Next-bar SMA crossover hypotheses from theoretical crossing values

Invert the dual lookback into a meeting value

The historical workflow computes a dualLookbackPair: a shorter simple moving average over 20 closes and a longer simple moving average over 30 closes.

A theoretical meeting value is formed from those two averages and their lookbacks. That reading is the theoreticalCrossingValue, the reconstructed close at which the shorter and longer simple moving averages would meet.

Store a next-bar hypothesis

A close that crosses the theoreticalCrossingValue is stored as a nextBarHypothesis, a candidate average crossover for the following session.

A descending hypothesis is recorded when the theoretical meeting value crosses above the close. An ascending hypothesis is recorded when the close crosses above the theoretical meeting value.

Keep confirmation on a separate clock

Confirmation is defined separately from the hypothesis. A descending confirmedCrossover is the longer average crossing the shorter average. An ascending confirmation is the reverse.

The later event, in which the two moving averages themselves cross, is the realization against which a hypothesis is scored.

Discard extremes and age the call

A theoretical meeting value is treated as unusable when it falls outside coefficients equal to one plus twice the 800-bar high or low of one-bar rate of change, scaled as a percent of the close. That guard is the extremeMoveFilter: it discards a theoreticalCrossingValue that sits outside bands built from doubled multi-hundred-bar extremes of one-bar rate of change.

If more than three bars have passed since the last confirmed average cross, the sign of the gap between the theoretical meeting value and the close is used as an early warning rather than a next-bar call.

Repeat the construction on a stochastic oscillator

Replacing the close with a stochastic oscillator series and repeating the 20-bar and 30-bar averages plus the same theoretical-value formula produces a stochasticAverageVariant, an analogous oscillator-crossover construction.

Each oscillator-based hypothesis is later labeled by whether a matching confirmed average cross occurs one, two, or three bars afterward, on the same bar, or outside that window.

Tally hypotheses as market share

Hypothesized and confirmed crosses are accumulated into composite series and expressed as percentages of the names in the scanned quotation universe. That compositeMarketShare is a breadth-style tally that stores the same events across the observed names and rescales them by the number of names observed.