD already contains

MACD is defined as the difference between a shorter-period and a longer-period exponential moving average of the input price series. The conventional MACD construction uses fixed lookbacks of 12, 26, and 9 for the fast average, slow average, and signal average.

The signal line is an exponential moving average of the MACD series, which is Exponential smoothing applied to MACD rather than to price, and the histogram is the spread between MACD and that signal line.

The cross as a next-bar price

A zero histogram is algebraically the same event as the MACD line meeting its signal line, which is the mapping solved for a next-bar price.

The next-bar price that forces a MACD-signal cross can be written from already known exponential averages and the two EMA weights, then plotted on the price pane.

An illustrated daily series

On the illustrated daily Apple series, a Friday close of 700.09 implied a next-session threshold of 693.546 for a MACD-signal cross.

The following session closed at 690.79, below that projected threshold, and MACD printed 15.0326 against a signal of 15.2085.

Companion prices from a Moving average rebuild

The same reverse-mapping idea applies when MACD is rebuilt from simple moving averages, yielding companion next-bar prices for a direction change, a two-average cross, and a signal-line cross. That rebuild replaces the exponential averages with Moving average lookbacks on the same price series.

In the compared window, the simple-moving-average version produced five price-threshold crosses while the exponential version produced seven.

Next-bar Apple price that forces a MACD signal-line cross

Traders can treat the red PMACDsignal path as a live strike: a next close above it implies MACD will cross up through its signal, and a close below it implies a bearish cross. Six such meetings with the daily close are visible from June to September 2012. Values were read off the published Apple daily chart; 700.09 and 693.546 are the printed last close and the one-bar-ahead projection.
Traders can treat the red PMACDsignal path as a live strike: a next close above it implies MACD will cross up through its signal, and a close below it implies a bearish cross. Six such meetings with the daily close are visible from June to September 2012. Values were read off the published Apple daily chart; 700.09 and 693.546 are the printed last close and the one-bar-ahead projection.AAPL · daily · 2012-06-06T00:00:00.000Z to 2012-09-24T00:00:00.000Z

