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Research method

Seasonal analysis

Seasonal analysis is a canonical archive-taxonomy method; this registry entry defines its inputs, output and use boundary.

Output
Market-regime classification
Input
Cross-market prices, volatility, carry and portfolio weights
Horizon
Weeks to months
Best use
Put a single trade into a diversified or regime-aware context.

Registry evidence level: backtested. This is a navigation record, not a performance claim.

  • Input: Cross-market prices, volatility, carry and portfolio weights.
  • Output: market-regime.
  • Use boundary: Put a single trade into a diversified or regime-aware context.
The graph6

How the method is built, and where it has been read

Depends on

Read in the archive24 of 93 readings

1982Critiquing Fourier, Elliott, and seasonal commodity modelsCycles and spectral analysis1985Industry leadership carryover as a bull-regime testSeasonality and regimes1986Two gates for setup and operator readinessDecision process1986Calendar-locked averaging of price-change histogram categoriesStatistical tests1987Evaluating weekly price cycles with autocorrelation cutoffsCycles and spectral analysis1988Fourier cycles versus calendar seasonal regimesCycles and spectral analysis1990Time-only cycle dates in a Treasury bond case studyCycles and spectral analysis1990The January barometer as a rest-of-year scoring problemSeasonality and regimes1990Constant-dollar regimes, the value line, and nested cyclesSeasonality and regimes1991A thirty-name price-weighted average as a seasonal regime classroomSeasonality and regimes1991Testing the July-August summer rally as an occurrence countSeasonality and regimes1992The four-year election cycle as an equity regime mapSeasonality and regimes1992Building a shared workbook for calendar seasonality testsSeasonality and regimes1992Constructing detrended tests for calendar seasonalitySeasonality and regimes1992A semiconductor seasonal-index before the relative-strength overlaySeasonality and regimes1992Lock the holiday window as a regime, then veto resistanceSeasonality and regimes1993A three-sleeve regime map for equities, rates, and futuresPortfolio construction1994Quality screens and dividend-yield regime mapsPortfolio construction1994Constructing seasonal slots from windows, analog years, and implied volatilitySeasonality and regimes1994Evaluating eight-year election regimesSeasonality and regimes1994Seasonal range regimes as a futures context overlaySeasonality and regimes1995Seasonal and political cycle maps as tested abstention regimesSeasonality and regimes1995Regime-aware stock screening with intermarket contextIntermarket and spreads1996Sector rotation across economic cycle phasesSeasonality and regimes
This registry entry describes a research method. It is not investment advice and does not make a performance claim.