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2008issue C011-2

Constructing a multi-timeframe smoothed crossover

The archive workflow builds a mechanical-trading-system from a triple-smoothed-overlay, a nested-timeframe-entry, and a stop-loss at the middle-line pivot. Alignment-state decides whether the script may hypothesize; a close-confirmed moving-average-crossover is the only license to enter.

  • The triple-smoothed-overlay is three displaced lines read as an alignment-state: a clean stack licenses a long or short hypothesis, and entanglement keeps the procedure out.
  • A nested-timeframe-entry sets direction on a slower chart, waits for a mid-scale counter-wave, then seeks a with-trend moving-average-crossover on the faster chart.
  • Entry is taken only when that crossover is present at the bar close, after the nest is already set, and the stop-loss is then placed at the pivot marked by the middle displaced average.
  • The overlay lag both reduces how much of a move can be captured and filters weaker or unconfirmed crosses, so delay is part of the same procedure.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackMoving-average crossover108 readingsStop-loss order144 readingsMechanical trading system158 readings

What is being built

The archive workflow is a mechanical-trading-system: a single testable sequence that joins higher-timeframe direction, mid-timeframe counter-wave, lower-timeframe close confirmation, and a predefined stop.

The overlay it inspects is a triple-smoothed-overlay. It is built from three smoothed moving averages of 13, 8 and 5 periods, shifted forward by 8, 5 and 3 bars, and read as the longest, middle, and shortest lines.

Alignment as a stay-out filter

When the three lines are entangled, the procedure treats the market as inactive and stays out. A long hypothesis requires the shortest line above the middle line above the longest line. A short hypothesis requires the opposite stack.

That pairing is the alignment-state: ordered stacking of the three lines as the trend hypothesis, and entanglement of the same lines as the stay-out state.

Alligator lines on daily GBP/USD

Twisted jaw, teeth and lips mean the script stays out; once the five-period line leads the eight- and thirteen-period lines higher, daily cable is aligned for a hunt. Quotes were read off the printed GBP/USD daily plot for 10 March–11 May 2006, not from a table.
Twisted jaw, teeth and lips mean the script stays out; once the five-period line leads the eight- and thirteen-period lines higher, daily cable is aligned for a hunt. Quotes were read off the printed GBP/USD daily plot for 10 March–11 May 2006, not from a table.GBP/USD · Daily · 2006-03-10T00:00:00.000Z to 2006-05-11T00:00:00.000Z

Sabodin’s alligator is three smoothed moving averages of 13, 8 and 5 periods, shifted 8, 5 and 3 bars (blue jaw, red teeth, green lips). Digitized from the raster against the printed 1.7185–1.9045 scale; expect about 0.003 error.

The nested wait

Daily direction is treated as the larger flow. The four-hour chart is then used to wait for a wave moving against that daily direction before a with-trend entry is sought. That nest is the nested-timeframe-entry: a slower chart sets direction, a middle chart waits for a wave against that direction, and a faster chart supplies the with-trend crossover.

The specified long configuration is daily up, four-hour down, and a 30-minute buy after the averages cross and slope higher. The specified short configuration is the inverse. The same nest can be compressed to four-hour direction, one-hour counter-wave, and a five-minute crossover.

Close confirmation

A moving-average-crossover is a close-confirmed cross and restack of the three displaced smoothed averages that licenses an entry only after the higher-timeframe nest is already set.

An entry is taken only if the moving-average-crossover is present at the bar close. Otherwise the next close is awaited.

The middle-line stop

Once a position is open, the stop-loss is placed at the price pivot identified with the middle displaced average. The stop-loss is a loss bound placed after entry at that pivot.

