Nasdaq tech cycle stages with a 15-day average and trendlines

A dated Nasdaq advance and its reversal

The archive follows Nasdaq Composite prices that advanced from October 1999 into early March 2000, then reversed sharply over about two weeks in early to mid-April.

Editorial frame: TradersWeek uses that sequence to teach how a four-stage market cycle, a 15-day moving average, and price-volume structure can mark when a sector rally is aging and which names still hold their trend.

Four stages on a 15-day average

A 15-day moving average of closes is used to identify four market stages: a quiet range, an advance above a rising average, a flattening peak, and a decline after the average turns down.

In this workflow the moving average is a 15-day average of closing prices used to judge whether trend direction is rising, flattening, or reversing. The four-stage cycle runs from a quiet range, to a breakout advance, to a peak and stall, then to decline.

Support, resistance, and the turn from stage 3

After the January 3 high and January 4 decline, the January 3 high and January 7 low are treated as resistance and support to test whether the advance is still intact. Those prior swing highs and lows are the reference levels after a sharp reversal day.

The chart sequence marks a rally toward 4553 near resistance at 4550, then a retracement to 4291 as the index moves from stage 3 into stage 4.

Money flow during the stage-3 stall

Money-flow structure is shown as part of reading Broadvision during the stage-3 stall, pairing volume-price behavior with the cycle stages.

Volume-price analysis here means reading money-flow and price-volume behavior together to judge whether participation supports or weakens a stage of the trend.

Names that still held the advance

Adobe Systems, Advanced Micro Devices, and Boston Scientific are presented as later-cycle survivors that stayed above rising trendlines and a still-upward 15-day average after the April 14 Nasdaq drop. A survivor stock, in this usage, is a name that stays above its rising trendline and moving average while the broader sector breaks down. A trendline is a line drawn through successive price lows or highs to test whether a stock is still holding its advance.

Adobe began rising in February after a November-to-late-January correction and, even on April 14, held above its upward trendline.

Advanced Micro Devices entered stage 2 in early March with a positively sloped 15-day average, though by early May that advance looked close to ending.

Boston Scientific recovered in early March after a January-February decline and held above its trendline on April 14.