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2015issue C118-11

A three-layer permission stack: moving averages, a price channel, and weekly levels

The archive workflow reads market direction, then a single-name regime-stack, then an eight-period high-low price-channel. Weekly support-resistance is transferred onto the daily chart only to mark where those channel closes have historically hesitated.

  • Overall market direction is read first from the 50-period simple moving average of a broad large-cap fund, which is the index-direction-filter, on the stated premise that prices trend 60 percent of the time.
  • A name becomes an uptrend or downtrend candidate only after the regime-stack aligns price with the 50-period average and orders the 20-, 50-, and 200-period averages; the long-side screen also requires daily volume above one million shares.
  • The price-channel trigger is the first close beyond the outer eight-period high-low band, with an ask-referenced-stop just beyond the opposite band on high-volume names and an earnings-flat exit the session before a scheduled release.
  • Weekly support-resistance transferred onto the daily chart marked hesitation or reversal zones on the illustrated names rather than generating the entry.
Entries in this reading3 entries

Three permissions in order

TradersWeek, as an editorial reading, treats this combination as a sequence of permissions rather than a chart covered in overlays. The first permission is directional. The second is a single-name regime-stack. The third is a close beyond a short price-channel. Weekly support-resistance is brought across from the weekly chart only to show where those closes have historically hesitated.

The archive presents the same order as a working workflow. It does not present the layers as optional decorations.

The index-direction-filter

Overall market direction is first read from a 50-period simple moving average of a broad large-cap exchange-traded fund. That read is the index-direction-filter. The stated premise is that prices trend 60 percent of the time.

Only after that market-level moving-average is in view does the workflow move to individual names.

The regime-stack on individual names

The long-side screen requires daily volume above one million shares, price above the 50-period simple moving average, the 20-period average above the 50-period average, and the 50-period average above the 200-period average. That alignment is the regime-stack for an uptrend candidate.

The short-side screen inverts that stack: price below the 50-period simple moving average, the 20-period average below the 50-period average, and the 50-period average below the 200-period average.

The moving-average here is a lookback average of sequential prices used as a directional baseline and as that stacked regime filter across the 20-, 50-, and 200-period windows.

The price-channel as the close-based trigger

An eight-period simple moving average of highs and an eight-period simple moving average of lows form the trading channel. That band is the price-channel. The stated entry is the first close beyond the outer band, with a protective exit placed just beyond the opposite band.

On high-volume names the protective order is an ask-referenced-stop. It is referenced to the ask rather than the last trade so an isolated print is less likely to force an exit.

How the illustrated names used the channel

In the illustrated Humana uptrend, longs are taken on a close above the eight-period channel and closed on a close below it, except that the position is exited the session before an earnings release. That override is the earnings-flat rule.

In the illustrated National Oilwell downtrend the same channel rules are reversed: shorts are opened on a close below the eight-period channel and covered on a close above it.

Weekly support-resistance as hesitation marks

Weekly support-resistance transferred onto the daily chart marked hesitation or reversal zones at 137.65, 156.56, 166.50, and 182.79 on Humana and at 86.43, 76.66, and 58.41 on National Oilwell. Those prior reaction levels are taken from a weekly chart so longer-horizon pauses can be read against shorter-horizon channel signals.

Editorially, those weekly levels are imported only to mark where channel triggers have historically hesitated. They are not described as a separate entry signal.

The same pairing across chart spans

The 50-period average plus eight-period high-low channel pairing is described as usable from one-minute through monthly charts, after a liquidity screen of more than one million shares a day and a share price above 5 that yields a universe of more than 300 names.

During a multi-month range in the same broad fund between 198 and 212, a late-March scan listed 143 names meeting the uptrend stack and 43 meeting the downtrend stack, with holds described as typically shorter than in trending conditions.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
50 of 55 in the Price channel track
201622-25 pp.Next on Price channelEntropy-diff as a regime switch between trend following and a price channelDaily closes can be quantized as up, down, or split-flat, then scored with Shannon entropy on those two outcomes.
All readings on this track · 55 readings
  1. 1988Constructing price channels from trendlines
  2. 1988Three-point curved trend channel construction
  3. 1988Least-squares construction of channel trendlines
  4. 1988Three-zone price channel from quadratic smoothing
  5. 1989A variable-sensitivity stochastic built on three-sigma bounds
  6. 1989Close-minus-average oscillator for channel extremes
  7. 1989The six-stage hunt as a critique of one-click heroics
  8. 1990Fair-value gaps and a copper moving-average channel
  9. 1990Diversify markets, not systems, to cut trend-system variance
  10. 1991Constructing trendlines, price channels, and close-based breakouts
  11. 1991Constructing seasonal-cycle overlays with channel confirmation
  12. 1993Lag-compensated exponential trend channel construction
  13. 1993Constructing a lead-lag filter and price channel as one stack
  14. 1993Three stochastic warnings still need price-channel confirmation
  15. 1993Lead-lag smoothing for weekly trend-channel construction
  16. 1993Constructing zero-net-lag price channels
  17. 1995From a downtrend-line break to a regression channel
  18. 1995Validated trendline and price channel construction
  19. 1995Constructing price envelopes from averages, volatility, and regression
  20. 1996Constructing trendlines and channels from explicit swings
  21. 1998Fifty percent retracement as a channel regime test
  22. 1998Close-based channel rails as daily scenario maps
  23. 1999Constructing support, resistance, trendlines, and price channels
  24. 2001Cycle composites, price channels, and two-sided signals
  25. 2001Testing horizontal price channels with stops and scale
  26. 2002A two-stage momentum-shift and price-channel process
  27. 2002Wave-by-wave channel construction for Elliott counts
  28. 2002Affine channels as reusable trade hypotheses
  29. 2004Stress-test seasonal windows across regimes, then add channels
  30. 2004Regime permission from trendlines, channels, and range edges
  31. 2004Weekly-average and price-channel states on sector depositary baskets
  32. 2005Oil services catch-up after channel resistance breaks
  33. 2005Constructing a volatility-normalized cycle index
  34. 2005How a Darvas channel becomes a complete entry and exit procedure
  35. 2005Clustered Fibonacci and channel levels in news-driven forex
  36. 2005Treat a consolidating currency market as a time-frame problem
  37. 2005Channel walls that flip roles or recapture price
  38. 2006Stacking candlesticks, crossovers, and price channels
  39. 2006Failed uptrend channel breakout left the euro rangebound
  40. 2006Constructing a Wilson relative price channel from a range-bound strength index
  41. 2007Range bars change when a Bollinger squeeze counts as a breakout
  42. 2009One testable SPY procedure for a price channel, a trend rule, and a seasonal overlay
  43. 2010A gold-miner channel plan from value to false breakouts
  44. 2010A multi-timeframe channel from value to an overvalued zone
  45. 2010Asymmetric price channel construction for congested markets
  46. 2011Phasing many cycles at once with nested envelopes
  47. 2012Constructing adaptive horizontal price channels
  48. 2014Confirming support with trendlines, channels, and retracements
  49. 2015News-sentiment confirmation for support, channel, and volume tests
  50. 2015A three-layer permission stack: moving averages, a price channel, and weekly levels
  51. 2016Entropy-diff as a regime switch between trend following and a price channel
  52. 2017Competing rulers on a pound chart after Brexit
  53. 2017Test consolidation channel breakouts as one procedure
  54. 2020Constructing late-trend longs with a price channel, gap breakout, and trailing stop
  55. 2025Using IBM's multi-year price channel as a breakout teaching case
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