Standard 12/26/9 settings on daily closes. The function is plotted one session ahead because it is a next-bar price. Only the 21 September close and the 24 September projection are labeled on the figure; remaining points are approximate readings from the raster.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
66 of 80 in the MACD track
201356-58 pp.Next on MACDConstructing next-bar MACD reversal pricesA reverse construction can return the implied next-bar price at which the MACD histogram would equal zero.
All readings on this track · 80 readings
  1. 1988Rebuild MACD-Mo and MACD-H before treating them as signals
  2. 1989Four-span MACD lookbacks as perishable parameters
  3. 1989Weekly then daily MACD confirmation on individual stocks
  4. 1991Regime-gated MACD and stochastic rules inside a checklist
  5. 1991Constructing MACD signal lines and divergence tests
  6. 1991MACD parameter order and cycle phase lag
  7. 1992Lengthened bond MACD as an equity regime filter
  8. 1992Long-horizon MACD construction from paired exponential averages
  9. 1993Constructing a signed ten-point trend filter
  10. 1994Constructing lag-reduced double exponential averages for MACD
  11. 1994Seeding DEMA2 filters to build a MACD signal
  12. 1994Constructing MACD from lag-reduced exponential averages
  13. 1994TEMA1 from nested exponential averages, then a two-horizon MACD
  14. 1994Constructing entry and exit on a relative-strength MACD
  15. 1994Constructing a relative-strength MACD crossover spreadsheet
  16. 1995Consensus presignal filters for Relative Strength Index, MACD and the Stochastic oscillator
  17. 1997Confirm the MACD turn with price, then exit on the histogram
  18. 1997Reconstructing a stochastic oscillator, MACD, and a triple-smoothed oscillator
  19. 1997Moving-average windows before crossovers and MACD
  20. 1999Second-stage MACD on relative-strength inputs
  21. 1999Constructing MACD from exponential-average spreads for crossover and divergence
  22. 1999Coding candlesticks into numeric indicators
  23. 2001Second-low confirmation with a percentage oscillator and money-flow filter
  24. 2001Constructing MACD from exponential average spreads and a signal line
  25. 2002Separate bounded and trend-following oscillator rules
  26. 2002Sort the regime before assigning MACD and stochastic jobs
  27. 2002Building classic divergence filters from RSI and MACD
  28. 2002Weekly highs and lows as trend gates
  29. 2002Constructing channel-normalized Fisher reversal signals
  30. 2002Affine-price and the Fisher transform as a constructed companion to MACD
  31. 2003Regularized EMA construction with a MACD line and a thrust oscillator
  32. 2003Curvature-penalized exponential averages versus MACD
  33. 2003MACD, moving averages, and a trend filter as one timing system
  34. 2003Fractional MACD and linear-regression reversal construction
  35. 2004Weekly MACD-histogram timing of bear-market rallies
  36. 2004Candlestick triggers filtered by MACD divergence
  37. 2004Staging energy-complex tops with trendline, breakout, and MACD
  38. 2005Selling climax holds versus fails
  39. 2006Treat a sideways Wave as permission before a breakout
  40. 2007MACD with a Stochastic oscillator for spotting trend reversals
  41. 2007Rebuilding an S&P 500 fifth-wave count after a broken target
  42. 2007Constructing MACD, RSI, and stochastic confirmation for futures
  43. 2007MACD histogram divergence needs a confirming close
  44. 2007Write the plan as a stack: ratio, boundary, then oscillators
  45. 2008MACD divergence and Stochastic oscillator confirmation on lumber futures
  46. 2008Assign confirmation, timing, and a stop before a currency pair is tested
  47. 2008Confirm the ten-bagger launch path before the MACD exit
  48. 2008Reading the offloaded evidence file
  49. 2008A Leader companion for MACD direction warnings
  50. 2008Relative strength exits with MACD averages and RSI
  51. 2008Assign one job per indicator in a three-screens rule set
  52. 2008Sequencing RSI, MACD, and average crossovers
  53. 2010Constructing the Schaff Trend Cycle from MACD and a dominant-cycle window
  54. 2010Schaff Trend Cycle as a MACD and Stochastic oscillator combination
  55. 2010Combining Relative Strength Index, the stochastic oscillator, and MACD as slope filters
  56. 2010Short-term wave and ratio clues without direction calls
  57. 2010A precise pullback entry and an unplanned profit-protection exit
  58. 2010Filtering MACD false signals with trendline breaks
  59. 2011Vendor feeds as an input variable in a MACD evaluation
  60. 2012Out-of-the-money versus in-the-money option sensitivity to implied volatility
  61. 2012MACD window tuning as hold-time control
  62. 2012Combining a moving-average crossover with MACD and support-resistance
  63. 2012Testing a published MACD entry with a histogram and signal-line agreement filter
  64. 2012Treat sample systems as a lab before live rules
  65. 2013Constructing moving averages and MACD from one price series
  66. 2013The next-bar price that forces a MACD signal-line cross
  67. 2013Constructing next-bar MACD reversal prices
  68. 2013Constructing inverted MACD reversal prices
  69. 2014Shared-filter combinations of the stochastic oscillator, MACD, and RSI
  70. 2014Square-root lookbacks for combined MACD and RSI
  71. 2015Audit open interest and trend before trusting oscillator crossovers
  72. 2016MACD without a signal line, confirmed by moving-average trend filters
  73. 2016Use RSI, MACD, and a moving average as a market-health consensus
  74. 2016MACD line versus histogram is a display problem first
  75. 2017Weekly and daily MACD on a single daily chart
  76. 2017Weekly and daily MACD as a stacked momentum filter
  77. 2017Nested weekly and daily MACD from paired EMA spreads
  78. 2018Weekly and daily PPO scale versus MACD, with bounded RSI and stochastic readings
  79. 2018Constructing a weekly and daily percentage price oscillator
  80. 2020Constructing Wyckoff tape reading with MACD, moving-average, and RSI filters
By fieldIndicators and filters682 readingsBy year201398 readings
All 115 readings tagged MACD
Also on MACD5 readings
1991MACD parameter order and cycle phase lag1992Long-horizon MACD construction from paired exponential averages1994Constructing lag-reduced double exponential averages for MACD1994Constructing MACD from lag-reduced exponential averages1994TEMA1 from nested exponential averages, then a two-horizon MACD