Skip to main content
Track Rate of Change
6 / 46
Search the archiveLibrary
Library

1991issue C081-4

Three-indicator market overview from tape, sentiment and rates

A reduced market-timing model can be assembled from a 30-week Value Line momentum reading, an advisor bulls-over-bulls-plus-bears ratio and a 26-week change in short-term government bonds. The three-indicator overview is a simplified stand-in for a broader computerized model that still keeps distinct tape, sentiment and monetary components.

  • A reduced market-timing model can be assembled from three published series: a 30-week Value Line momentum reading, an advisor bulls-over-bulls-plus-bears ratio and a 26-week change in short-term government bonds.
  • The tape-component uses a 30-week Value Line rate-of-change: a drop below -1% that later rises back above -1% is treated as a buy, and a rise above 16% that later falls back below 16% is treated as a sell.
  • The sentiment-component buys when the bulls-over-bulls-plus-bears ratio falls under 42 and sells when it rises above 67, treating those readings as advisor excess rather than as trend direction.
  • The monetary-component classifies short-term government-bond momentum on a 26-week change, with a healthy climate above 1.7% and a hostile climate below -0.6%, while a companion figure restates support above +2% and a negative climate below -0.5%.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Market regime classification38 readingsCurrent trackRate of Change50 readingsMomentum strategy103 readings

Three published series

A reduced market-timing model can be assembled from three published series: a 30-week Value Line momentum reading, an advisor bulls-over-bulls-plus-bears ratio and a 26-week change in short-term government bonds.

The three-indicator overview is presented as a simplified stand-in for a broader computerized model that still keeps distinct sentiment, monetary and tape components.

Tape-component and rate-of-change

The tape-component in this overview is the 30-week Value Line momentum reading. That rate-of-change is this week's close versus the close 30 weeks earlier and can be updated by entering the daily Value Line level.

The tape rule uses 30-week momentum. A move below -1% that later rises back above -1% is treated as a buy. A move above 16% that later falls back below 16% is treated as a sell.

Sentiment-component as advisor excess

The sentiment rule buys when the bulls-over-bulls-plus-bears ratio falls under 42 and sells when that ratio rises above 67.

The same sentiment ratio is framed as a measure of advisor excess: readings above 67 mark too much optimism, and readings below 42 mark pronounced pessimism. Sentiment is treated analogously to valuation extremes such as a price/dividend ratio: both flag conditions that have gone too far rather than measure trend direction.

Monetary-component and rate climate

Short-term government-bond momentum is used as the monetary-component, with a healthy climate above 1.7% and a hostile climate below -0.6% on a 26-week change. That 26-week rate-of-change is a market-regime-classification of the backdrop as healthy or hostile.

A companion figure restates the rate climate as supportive when the 26-week bond change is above +2% and negative when that change falls below -0.5%.

A composite-overview

The three-indicator overview keeps distinct sentiment, monetary and tape components even in reduced form. Editorial reading: those parts function as a composite-overview and are read together rather than treated as isolated signals.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
6 of 46 in the Rate of Change track
19911-13 pp.Next on Rate of ChangeThree-component trend model with rate-of-change filtersComposite-thirds split the long-term outlook among a tape block, a sentiment-extremes block, and a monetary-economic block, with at least half the weight on market-derived technical inputs.
All readings on this track · 46 readings
  1. 1985Constructing excess and momentum difference-curve oscillators
  2. 1988Five reading rules for smoothed indicator charts
  3. 1989Momentum overlays that speed moving-average oscillators
  4. 1990A laboratory template that constructs Rate of Change as a pane module
  5. 1991Volume-scaled rate of change as a momentum construction
  6. 1991Three-indicator market overview from tape, sentiment and rates
  7. 1991Three-component trend model with rate-of-change filters
  8. 1992A KST oscillator from a weighted rate-of-change stack
  9. 1992Four-window weighted rate-of-change composite
  10. 1992Constructing multi-span smoothed rate-of-change filters
  11. 1992Constructing a four-horizon summed rate of change
  12. 1992Constructing KST from four weighted smoothed rates of change
  13. 1992Constructing a composite from weighted smoothed rates of change
  14. 1992Three-horizon KST maturity alignment
  15. 1992Construct a bond-led dividend-to-bond-yield regime first
  16. 1992Constructing relative-strength KST from weighted rate-of-change
  17. 1993Constructing a volume oscillator from average ratios and smoothed rate of change
  18. 1994Gold as a cycle clock for commodities and yields
  19. 1994Constructing a composite from weighted, smoothed rate-of-change windows
  20. 1994Constructing gold-mining rate-of-change tripwires for Treasury bonds
  21. 1994A capacity-stress checklist across commodities, bonds, and breadth
  22. 1994Rate of change parameters for testable entries
  23. 1994Constructing rate-of-change midpoints, lookbacks and divergence
  24. 1994Lead oscillator breaks need price trendline confirmation
  25. 1994Nested averages for an annual momentum curve
  26. 1994Evaluating a Coppock-style rate of change as a bottom-regime filter
  27. 1995A weighted eleven-month Dow rate of change as one testable timing procedure
  28. 1996Named lookbacks, thresholds, and streaks for entry rules
  29. 1997A midpoint rate-of-change test for bond trend follow-through
  30. 1997Constructing a short-rate-adjusted equity momentum filter
  31. 1998Daily momentum rank-churn as a portfolio-construction problem
  32. 1999Constructing a lagged rate of change cycle system
  33. 2000A triple delay line then a one-bar elliptic oscillator
  34. 2001Confirming rate of change divergences with price
  35. 2001Momentum trendline breaks need price confirmation
  36. 2001Market breadth, On-balance volume, and Rate of Change as a combined timing framework
  37. 2001Know Sure Thing with stacked horizons and trendline confirmation
  38. 2003Constructing a mechanical system from a rate of change condition
  39. 2003Constructing momentum from two closes and spotting divergence
  40. 2003Formula choice tilts which momentum mismatches count as divergences
  41. 2004RSI and momentum agreement as an asymmetric filter
  42. 2005Constructing price-normalized moving-slope hybrids
  43. 2005Unsigned speed gates on a fixed average-cross pair
  44. 2007Rebuilding rate of change as a path-weighted oscillator
  45. 2008Construct Special K so short-horizon signals stay inside the primary trend
  46. 2013Restore volume balance before adding another price-time indicator
By fieldIndicators and filters682 readingsBy year199198 readings
All 50 readings tagged Rate of Change
Also on Rate of Change5 readings
2012Construct a regime-aware context from sector rotationMarket regime classification1985Constructing excess and momentum difference-curve oscillators1989Momentum overlays that speed moving-average oscillators1991Three-component trend model with rate-of-change filters1991Volume-scaled rate of change as a momentum construction