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1985issue C061-2

Gold-proxy trendlines and a January support base

A listed gold miner that also produced copper and chromite served as a gold-proxy equity for repeated half-point-target trades. Trendlines marked the active advances from 1982 to 1984, and the January 1985 low of 3 3/8 was treated as a support base rather than a finished uptrend.

  • The mining share stayed an ordinary equity even while it stood in for gold-price swings.
  • The book closed each round-trip at a half-point target and therefore needed many repeats, not one extended holding period.
  • Active trading lined up with two marked advances, and follow-up trades were tabulated from 23 May 1983 through 4 June 1984 after the prior March 1982 through March 1983 window had already changed.
  • Editorial reading: trendlines decide when those repeats are even eligible, the January 3 3/8 low is only a support-resistance hypothesis, and a later breakout is a new confirmation rather than last year's tape continuing.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackTrendline128 readingsSupport and resistance170 readingsBreakout confirmation172 readings

A mining share as gold-proxy equity

A listed gold-mining share that also produced copper and chromite was used as a proxy for gold-price swings. It remained an ordinary equity. Used as a gold-proxy equity, the name could track bullion swings while still trading as a common stock.

Many half-point targets instead of one hold

The campaign design was to close each round-trip after a half-point gain. That half-point target put the weight on many completed trades rather than one extended holding period.

Follow-up trades in the same share were tabulated from 23 May 1983 through 4 June 1984. Those entries came after market conditions had changed from the prior March 1982 through March 1983 window.

Trendlines mark when the campaign is on the calendar

On the accompanying price chart, the more active trading windows lined up with an advance from mid-1982 to mid-1983 and another from the last quarter of 1983 through the first half of 1984. Trendlines were marked on that chart.

A trendline is a line along successive highs or lows. It marks whether the mining share's slope is still intact and whether a short-horizon campaign is even on the calendar.

Benguet trade returns, May 1983–June 1984

Five completed Benguet (BE) trades still annualized to 62 percent for the year, but only the May 1983 and May 1984 legs printed triple-digit annualized rates. The middle three trades returned about 4 to 6 percent of the capital at risk. Figures are taken from the published trade blotter, not estimated from the weekly price chart.
Five completed Benguet (BE) trades still annualized to 62 percent for the year, but only the May 1983 and May 1984 legs printed triple-digit annualized rates. The middle three trades returned about 4 to 6 percent of the capital at risk. Figures are taken from the published trade blotter, not estimated from the weekly price chart.Benguet (NYSE: BE) · May 23, 1983 through June 4, 1984 · 1983-05-23T00:00:00.000Z to 1984-06-04T00:00:00.000Z

The source annualized each trade on its own holding period and reported campaign annualized gain as 1,562 / 2,518, or 62.03 percent, versus 163 percent in March 1982–March 1983. After June 1984 it recorded few further trades as gold and Benguet drifted to a January 1985 low of 3 3/8.

The January low as a support hypothesis

From June 1984 onward both gold and the mining share drifted lower and printed two-year lows in January 1985. The January 1985 low of 3 3/8 was treated as a support base from which a later breakout might develop.

Support and resistance here is that repeated price zone. It must hold or fail before the next directional hypothesis is live.

In the last two weeks of January the share advanced from that 3 3/8 area in a short technical rally. After a sharp gold-selling episode the stock was described as still building a base rather than already established in a new uptrend.

A breakout is a sustained move through the support-base boundary that would confirm containment has ended rather than merely pausing. Editorial reading: a later breakout from that base is a new confirmation rather than a continuation of the prior year's tape.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
2 of 53 in the Trendline track
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All readings on this track · 53 readings
  1. 1984Constructing the slow stochastic from a five-session range
  2. 1985Gold-proxy trendlines and a January support base
  3. 1988Construct a five-week new-highs total as a breadth chart
  4. 1988Stacked channel, trendline, and moving-average warnings in 1987
  5. 1989Auditing fifth-wave counts with equality, Fibonacci, and trendlines
  6. 1990Money-fund maturity as a companion Eurodollar chart
  7. 1990Constructing wave targets from ratios, triangles and trendlines
  8. 1992Nested time frames for trend and channel signals
  9. 1992A pre-trade checklist for trendline breaks and loss limits
  10. 1992Bond-fund timing inside trendlines, retracements, and dual averages
  11. 1992Two-point trendline construction from rise over run
  12. 1993Disposable chart ratings from confirmed level tests
  13. 1993When trend channels define fair value after dislocations
  14. 1993Valid trendline anchors for three-part reversals
  15. 1994Pairing stochastic divergence with trendline invalidation
  16. 1995Constructing measured targets after trendline breaks
  17. 1997A three-part pullback plan with RSI, Fibonacci retracements, and a tight trendline
  18. 1998Rule-based Trendline construction for testable entries
  19. 2000Constructing trendlines, breaks, and role reversal
  20. 2000Constructing speed resistance lines from trend extremes
  21. 2000Nasdaq tech cycle stages with a 15-day average and trendlines
  22. 2002Two-session candlesticks that test support, resistance, and trendlines
  23. 2002Constructing Fibonacci ratio grids from a peak and a trough
  24. 2002Evaluate trendline geometry before trusting a breakout
  25. 2002Trendline, volume, and breakout hypotheses versus cycle-end stories
  26. 2003Writing the long S&P 500 trendline and cycle junction as one hypothesis
  27. 2003A three-event trendline reversal checklist
  28. 2003Reverse-engineered Relative Strength Index price curves
  29. 2003Two-anchor trendline construction without cut-through
  30. 2004Treat a 15-minute e-mini stair-step as congestion under a daily lid
  31. 2005A 50-day average, a trendline break, and an open barrier flip
  32. 2005Matching a forty-day average to a crude trendline
  33. 2006Constructing a relative spread-strength oscillator for staged cycle confirmation
  34. 2006Constructing a log-change probability line for trend and range rules
  35. 2007Linked cross breaks as dollar-pair filters
  36. 2007A case study in support, resistance, and trendline role reversal on currency charts
  37. 2007Reading trendline breaks in a housing-sector case
  38. 2007Constructing replaceable trendlines for break signals
  39. 2007Reading trendline breaks before the mechanical signal
  40. 2007Trading choppy forex trends with channels and Fibonacci breaks
  41. 2007A stacked hypothesis from wave, trendline, ratio, and candle
  42. 2008Exit rules before entry: trendline, support, and stops
  43. 2008Capitulation headlines need trend confirmation
  44. 2008RSI divergence classes, ratio thresholds, and trendline tests
  45. 2010Support and resistance as falsifiable chart hypotheses
  46. 2012Reading a 2012 software directory as a breakout and channel case study
  47. 2013Treat a currency position as a regime, then map shared levels
  48. 2014Evaluating trendline swing size per market
  49. 2018Intermarket regime stress and the January 2018 trendline break
  50. 2018Weekly and daily Stochastic oscillator construction on a single daily chart
  51. 2018Constructing trendlines, support, and breakout targets from crowd exits
  52. 2019Trendline break and Fibonacci retracement as a falsifiable outlook check
  53. 2019Monthly S&P 500 false-break versus the decade trendline
By fieldTrend and channels181 readingsBy year198514 readings
All 128 readings tagged Trendline
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