What the lag does

Because the overlay lags price, the same delay both reduces how much of a move can be captured and filters weaker or unconfirmed crossovers.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
43 of 57 in the Moving-average crossover track
20081-2 pp.Next on Moving-average crossoverBest-day clusters versus trend filtersThe comparison used the twenty largest one-day S&P 500 advances from 1955 through 2005 rather than only the ten largest days in a ten- or twenty-year window.
All readings on this track · 57 readings
  1. 1988Constructing moving averages: weights, smoothing and crossovers
  2. 1988Constructing breadth and average trend states
  3. 1989Evaluating an always-in-the-market moving-average crossover
  4. 1989Constructing symmetric market-breadth ratio accumulators
  5. 1989Objective crossover tests of Fibonacci wave ratios
  6. 1990Volume-adjusted moving average construction
  7. 1991Constructing a mechanical crossover on a synthetic price series
  8. 1991A two-speed breadth reading for intermediate market direction
  9. 1992A Deutschemark yield map with dual-average and relative-strength timing
  10. 1992Confirming currency-fund trends with a crossover and a filter
  11. 1992A moving-average slope filter for crossover signals
  12. 1992Occupancy and split-sample tests for average crossovers
  13. 1994Gold-mining seasonality and bond-fund duration switching
  14. 1994Price oscillator from two moving averages
  15. 1995Explicit exponential weights and binary entry filters
  16. 1996Currency futures crossover with slope, bond filter, and stop
  17. 1996Two-market average crossover entry with a fixed stop
  18. 1997Construction of a filtered three-average crossover
  19. 1998Two-group exponential average compression as a trend filter
  20. 1998Constructing r-squared trend filters with dual lookbacks
  21. 1998Moving-average length is a habit, not a secret
  22. 1999Solving the close that triggers a moving-average crossover
  23. 2000Kagi yang and yin control versus crossover noise
  24. 2000Constructing simple moving average crossover filters
  25. 2000Building a vertical-horizontal filter to gate trend signals
  26. 2000Two-average crossover as a check on trend following
  27. 2003Stacked exponential-average retracement entries and extreme stops
  28. 2003Evaluating oscillator thresholds against optimized crossovers
  29. 2004Constructing a semicycle trend-quality filter
  30. 2004Commodity subgroups labeled by crossover, support, or convergence
  31. 2004Full-window evaluation of crossover trend systems
  32. 2004Two-average trend filters as a classroom critique of indicator stacking
  33. 2005Three-layer confirmation from a moving-average cross, candles, and Q-stick
  34. 2005Charting put prices beside an equity breakdown
  35. 2005Range-gated moving-average crossover construction
  36. 2007Anticipating a simple-average crossover with a threshold-close
  37. 2007Anticipating moving-average crossovers one bar ahead
  38. 2007Lead-series moving-average crossovers with a stochastic and relative strength index
  39. 2007Next-bar SMA crossover hypotheses from theoretical crossing values
  40. 2007Anticipating a moving-average crossover before confirmation
  41. 2007A three-horizon moving-average stack as a construction problem
  42. 2007Confirming trend with regression slope and r-squared
  43. 2008Constructing a multi-timeframe smoothed crossover
  44. 2008Best-day clusters versus trend filters
  45. 2008Allied markets as a confirmation gate for crossover and breakout signals
  46. 2008Weekly exponential-average crossover as a mechanical trend case study
  47. 2010Evaluating a 200-day crossover as long, short, and stand-aside rules
  48. 2010Read a 10-and-40 trend on two neighboring time frames
  49. 2012Sampling unit as a first-class parameter on dual simple moving averages
  50. 2012Constructing index-ETF entries from volatility-index persistence
  51. 2013Moving-average baselines versus crossover signals
  52. 2013Constructing a typical-price and heikin-ashi crossover as one mechanical procedure
  53. 2016A three-gate checklist for longs after a sharp drop
  54. 2016Weekly inflation-ratio crossover for commodity regimes
  55. 2017Normalized Laguerre zero-axis warning as a two-marker construction
  56. 2019Range-weighted construction of an adaptive exponential moving average
  57. 2020Construct a second-pullback entry after a moving-average crossover
By fieldEntry and exit rules206 readingsBy year200867 readings
All 108 readings tagged Moving-average crossover
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1996Currency futures crossover with slope, bond filter, and stop1996Two-market average crossover entry with a fixed stop2003Stacked exponential-average retracement entries and extreme stops2020Couple the slow period to stop-loss and trailing-stop settings1989Evaluating an always-in-the-market moving-average crossover