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2014issue C078-9

Evaluating trendline swing size per market

Automatic trendlines need a swing-size input on every symbol. Matching that setting to a holding period is a style choice and does not by itself show that the resulting lines are useful. Two separate checks start at identification time: line respect, and break follow-through.

  • Automatic trendlines use a swing-size input to connect large swings or small swings, and a multi-symbol scan still needs a value for each symbol.
  • Matching the swing-size input to a preferred holding period is a style choice and does not show that the resulting lines are useful.
  • Line respect is checked from identification time, not from the earlier highs or lows used to draw the line.
  • Line respect and break follow-through are independent tests, and either one can justify further study of a swing-size setting.
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Current trackTrendline128 readings

Swing size is a setting, not a result

Automatic trendline construction uses a swing-size input that selects whether the line connects large swings or small swings. A multi-symbol scan still requires a swing-size value for each symbol. That value can be one shared default or a value chosen per symbol.

Matching the swing-size input to a preferred holding period is a style choice. It does not by itself show that the resulting lines are useful. Individual symbols may stay aligned with lines built from one swing size more consistently than with lines built from another.

Per-market fit means choosing or testing the swing-size input on one symbol at a time rather than imposing one default on an entire scan.

Two tests start at identification time

One evaluation asks whether price continues to respect the identified line for a substantial interval after the line is drawn. That check of line respect starts at identification time, the first moment a candidate trendline is treated as drawn. It does not start at the earlier highs or lows used to draw the line.

A second evaluation asks whether, when the line is broken, price then moves substantially in the break direction and does so repeatedly. That break follow-through check is made on its own.

The two tests are independent. Either one can justify further study of a given swing-size setting.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
48 of 53 in the Trendline track
201842-43 pp.Next on TrendlineIntermarket regime stress and the January 2018 trendline breakRebuild the dollar, policy-rate, and implied-volatility tape before treating a trendline gap as the story.
All readings on this track · 53 readings
  1. 1984Constructing the slow stochastic from a five-session range
  2. 1985Gold-proxy trendlines and a January support base
  3. 1988Construct a five-week new-highs total as a breadth chart
  4. 1988Stacked channel, trendline, and moving-average warnings in 1987
  5. 1989Auditing fifth-wave counts with equality, Fibonacci, and trendlines
  6. 1990Money-fund maturity as a companion Eurodollar chart
  7. 1990Constructing wave targets from ratios, triangles and trendlines
  8. 1992Nested time frames for trend and channel signals
  9. 1992A pre-trade checklist for trendline breaks and loss limits
  10. 1992Bond-fund timing inside trendlines, retracements, and dual averages
  11. 1992Two-point trendline construction from rise over run
  12. 1993Disposable chart ratings from confirmed level tests
  13. 1993When trend channels define fair value after dislocations
  14. 1993Valid trendline anchors for three-part reversals
  15. 1994Pairing stochastic divergence with trendline invalidation
  16. 1995Constructing measured targets after trendline breaks
  17. 1997A three-part pullback plan with RSI, Fibonacci retracements, and a tight trendline
  18. 1998Rule-based Trendline construction for testable entries
  19. 2000Constructing trendlines, breaks, and role reversal
  20. 2000Constructing speed resistance lines from trend extremes
  21. 2000Nasdaq tech cycle stages with a 15-day average and trendlines
  22. 2002Two-session candlesticks that test support, resistance, and trendlines
  23. 2002Constructing Fibonacci ratio grids from a peak and a trough
  24. 2002Evaluate trendline geometry before trusting a breakout
  25. 2002Trendline, volume, and breakout hypotheses versus cycle-end stories
  26. 2003Writing the long S&P 500 trendline and cycle junction as one hypothesis
  27. 2003A three-event trendline reversal checklist
  28. 2003Reverse-engineered Relative Strength Index price curves
  29. 2003Two-anchor trendline construction without cut-through
  30. 2004Treat a 15-minute e-mini stair-step as congestion under a daily lid
  31. 2005A 50-day average, a trendline break, and an open barrier flip
  32. 2005Matching a forty-day average to a crude trendline
  33. 2006Constructing a relative spread-strength oscillator for staged cycle confirmation
  34. 2006Constructing a log-change probability line for trend and range rules
  35. 2007Linked cross breaks as dollar-pair filters
  36. 2007A case study in support, resistance, and trendline role reversal on currency charts
  37. 2007Reading trendline breaks in a housing-sector case
  38. 2007Constructing replaceable trendlines for break signals
  39. 2007Reading trendline breaks before the mechanical signal
  40. 2007Trading choppy forex trends with channels and Fibonacci breaks
  41. 2007A stacked hypothesis from wave, trendline, ratio, and candle
  42. 2008Exit rules before entry: trendline, support, and stops
  43. 2008Capitulation headlines need trend confirmation
  44. 2008RSI divergence classes, ratio thresholds, and trendline tests
  45. 2010Support and resistance as falsifiable chart hypotheses
  46. 2012Reading a 2012 software directory as a breakout and channel case study
  47. 2013Treat a currency position as a regime, then map shared levels
  48. 2014Evaluating trendline swing size per market
  49. 2018Intermarket regime stress and the January 2018 trendline break
  50. 2018Weekly and daily Stochastic oscillator construction on a single daily chart
  51. 2018Constructing trendlines, support, and breakout targets from crowd exits
  52. 2019Trendline break and Fibonacci retracement as a falsifiable outlook check
  53. 2019Monthly S&P 500 false-break versus the decade trendline
By fieldTrend and channels181 readingsBy year201489 readings
All 128 readings tagged Trendline
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1984Constructing the slow stochastic from a five-session range1985Gold-proxy trendlines and a January support base1988Constructing price channels from trendlines1988Constructing trend definitions with filters and lines1988Construct a five-week new-highs total as a breadth chart