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Research method

Seasonality analysis

Seasonality analysis is a canonical archive-taxonomy method; this registry entry defines its inputs, output and use boundary.

Output
Market-regime classification
Input
Cross-market prices, volatility, carry and portfolio weights
Horizon
Weeks to months
Best use
Put a single trade into a diversified or regime-aware context.

Registry evidence level: backtested. This is a navigation record, not a performance claim.

  • Input: Cross-market prices, volatility, carry and portfolio weights.
  • Output: market-regime.
  • Use boundary: Put a single trade into a diversified or regime-aware context.
The graph6

How the method is built, and where it has been read

Depends on

Read in the archive24 of 85 readings

1987Seasonal commodity spreads as portfolio slotsIntermarket and spreads1989Weekday price paths are regime-dependentSeasonality and regimes1989Evaluating venue volume as a speculation-breadth signalMarket breadth1990Calendar windows as testable index-futures proceduresSeasonality and regimes1990Constructing nested four-year market cyclesCycles and spectral analysis1991Keep a decade-year only when it differs from the overall-meanSeasonality and regimes1991A thirty-name price-weighted average as a seasonal regime classroomSeasonality and regimes1991Ranked half-year rate changes as an equity signal filterIntermarket and spreads1991Name the window, then combine leadersTime series and forecasting1991Demographic wave as a market-regime overlaySeasonality and regimes1992Construct a bond-led dividend-to-bond-yield regime firstIntermarket and spreads1994Monthly drawdown limits when cash competes with equityDrawdown and survival1994Gold as a cycle clock for commodities and yieldsIntermarket and spreads1994Evaluating DJIA weakness inside the quarterly futures cycleSeasonality and regimes1994Extreme short-rate declines as equity regime contextIntermarket and spreads1994Seasonal range regimes as a futures context overlaySeasonality and regimes1995Inflation-ratio overlays, peso breaks and election cyclesIntermarket and spreads1995Read one equity position on a joint yield-regime cardIntermarket and spreads1996Nested calendar clocks in long-bond futuresSeasonality and regimes1996Evaluating presidential party terms as equity regimesSeasonality and regimes1996Evaluate S&P 500 seasonal windows before using leverageSeasonality and regimes1996A dominant cycle is a baseline, not a reprintSeasonality and regimes1996Seasonality and presidential election cycle regimesSeasonality and regimes1997Stacking calendar regimes around election yearsSeasonality and regimes
This registry entry describes a research method. It is not investment advice and does not make a performance claim.