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1994issue C081-2

Constructing gold-mining rate-of-change tripwires for Treasury bonds

A four-name gold-mining proxy, a 52-week percentage rate of change, and opposite +35 and -35 tripwires form a weekly overlay that issues discrete signals for Treasury bond futures.

  • The gold-mining proxy is a simple arithmetic average of four Thursday gold-mining closes after each close is multiplied by a fixed scaling factor. The four factors are 39.912, 20, 9.3957, and 36.
  • Both the gold-mining series and the Treasury bond futures series are prepared on a weekly scale so a 52-week rate of change matches a 12-month horizon.
  • Horizontal guides at +35 and -35 turn that signed oscillator into opposite rule-based signals: +35 percent is negative for Treasury bond futures and -35 percent is positive.
  • If another gold-mining group series replaces the four-stock average, the same +35 and -35 crossings should be rechecked in a system test rather than assumed to match.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackRate of Change50 readingsIntermarket analysis136 readingsRule-based entry174 readings

Pair the oscillator with Treasury bond futures

A 52-week percentage rate of change of a gold-mining index is the oscillator paired with Treasury bond futures.

Both the gold-mining series and the Treasury bond futures series are prepared on a weekly scale before the overlay is applied.

Assemble the gold-mining proxy

The gold-mining proxy is a four-name gold-equity average whose closes are scaled by fixed factors before they are averaged into a single intermarket input.

Each close is multiplied by a fixed scaling factor, then the four scaled closes are combined with a simple arithmetic average. The four scaling factors applied before that average are 39.912, 20, 9.3957, and 36.

The index reading is taken from Thursday closes of those gold-mining stocks.

Read the 52-week rate of change

Rate of change is a fixed-lookback percentage change in one series, here 52 weeks, read as a signed oscillator rather than a price overlay.

Weekly scale means both series are prepared as weekly observations so a 52-week lookback matches a 12-month horizon.

Place the signed tripwires

Horizontal guides are placed on the rate-of-change scale at +35 and -35. Those opposite percentage levels are the signed tripwire pair that converts oscillator readings into discrete positive or negative bond-side signals.

A gold-mining rate of change of +35 percent is treated as a negative rule-based signal for Treasury bond futures. A gold-mining rate of change of -35 percent is treated as a positive rule-based signal for Treasury bond futures.

Recheck crossings if the proxy changes

If a different gold-mining group series is substituted for the four-stock average, the same +35 and -35 crossings should be rechecked in a system test rather than assumed to match.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
20 of 46 in the Rate of Change track
19941-12 pp.Next on Rate of ChangeA capacity-stress checklist across commodities, bonds, and breadthIntermediate-term equity conditions were framed as hospitable when growth continued with unused capacity and without inflation or deflation pressure, and as hostile once the economy approached full capacity.
All readings on this track · 46 readings
  1. 1985Constructing excess and momentum difference-curve oscillators
  2. 1988Five reading rules for smoothed indicator charts
  3. 1989Momentum overlays that speed moving-average oscillators
  4. 1990A laboratory template that constructs Rate of Change as a pane module
  5. 1991Volume-scaled rate of change as a momentum construction
  6. 1991Three-indicator market overview from tape, sentiment and rates
  7. 1991Three-component trend model with rate-of-change filters
  8. 1992A KST oscillator from a weighted rate-of-change stack
  9. 1992Four-window weighted rate-of-change composite
  10. 1992Constructing multi-span smoothed rate-of-change filters
  11. 1992Constructing a four-horizon summed rate of change
  12. 1992Constructing KST from four weighted smoothed rates of change
  13. 1992Constructing a composite from weighted smoothed rates of change
  14. 1992Three-horizon KST maturity alignment
  15. 1992Construct a bond-led dividend-to-bond-yield regime first
  16. 1992Constructing relative-strength KST from weighted rate-of-change
  17. 1993Constructing a volume oscillator from average ratios and smoothed rate of change
  18. 1994Gold as a cycle clock for commodities and yields
  19. 1994Constructing a composite from weighted, smoothed rate-of-change windows
  20. 1994Constructing gold-mining rate-of-change tripwires for Treasury bonds
  21. 1994A capacity-stress checklist across commodities, bonds, and breadth
  22. 1994Rate of change parameters for testable entries
  23. 1994Constructing rate-of-change midpoints, lookbacks and divergence
  24. 1994Lead oscillator breaks need price trendline confirmation
  25. 1994Nested averages for an annual momentum curve
  26. 1994Evaluating a Coppock-style rate of change as a bottom-regime filter
  27. 1995A weighted eleven-month Dow rate of change as one testable timing procedure
  28. 1996Named lookbacks, thresholds, and streaks for entry rules
  29. 1997A midpoint rate-of-change test for bond trend follow-through
  30. 1997Constructing a short-rate-adjusted equity momentum filter
  31. 1998Daily momentum rank-churn as a portfolio-construction problem
  32. 1999Constructing a lagged rate of change cycle system
  33. 2000A triple delay line then a one-bar elliptic oscillator
  34. 2001Confirming rate of change divergences with price
  35. 2001Momentum trendline breaks need price confirmation
  36. 2001Market breadth, On-balance volume, and Rate of Change as a combined timing framework
  37. 2001Know Sure Thing with stacked horizons and trendline confirmation
  38. 2003Constructing a mechanical system from a rate of change condition
  39. 2003Constructing momentum from two closes and spotting divergence
  40. 2003Formula choice tilts which momentum mismatches count as divergences
  41. 2004RSI and momentum agreement as an asymmetric filter
  42. 2005Constructing price-normalized moving-slope hybrids
  43. 2005Unsigned speed gates on a fixed average-cross pair
  44. 2007Rebuilding rate of change as a path-weighted oscillator
  45. 2008Construct Special K so short-horizon signals stay inside the primary trend
  46. 2013Restore volume balance before adding another price-time indicator
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