Three-gate confirmation for wave, ratio, and cycle turns

How the reading is decomposed

The method decomposes a market reading into three categories: wave pattern, inter-wave Fibonacci ratios, and the time interval of the bull or bear swing.

Editorial framing calls that joint rule three-gate confirmation. A turning-point hypothesis is complete only when wave-count completion, a Fibonacci ratio objective, and a Fibonacci time-cycle window all coincide.

Wave count before shape

A completed bull structure is specified as three major up-waves separated by two major corrections, for five major legs. A bear structure keeps the same count even if the shapes differ.

The wave count is a running tally of upward and downward swings used to judge whether a bull or bear structure has finished its required number of legs. The count is treated as more decisive than the visual shape.

Fibonacci ratio objectives

Each Fibonacci integer is the sum of the two preceding integers. Successive terms approach a 0.618 ratio or its 1.618 inverse.

Those ratios, plus the series' early 1:1 relation, are used to relate successive waves to their corrections. A Fibonacci ratio objective is a price target obtained by relating one swing to another with those successive-integer ratios.

Fibonacci time cycles

Longer-horizon timing uses 21-day, 34-day, 55-day, 89-day, and 144-day Fibonacci intervals, stated as 3-, 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-week cycles. The 3-, 5-, 8-, and 13-day intervals are set aside for that longer-term focus.

A Fibonacci time cycle is a swing-to-swing interval taken from the Fibonacci integer series and used to mark when a bull or bear time window may expire.

When all three gates were specified together

The hog case set a third-wave downside objective at 40.50 as 1.618 times the prior down-leg. That price map coincided with an 89-week span from a December 1981 low and a 55-week span from the prior top.

The cattle case used a 233-week interval as the long-term timing frame and described the first major up-wave's correction as about 61.8 percent.

The silver case treated a 34-week interval from the low as a topping window and used 1.618 projections of 14.00 and 15.00 as confirming upside ratio objectives.

When the time cycle was not finishing

When no time cycle is clearly finishing, the Swiss-franc case treats certainty as reduced by that missing category even if the wave count and a 1.618 ratio objective appear complete. That cut is a missing-gate downgrade: certainty is reduced by exactly the unsatisfied category.

The wheat case placed a third-wave downside ratio objective at 3.15 from 1.618 of wave 1, while the next 55-week cycle was not due until early March, so the remaining gates were staggered.

Editorial reading: a wave extension is continuation of a supposedly finished third wave beyond the mapped ratio objective, which is why an incomplete time gate leaves the count open to further downside or upside travel.

The same ratio on different swings

The soybean case recorded three distinct 61.8 percent retracements during the downtrend. It distinguished a 61.8 percent measure of the July 1983 advance from a 61.8 percent measure of the entire rise from the October 1982 low.