Research method
Commitment of Traders
Commitment of Traders is a canonical archive-taxonomy method; this registry entry defines its inputs, output and use boundary.
- Output
- Market-regime classification
- Input
- Cross-market prices, volatility, carry and portfolio weights
- Horizon
- Weeks to months
- Best use
- Put a single trade into a diversified or regime-aware context.
- Input: Cross-market prices, volatility, carry and portfolio weights.
- Output: market-regime.
- Use boundary: Put a single trade into a diversified or regime-aware context.
The graph2
How the method is built, and where it has been read
Depends on
Often reviewed together
Seasonal analysis4 readings
Often reviewed together
Contrarian strategy4 readings
Read in the archive21 readings
1990Constructing a COT index from the commercial-speculative spread1990Crowded price rules need abstention and a regime overlay1991Advisor consensus fails as weekly contrarian timing1996When speculative flows decouple bonds from stocks1996Score each trader class against itself, then slice by month1996Pork belly Commitment of Traders signals depend on the seasonal window2002Constructing regime context from trader commitment nets2002Trader net positions as regime context for chart setups2003Three states for a daily futures advisor consensus2005Commitment of Traders open-interest extremes as regime filters2005Commitment of Traders participant imbalance as regime context for commodity position trades2006Housing slowdown as a cross-market regime lesson2006Lagged commercial nets and a weekly accumulation trigger2007Evaluate an index stance as a spread between trader books2011Constructing weekly participant positioning ledgers2012Commitment of Traders as crowded-book context, not a copy signal2014Constructing Commitment of Traders regime context when commercial hedgers fail2014When Commitment of Traders smart money fails as an intermarket regime filter2015Leave a yen bottom unconfirmed until gold and positioning agree2016Stacking volume, open interest, and trader books around expiration2025Post-crash cash and regime-aware watchlists
This registry entry describes a research method. It is not investment advice and does not make a performance claim.