2020issue C076-7
Construct a second-pullback entry after a moving-average crossover
A moving-average-crossover can assign a trend state without placing an order. The archive workflow then waits for a later spread-stochastic recross, and only after that second-cross-state may a rule-based-entry fire at a matching stochastic extreme, with both exits written in the same procedure.
- A moving-average-crossover assigns trend direction and first-cross-state. It does not, by itself, authorize a rule-based-entry.
- The average-spread is the signed difference of two moving averages of close. The spread-stochastic maps that series onto a bounded scale and is then averaged over three bars.
- Second-cross-state turns on only after the spread-stochastic later crosses 50 in the direction of the new trend. Until that flag is on, entry stays ineligible.
- A long rule-based-entry also needs an uptrend and a spread-stochastic below the lower threshold illustrated as 10. Exits use a trend-reversal-exit or a mid-band-target-exit written in the same procedure.
Separate the regime change from the order
The archive workflow starts with a moving-average-crossover and withholds the order. When the shorter average crosses the longer average, the procedure only assigns a trend state and resets the flags. Editorial reading: treat that event as a regime change, not as a rule-based-entry.
The later stage waits for a pullback on the spread-stochastic. Only after that second condition can a rule-based-entry become eligible, and the exits are written in the same procedure.
Build the average-spread and the spread-stochastic
A momentum series, the average-spread, can be formed as the difference between a shorter moving average and a longer moving average of close.
That difference series is converted with a stochastic oscillator by placing the current value between the lowest and highest values of the same series over a lookback, then averaging the resulting ratio over three bars. The result is the spread-stochastic: a bounded map of the average-spread.
The illustrated construction uses a 10-bar shorter average, a 40-bar longer average, and a 5-bar lookback for the stochastic oscillator of the average-spread.
Reset the flags at each crossover
When the shorter average crosses above the longer average, the procedure sets an uptrend state, turns first-cross-state on, and turns second-cross-state off.
When the shorter average crosses below the longer average, the procedure sets a downtrend state and applies the same first-cross-state on and second-cross-state off reset.
Arm the pullback only after a midpoint recross
While first-cross-state is on, a later crossing of the spread-stochastic through 50 in the direction of the new trend turns first-cross-state off and second-cross-state on. Until that recross, a rule-based-entry stays ineligible.
Fire a rule-based-entry at the matching extreme
Once second-cross-state is on, a long rule-based-entry is eligible only if the trend state is up and the spread-stochastic is below a lower threshold illustrated as 10.
Once second-cross-state is on, a short rule-based-entry is eligible only if the trend state is down and the spread-stochastic is above an upper threshold illustrated as 90.
Close with the same pair of exit rules
An open long is closed by a trend-reversal-exit if the moving-average trend state turns down, or by a mid-band-target-exit if the spread-stochastic rises through an interior target illustrated as 50 while the uptrend remains in force.
The short side uses the opposite pair of rules. Editorial reading: close a short on a trend-reversal-exit when the trend state turns up, or on a mid-band-target-exit when the spread-stochastic falls through that interior target while the downtrend remains in force.
All readings on this track · 57 readings
- 1988Constructing moving averages: weights, smoothing and crossovers
- 1988Constructing breadth and average trend states
- 1989Evaluating an always-in-the-market moving-average crossover
- 1989Constructing symmetric market-breadth ratio accumulators
- 1989Objective crossover tests of Fibonacci wave ratios
- 1990Volume-adjusted moving average construction
- 1991Constructing a mechanical crossover on a synthetic price series
- 1991A two-speed breadth reading for intermediate market direction
- 1992A Deutschemark yield map with dual-average and relative-strength timing
- 1992Confirming currency-fund trends with a crossover and a filter
- 1992A moving-average slope filter for crossover signals
- 1992Occupancy and split-sample tests for average crossovers
- 1994Gold-mining seasonality and bond-fund duration switching
- 1994Price oscillator from two moving averages
- 1995Explicit exponential weights and binary entry filters
- 1996Currency futures crossover with slope, bond filter, and stop
- 1996Two-market average crossover entry with a fixed stop
- 1997Construction of a filtered three-average crossover
- 1998Two-group exponential average compression as a trend filter
- 1998Constructing r-squared trend filters with dual lookbacks
- 1998Moving-average length is a habit, not a secret
- 1999Solving the close that triggers a moving-average crossover
- 2000Kagi yang and yin control versus crossover noise
- 2000Constructing simple moving average crossover filters
- 2000Building a vertical-horizontal filter to gate trend signals
- 2000Two-average crossover as a check on trend following
- 2003Stacked exponential-average retracement entries and extreme stops
- 2003Evaluating oscillator thresholds against optimized crossovers
- 2004Constructing a semicycle trend-quality filter
- 2004Commodity subgroups labeled by crossover, support, or convergence
- 2004Full-window evaluation of crossover trend systems
- 2004Two-average trend filters as a classroom critique of indicator stacking
- 2005Three-layer confirmation from a moving-average cross, candles, and Q-stick
- 2005Charting put prices beside an equity breakdown
- 2005Range-gated moving-average crossover construction
- 2007Anticipating a simple-average crossover with a threshold-close
- 2007Anticipating moving-average crossovers one bar ahead
- 2007Lead-series moving-average crossovers with a stochastic and relative strength index
- 2007Next-bar SMA crossover hypotheses from theoretical crossing values
- 2007Anticipating a moving-average crossover before confirmation
- 2007A three-horizon moving-average stack as a construction problem
- 2007Confirming trend with regression slope and r-squared
- 2008Constructing a multi-timeframe smoothed crossover
- 2008Best-day clusters versus trend filters
- 2008Allied markets as a confirmation gate for crossover and breakout signals
- 2008Weekly exponential-average crossover as a mechanical trend case study
- 2010Evaluating a 200-day crossover as long, short, and stand-aside rules
- 2010Read a 10-and-40 trend on two neighboring time frames
- 2012Sampling unit as a first-class parameter on dual simple moving averages
- 2012Constructing index-ETF entries from volatility-index persistence
- 2013Moving-average baselines versus crossover signals
- 2013Constructing a typical-price and heikin-ashi crossover as one mechanical procedure
- 2016A three-gate checklist for longs after a sharp drop
- 2016Weekly inflation-ratio crossover for commodity regimes
- 2017Normalized Laguerre zero-axis warning as a two-marker construction
- 2019Range-weighted construction of an adaptive exponential moving average
- 2020Construct a second-pullback entry after a moving-average crossover