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2007issue C061-4

Rebuilding an S&P 500 fifth-wave count after a broken target

A prior S&P 500 wave-5 target between 1377 and 1390 was treated as invalid after the index advanced from 1220 to over 1420. The rebuilt ABC count then placed a new fifth-wave band between 1427 and 1464 and kept higher prices as the default until a MACD-histogram watch or the 1462 area argued otherwise.

  • A mid-September S&P 500 peak counted as a wave-3 top, with a wave-5 target between 1377 and 1390, was later treated as invalid after the index advanced from 1220 to over 1420.
  • The revised long-term count treated the cyclical bull market from late 2002 as an ABC advance and bounded a likely fifth-wave top of wave C between 1427 and 1464.
  • On the daily chart, the fifth wave of wave C was still treated as incomplete after a January 2007 wave-4 low, with higher prices the default until a longer-term negative MACD-histogram divergence or price action near the 1462 area argued otherwise.
  • Editorial reading: a broken Elliott wave analysis target becomes a clearer hypothesis only after the count is rebuilt and the new fifth-wave projection is bound to Fibonacci retracement ratios and a MACD watch the chart can falsify.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Elliott wave analysis94 readingsFibonacci retracement97 readingsCurrent trackMACD115 readings

A prior Elliott wave analysis count treated a mid-September S&P 500 peak as a wave-3 top and projected a wave-5 top between 1377 and 1390. That count was later treated as invalid after the index advanced from 1220 to over 1420.

The rebuilt ABC count

The revised long-term count treated the cyclical bull market from late 2002 as a three-segment ABC advance. Wave A was counted as a simple rise from October 2002 to March 2004. Wave B was counted as a complex correction from April 2004 into an October 2004 low nearer 1100 rather than the August 1060 print.

The C-wave from the October 2004 lows was counted as a five-wave structure: a March 2005 wave-1 peak, an April wave-2 trough, a third-wave advance into spring 2006 interrupted by an October 2005 correction, and a wave-4 low in summer 2006.

Fibonacci bounds on the new fifth wave

A minimum fifth-wave projection added 1.618 times the 125-point wave-1 amplitude (1225 minus 1100) to 1225, producing 1427.25. A maximum fifth-wave projection added 0.618 times the 225-point wave-3 amplitude (1325 minus 1100) to 1325, producing 1464.05. The article bounded a likely wave-5 top between 1427 and 1464.

Daily labels and the MACD watch

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of wave C was counted with a mid-December wave-3 top and a January 2007 correction low as the end of wave 4. The working hypothesis treated the advance from the summer 2006 wave-4 low as still incomplete and treated higher prices as the default until a longer-term negative MACD-histogram divergence or price action near a 1462-area target argued otherwise.

