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1999issue C111-3

Solving the close that triggers a moving-average crossover

A two-average crossover is the equality where the shorter simple average and the longer simple average are identical. Known closes already fill each window except the current bar, so that equality solves for a trigger price. The next print is then judged against that level.

  • A moving-average crossover is constructed at the single equality where the shorter simple average and the longer simple average are identical.
  • Known closes already sit in each window except the current bar, so the equality rearranges into one unknown: the trigger price.
  • A component split of two scaled known-close sums and a length difference produces that equalizing close.
  • Percent change to equality shows how large a one-bar move would have to be, and plotting the trigger price on the next bar shows whether that close would force a first crossover, miss it, recross, or fail to prevent a recross.
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Current trackMoving-average crossover108 readings

Construct the crossover as an equality

A two-average crossover is constructed at the single equality point where the shorter simple average and the longer simple average are identical. A moving-average crossover is the signal defined when those two averages pass through equality.

Isolate the unknown close

For a five-period versus ten-period simple-average pair, every close except the current one is already known, so the equality can be rearranged to solve for that one unknown close. The trigger price is that unknown current close: the print that would make the two simple moving averages exactly equal.

Known closes are the completed prior closes already inside each average window, excluding the current bar. Each known-close sum uses a window one bar shorter than the named average length so the current close is omitted from the summation.

Solve for the trigger price

The equalizing close equals the longer length times the shorter window's known-close sum, minus the shorter length times the longer window's known-close sum, all divided by the difference of the two lengths.

The same expression can be built as three parts: a left product, a right product, and a length-difference denominator. Those parts are then combined by subtracting and dividing. That component split separates the equalizing-close formula into two scaled known-close sums and a length difference before dividing.

Judge the next print against the level

Dividing the solved price by the latest close and converting the ratio to a percent change shows how large a one-bar move would have to be to force the averages to meet. Percent change to equality is that one-bar percent move from the latest close to the trigger price.

A very large required one-bar percent change means the equality is distant. A small required change means the next bar can trip or miss the condition. Plotting the solved price on the next bar shows whether that bar's close would force a first crossover, miss it, recross, or fail to prevent a recross.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
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20001-7 pp.Next on Moving-average crossoverKagi yang and yin control versus crossover noiseYang is a thick kagi line read as bullish control after a prior high is taken out. Yin is a thin line read as bearish control after a prior low is taken out. The thickness change is the basic buy or sell cue.
All readings on this track · 57 readings
  1. 1988Constructing moving averages: weights, smoothing and crossovers
  2. 1988Constructing breadth and average trend states
  3. 1989Evaluating an always-in-the-market moving-average crossover
  4. 1989Constructing symmetric market-breadth ratio accumulators
  5. 1989Objective crossover tests of Fibonacci wave ratios
  6. 1990Volume-adjusted moving average construction
  7. 1991Constructing a mechanical crossover on a synthetic price series
  8. 1991A two-speed breadth reading for intermediate market direction
  9. 1992A Deutschemark yield map with dual-average and relative-strength timing
  10. 1992Confirming currency-fund trends with a crossover and a filter
  11. 1992A moving-average slope filter for crossover signals
  12. 1992Occupancy and split-sample tests for average crossovers
  13. 1994Gold-mining seasonality and bond-fund duration switching
  14. 1994Price oscillator from two moving averages
  15. 1995Explicit exponential weights and binary entry filters
  16. 1996Currency futures crossover with slope, bond filter, and stop
  17. 1996Two-market average crossover entry with a fixed stop
  18. 1997Construction of a filtered three-average crossover
  19. 1998Two-group exponential average compression as a trend filter
  20. 1998Constructing r-squared trend filters with dual lookbacks
  21. 1998Moving-average length is a habit, not a secret
  22. 1999Solving the close that triggers a moving-average crossover
  23. 2000Kagi yang and yin control versus crossover noise
  24. 2000Constructing simple moving average crossover filters
  25. 2000Building a vertical-horizontal filter to gate trend signals
  26. 2000Two-average crossover as a check on trend following
  27. 2003Stacked exponential-average retracement entries and extreme stops
  28. 2003Evaluating oscillator thresholds against optimized crossovers
  29. 2004Constructing a semicycle trend-quality filter
  30. 2004Commodity subgroups labeled by crossover, support, or convergence
  31. 2004Full-window evaluation of crossover trend systems
  32. 2004Two-average trend filters as a classroom critique of indicator stacking
  33. 2005Three-layer confirmation from a moving-average cross, candles, and Q-stick
  34. 2005Charting put prices beside an equity breakdown
  35. 2005Range-gated moving-average crossover construction
  36. 2007Anticipating a simple-average crossover with a threshold-close
  37. 2007Anticipating moving-average crossovers one bar ahead
  38. 2007Lead-series moving-average crossovers with a stochastic and relative strength index
  39. 2007Next-bar SMA crossover hypotheses from theoretical crossing values
  40. 2007Anticipating a moving-average crossover before confirmation
  41. 2007A three-horizon moving-average stack as a construction problem
  42. 2007Confirming trend with regression slope and r-squared
  43. 2008Constructing a multi-timeframe smoothed crossover
  44. 2008Best-day clusters versus trend filters
  45. 2008Allied markets as a confirmation gate for crossover and breakout signals
  46. 2008Weekly exponential-average crossover as a mechanical trend case study
  47. 2010Evaluating a 200-day crossover as long, short, and stand-aside rules
  48. 2010Read a 10-and-40 trend on two neighboring time frames
  49. 2012Sampling unit as a first-class parameter on dual simple moving averages
  50. 2012Constructing index-ETF entries from volatility-index persistence
  51. 2013Moving-average baselines versus crossover signals
  52. 2013Constructing a typical-price and heikin-ashi crossover as one mechanical procedure
  53. 2016A three-gate checklist for longs after a sharp drop
  54. 2016Weekly inflation-ratio crossover for commodity regimes
  55. 2017Normalized Laguerre zero-axis warning as a two-marker construction
  56. 2019Range-weighted construction of an adaptive exponential moving average
  57. 2020Construct a second-pullback entry after a moving-average crossover
By fieldIndicators and filters682 readingsBy year199959 readings
All 108 readings tagged Moving-average crossover
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