Skip to main content
Track Moving-average crossover
54 / 57
Search the archiveLibrary
Library

2016issue C0918-19

Weekly inflation-ratio crossover for commodity regimes

A weekly short-versus-long moving-average comparison on an inflation-expectation ratio is built as a market-based inflation label, then read only as intermarket context for how energy, gold, and the dollar tend to cluster.

  • Commodities are treated as everyday production inputs, so inflation measures are described as moving closely with food and energy prices.
  • Official consumer-price indexes are characterized as backward-looking; the inflation-expectation ratio of inflation-protected Treasuries to similar-maturity Treasuries is offered as a market-based gauge.
  • The nine-by-thirty-six weekly crossover is a disinflationary reading when the short average stays below the long average, and a rising-inflation reading when the short average crosses above.
  • The same weekly cross is used as intermarket inflation context with the commodity-dollar inverse, not as a stand-alone call on one commodity.
Entries in this reading2 entries
Current trackMoving-average crossover108 readingsIntermarket analysis136 readings

Everyday inputs and inflation measures

Commodities are treated as everyday production inputs, so inflation measures are described as moving closely with food and energy prices.

Official consumer-price indexes are characterized as backward-looking. A ratio of inflation-protected Treasuries to similar-maturity Treasuries is offered instead as a market-based inflation-expectation gauge. That relative strength is the inflation-expectation ratio.

An advance in the inflation-protected-to-nominal Treasury ratio is interpreted as investors expecting higher future inflation.

One chart of major US inflation influences

The construction is checked by placing oil, the US dollar, gold, and the inflation-expectation ratio on one chart of major US inflation influences beginning in early 2007.

On that chart, energy, gold, and the inflation-expectation ratio appear to move together. The dollar moves inversely, because commodities are typically priced in dollars. That opposite path is the commodity-dollar inverse: commodity prices and the dollar tend to move in opposite directions.

The nine-by-thirty-six weekly crossover

The system is defined on a weekly chart as the relationship between a nine-week (45-day) moving average and a 36-week (180-day) moving average of the inflation-expectation ratio. That comparison is the nine-by-thirty-six weekly crossover.

A short average below the long average is a disinflationary reading and is labeled expected disinflation. A short-average cross above the long average is a rising-inflation reading and is labeled rising inflation expectations.

Crosses over the prior decade

Three inflation-expectation cycles over the prior decade are marked by those crosses. One is a 2007 to 2008 decline. A June 2009 upside cross framed mostly higher expectations through 2013, except for a three-month downside cross in 2010. An early-2013 downside cross followed a prospective monetary-tightening announcement.

Intermarket inflation context

The same weekly cross is used as intermarket inflation context. The bond-market inflation label is read together with dollar, energy, and gold conditions rather than used to forecast a single commodity in isolation.

The crisis-era downside regime is paired with a shift away from commodity-related holdings toward the dollar. The 2013 downside cross is paired with later weakness across energy, precious metals, and agricultural products, plus a stronger dollar.

Weekly TIP/IEI nine- versus 36-week average

A trader should see three inflation-expectation regimes on this weekly TIPS-versus-intermediate-Treasury ratio: the faster average below the slower one through the 2008 collapse and again after the early-2013 rollover, and above it from mid-2009 into the 2013 peak. The points were read from the published chart axes; the source printed only the final 9-week and 36-week readings (0.9119 and 0.9053).
A trader should see three inflation-expectation regimes on this weekly TIPS-versus-intermediate-Treasury ratio: the faster average below the slower one through the 2008 collapse and again after the early-2013 rollover, and above it from mid-2009 into the 2013 peak. The points were read from the published chart axes; the source printed only the final 9-week and 36-week readings (0.9119 and 0.9053).TIP/IEI · weekly · 2008-02-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2016-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