Editorial reading: those two watches are what make the rebuilt count falsifiable. The idea stays intact while price holds the incomplete-fifth-wave reading. It is marked wrong if a longer-term negative MACD-histogram divergence appears, or if price action near the 1462 area argues that the 1427 to 1464 fifth-wave band has done its work.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
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20071-1 pp.Next on MACDConstructing MACD, RSI, and stochastic confirmation for futuresMACD is the difference between two exponential moving averages, commonly the 26-day and 12-day averages, and is used to measure short-term momentum.
All readings on this track · 80 readings
  1. 1988Rebuild MACD-Mo and MACD-H before treating them as signals
  2. 1989Four-span MACD lookbacks as perishable parameters
  3. 1989Weekly then daily MACD confirmation on individual stocks
  4. 1991Regime-gated MACD and stochastic rules inside a checklist
  5. 1991Constructing MACD signal lines and divergence tests
  6. 1991MACD parameter order and cycle phase lag
  7. 1992Lengthened bond MACD as an equity regime filter
  8. 1992Long-horizon MACD construction from paired exponential averages
  9. 1993Constructing a signed ten-point trend filter
  10. 1994Constructing lag-reduced double exponential averages for MACD
  11. 1994Seeding DEMA2 filters to build a MACD signal
  12. 1994Constructing MACD from lag-reduced exponential averages
  13. 1994TEMA1 from nested exponential averages, then a two-horizon MACD
  14. 1994Constructing entry and exit on a relative-strength MACD
  15. 1994Constructing a relative-strength MACD crossover spreadsheet
  16. 1995Consensus presignal filters for Relative Strength Index, MACD and the Stochastic oscillator
  17. 1997Confirm the MACD turn with price, then exit on the histogram
  18. 1997Reconstructing a stochastic oscillator, MACD, and a triple-smoothed oscillator
  19. 1997Moving-average windows before crossovers and MACD
  20. 1999Second-stage MACD on relative-strength inputs
  21. 1999Constructing MACD from exponential-average spreads for crossover and divergence
  22. 1999Coding candlesticks into numeric indicators
  23. 2001Second-low confirmation with a percentage oscillator and money-flow filter
  24. 2001Constructing MACD from exponential average spreads and a signal line
  25. 2002Separate bounded and trend-following oscillator rules
  26. 2002Sort the regime before assigning MACD and stochastic jobs
  27. 2002Building classic divergence filters from RSI and MACD
  28. 2002Weekly highs and lows as trend gates
  29. 2002Constructing channel-normalized Fisher reversal signals
  30. 2002Affine-price and the Fisher transform as a constructed companion to MACD
  31. 2003Regularized EMA construction with a MACD line and a thrust oscillator
  32. 2003Curvature-penalized exponential averages versus MACD
  33. 2003MACD, moving averages, and a trend filter as one timing system
  34. 2003Fractional MACD and linear-regression reversal construction
  35. 2004Weekly MACD-histogram timing of bear-market rallies
  36. 2004Candlestick triggers filtered by MACD divergence
  37. 2004Staging energy-complex tops with trendline, breakout, and MACD
  38. 2005Selling climax holds versus fails
  39. 2006Treat a sideways Wave as permission before a breakout
  40. 2007MACD with a Stochastic oscillator for spotting trend reversals
  41. 2007Rebuilding an S&P 500 fifth-wave count after a broken target
  42. 2007Constructing MACD, RSI, and stochastic confirmation for futures
  43. 2007MACD histogram divergence needs a confirming close
  44. 2007Write the plan as a stack: ratio, boundary, then oscillators
  45. 2008MACD divergence and Stochastic oscillator confirmation on lumber futures
  46. 2008Assign confirmation, timing, and a stop before a currency pair is tested
  47. 2008Confirm the ten-bagger launch path before the MACD exit
  48. 2008Reading the offloaded evidence file
  49. 2008A Leader companion for MACD direction warnings
  50. 2008Relative strength exits with MACD averages and RSI
  51. 2008Assign one job per indicator in a three-screens rule set
  52. 2008Sequencing RSI, MACD, and average crossovers
  53. 2010Constructing the Schaff Trend Cycle from MACD and a dominant-cycle window
  54. 2010Schaff Trend Cycle as a MACD and Stochastic oscillator combination
  55. 2010Combining Relative Strength Index, the stochastic oscillator, and MACD as slope filters
  56. 2010Short-term wave and ratio clues without direction calls
  57. 2010A precise pullback entry and an unplanned profit-protection exit
  58. 2010Filtering MACD false signals with trendline breaks
  59. 2011Vendor feeds as an input variable in a MACD evaluation
  60. 2012Out-of-the-money versus in-the-money option sensitivity to implied volatility
  61. 2012MACD window tuning as hold-time control
  62. 2012Combining a moving-average crossover with MACD and support-resistance
  63. 2012Testing a published MACD entry with a histogram and signal-line agreement filter
  64. 2012Treat sample systems as a lab before live rules
  65. 2013Constructing moving averages and MACD from one price series
  66. 2013The next-bar price that forces a MACD signal-line cross
  67. 2013Constructing next-bar MACD reversal prices
  68. 2013Constructing inverted MACD reversal prices
  69. 2014Shared-filter combinations of the stochastic oscillator, MACD, and RSI
  70. 2014Square-root lookbacks for combined MACD and RSI
  71. 2015Audit open interest and trend before trusting oscillator crossovers
  72. 2016MACD without a signal line, confirmed by moving-average trend filters
  73. 2016Use RSI, MACD, and a moving average as a market-health consensus
  74. 2016MACD line versus histogram is a display problem first
  75. 2017Weekly and daily MACD on a single daily chart
  76. 2017Weekly and daily MACD as a stacked momentum filter
  77. 2017Nested weekly and daily MACD from paired EMA spreads
  78. 2018Weekly and daily PPO scale versus MACD, with bounded RSI and stochastic readings
  79. 2018Constructing a weekly and daily percentage price oscillator
  80. 2020Constructing Wyckoff tape reading with MACD, moving-average, and RSI filters
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All 115 readings tagged MACD
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