Grade closing tick before a next-session breadth hypothesis

What closing tick counts

Closing tick is the number of issues whose final print was an uptick minus the number whose final print was a downtick. An uptick is a last trade printed above the immediately prior trade, and a downtick is a last trade printed below the immediately prior trade.

The reading is published each day for more than one market and is used to judge whether the close favored buyers or sellers.

A participation reading at the close

As market-breadth, closing tick is a participation reading based on how many issues finish on an uptick versus a downtick rather than on a single index print. The first job of the reading is simply to say which side finished the session with more last prints in its favor.

The next-session-check

The historical check covered 417 New York Stock Exchange sessions and asked whether that day's closing tick lined up with the following day's index move.

A next-session-check compares today's closing-tick reading with the following session's index direction to test whether the breadth print is informative. The archive workflow did not stop at the sign of the close. It asked how large the net print was before treating the next-session lean as more than mild.

Grading a positive close

A positive closing tick below 700 was treated as only a mild association with a higher following session. A closing tick above 700 was treated as a stronger next-session upside association than a merely positive reading.

On the positive-side chart, a reading above 300 was described as the start of a mildly probable next-day advance.

Grading a negative close

Negative readings were treated as only mildly associated with a lower following session until they fell below -450. A closing tick below -450 was treated as a strong next-session downside association in that sample.

Editorial reading of the grades

Editorial interpretation: the evaluation habit is to keep an ordinary positive or negative close in the mild column. Use the next-session-check to ask whether today's print is still only a lean or has reached the stronger associations used in that sample. The archive facts describe that historical grading. They do not turn closing tick into a stand-alone rule.