Constructing seasonal-cycle overlays with channel confirmation

Three construction steps

A natural-cycle construction is specified as three steps. First, fix when the cycle begins. Next, map how it appears on the series. Then combine those dates with a separate technical confirmation before treating a date as a likely major turn.

The overlay in this workflow is a seasonal-cycle: a calendar-anchored rhythm whose candidate turns sit on northern-hemisphere season starts and the midpoints between those starts. Those dates remain candidate windows until a separate chart test shows that the hypothesis is underway.

Season starts and the physical account

Northern-hemisphere seasonal starts are fixed near March 21, June 21, September 23 and December 21, with a possible one-day calendar shift. Those four dates are the first lock in the overlay.

The physical account given for the seasonal-cycle is a 23.5-degree axial tilt that changes hemispheric heating. That tilt is also described as altering magnetospheric particle inflow and magneto-tail geometry.

Seasonal price variation is motivated by crop calendars and quarterly business buying as well as a hypothesized geomagnetic-mood link. The construction still requires chart confirmation rather than the calendar alone.

Cycle-marks, inversions and visual fit

Seasonal dates are plotted as solid cycle-marks. A cycle-mark is a plotted cycle date judged high or low relative to the observation about one-fourth cycle earlier. Marks need not alternate.

Successive same-direction extremes are read as an inversion rather than a broken method. An inversion is two successive highs or two successive lows at cycle dates, assigned to the halfway mark rather than treated as a stationary wave.

Seasonal inversion midpoints are placed near May 5, August 5, November 6 and February 4. Segments between marks and midpoints are judged visually as a fit to the intervening price trend. When those sketched segments roughly follow the intervening price trend, the seasonal-cycle is treated as the dominant-cycle: the primary timing grid.

A half-cycle-hold for shifted extremes

Shorter overlapping cycles can shift the exact extreme. A cycle-based hold is therefore specified as at least half the seasonal interval. That half-cycle-hold is a minimum holding horizon of one-half the marked cycle so shorter overlapping rhythms can finish shifting the extreme.

Under that rule, a March short hypothesis is given room until at least May 5 and possibly June 21. The calendar date opens a window. It does not force an immediate turn.

Price-channel confirmation before a signal

Cycle dates are treated only as candidate windows. A price-channel is a parallel price band used as independent confirmation that a cycle-date hypothesis is actually underway.

A break of the October 1990 to March 1991 up-channel is the confirmation that converts a March short hypothesis into an executable seasonal-trading signal. After that break, a down channel frames the remaining hold.

Without the channel break, the seasonal-cycle date is not treated as a likely major turn. The calendar can motivate the marks. Only the price-channel shows that the hypothesis is occurring on the chart.