The source uses exponential averages of weekly closes (9-week / 45-day and 36-week / 180-day). Mid-sample values are approximate visual readings from the raster, not a table.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
54 of 57 in the Moving-average crossover track
201724-28 pp.Next on Moving-average crossoverNormalized Laguerre zero-axis warning as a two-marker constructionSubstitute a short-alpha Laguerre filter for a short-term moving average, then redraw that value as a static zero axis so each column is the signed distance from the latest close to the filter.
All readings on this track · 57 readings
  1. 1988Constructing moving averages: weights, smoothing and crossovers
  2. 1988Constructing breadth and average trend states
  3. 1989Evaluating an always-in-the-market moving-average crossover
  4. 1989Constructing symmetric market-breadth ratio accumulators
  5. 1989Objective crossover tests of Fibonacci wave ratios
  6. 1990Volume-adjusted moving average construction
  7. 1991Constructing a mechanical crossover on a synthetic price series
  8. 1991A two-speed breadth reading for intermediate market direction
  9. 1992A Deutschemark yield map with dual-average and relative-strength timing
  10. 1992Confirming currency-fund trends with a crossover and a filter
  11. 1992A moving-average slope filter for crossover signals
  12. 1992Occupancy and split-sample tests for average crossovers
  13. 1994Gold-mining seasonality and bond-fund duration switching
  14. 1994Price oscillator from two moving averages
  15. 1995Explicit exponential weights and binary entry filters
  16. 1996Currency futures crossover with slope, bond filter, and stop
  17. 1996Two-market average crossover entry with a fixed stop
  18. 1997Construction of a filtered three-average crossover
  19. 1998Two-group exponential average compression as a trend filter
  20. 1998Constructing r-squared trend filters with dual lookbacks
  21. 1998Moving-average length is a habit, not a secret
  22. 1999Solving the close that triggers a moving-average crossover
  23. 2000Kagi yang and yin control versus crossover noise
  24. 2000Constructing simple moving average crossover filters
  25. 2000Building a vertical-horizontal filter to gate trend signals
  26. 2000Two-average crossover as a check on trend following
  27. 2003Stacked exponential-average retracement entries and extreme stops
  28. 2003Evaluating oscillator thresholds against optimized crossovers
  29. 2004Constructing a semicycle trend-quality filter
  30. 2004Commodity subgroups labeled by crossover, support, or convergence
  31. 2004Full-window evaluation of crossover trend systems
  32. 2004Two-average trend filters as a classroom critique of indicator stacking
  33. 2005Three-layer confirmation from a moving-average cross, candles, and Q-stick
  34. 2005Charting put prices beside an equity breakdown
  35. 2005Range-gated moving-average crossover construction
  36. 2007Anticipating a simple-average crossover with a threshold-close
  37. 2007Anticipating moving-average crossovers one bar ahead
  38. 2007Lead-series moving-average crossovers with a stochastic and relative strength index
  39. 2007Next-bar SMA crossover hypotheses from theoretical crossing values
  40. 2007Anticipating a moving-average crossover before confirmation
  41. 2007A three-horizon moving-average stack as a construction problem
  42. 2007Confirming trend with regression slope and r-squared
  43. 2008Constructing a multi-timeframe smoothed crossover
  44. 2008Best-day clusters versus trend filters
  45. 2008Allied markets as a confirmation gate for crossover and breakout signals
  46. 2008Weekly exponential-average crossover as a mechanical trend case study
  47. 2010Evaluating a 200-day crossover as long, short, and stand-aside rules
  48. 2010Read a 10-and-40 trend on two neighboring time frames
  49. 2012Sampling unit as a first-class parameter on dual simple moving averages
  50. 2012Constructing index-ETF entries from volatility-index persistence
  51. 2013Moving-average baselines versus crossover signals
  52. 2013Constructing a typical-price and heikin-ashi crossover as one mechanical procedure
  53. 2016A three-gate checklist for longs after a sharp drop
  54. 2016Weekly inflation-ratio crossover for commodity regimes
  55. 2017Normalized Laguerre zero-axis warning as a two-marker construction
  56. 2019Range-weighted construction of an adaptive exponential moving average
  57. 2020Construct a second-pullback entry after a moving-average crossover
By fieldIndicators and filters682 readingsBy year201678 readings
All 108 readings tagged Moving-average crossover
Also on Moving-average crossover5 readings
1992A Deutschemark yield map with dual-average and relative-strength timing1993Paired bond and currency proxies with weekly crossover confirmation1994Gold-mining seasonality and bond-fund duration switching2008Allied markets as a confirmation gate for crossover and breakout signals2016A 9/36 inflation state for a commodity and dollar basket