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2011issue C0277

Screen futures liquidity with open interest and volume

A futures liquidity rank first scales every market to the same dollar swing, then multiplies that size by open interest and a volume factor. TradersWeek editorial: judge the book executable before you judge the chart attractive.

  • Scale each futures product to the contracts needed for an equal dollar profit so listed markets share the same three-year dollar swing.
  • Relative contract liquidity multiplies that equal-dollar count by total open interest and a volume factor so markets can be ordered by how easily contracts can be bought or sold.
  • Use open interest analysis and volume confirmation together as a liquidity filter, and treat one or no activity dots as a harder book to trade.
  • Read every ranking column only against other values in the same column, and use effective percent margin to compare capital lock-up across contracts.
Entries in this reading3 entries

Rank the book before the chart

A futures ranking can be read as a pre-trade screen. The historical workflow first converts every listed market to a common dollar swing, then asks how easily those contracts can be bought or sold.

That screen is a liquidity filter: it keeps only markets whose activity, depth, and cost profile can support an executable order. Attractiveness of the chart is a later question.

Scale every market to the same dollar swing

Contracts to trade for equal dollar profit equal tick dollar value times the three-year maximum price excursion. That count scales listed futures to the same dollar swing.

A futures liquidity rank then multiplies contract point value by the largest three-year price move, by open interest, and by a volume factor so markets can be ordered by how easily contracts can be bought or sold.

Relative contract liquidity states the same construction as a product: the equal-dollar contract count times total open interest times a volume factor. The volume factor is defined as the greater of 1 or exp(ln(volume)/ln(5000) - 2). It is usually a number from 1 to 4 that adjusts the rank for low or very high traded volume.

Equal-dollar contract counts for listed futures

Each bar is how many contracts of that market were required, in this monthly ranking, to stand the same three-year dollar profit as the others. A two-year Euro Schatz sat at 29 contracts and live cattle at 20, while 30-day federal funds and three-year Commonwealth bonds sat at 1, so size is not the liquidity score. Figures are the Contracts to Trade for Equal Dollar Profit column from the February 2011 Trading Liquidity: Futures table, which scales every listed market by tick dollar value times the three-year maximum price excursion. Markets are left in the source’s liquidity order so the size column can be read against the rank, not mistaken for it.
Each bar is how many contracts of that market were required, in this monthly ranking, to stand the same three-year dollar profit as the others. A two-year Euro Schatz sat at 29 contracts and live cattle at 20, while 30-day federal funds and three-year Commonwealth bonds sat at 1, so size is not the liquidity score. Figures are the Contracts to Trade for Equal Dollar Profit column from the February 2011 Trading Liquidity: Futures table, which scales every listed market by tick dollar value times the three-year maximum price excursion. Markets are left in the source’s liquidity order so the size column can be read against the rank, not mistaken for it.February 2011 monthly ranking

The source weights every listed future equally on a three-year lookback for maximum price excursion. Relative contract liquidity is then that size times open interest times a volume factor, but that product is printed only as a dot bar, not as a number.

Use open interest and volume as the filter

Open interest analysis reads outstanding futures positions as a capacity input when ranking how easily a contract can be bought or sold. A large open book is not enough on its own.

Volume confirmation uses traded volume, often as that volume factor, to confirm that listed open interest is actually turning over. Thin volume down-weights the rank. Very high volume can lift it.

Together they decide whether the equal-dollar size you just computed can be worked. The rank is a filter on executability, not a score of how interesting the market looks.

Read each column only against itself

Each column in the ranking is a proportional comparison and is meaningful only against other values in the same column. A figure that looks large in isolation is not a stand-alone verdict.

Markets marked with one or no activity dots are presented as low-activity and harder to trade than markets with many dots. That mark is part of the liquidity filter, not a comment on the chart pattern.

Effective percent margin is margin dollars divided by the three-year dollar range of the contract, then multiplied by one hundred. It expresses capital lock-up so posted margin can be compared across markets that have already been scaled to the same dollar swing.

Compare stocks with share turnover

For equities, trading activity is treated as a liquidity proxy equal to period volume as a percentage of shares outstanding. That share turnover is the stock-market analogue of the futures volume check: it asks whether listed shares are actually changing hands.

The futures side still leans on open interest as the capacity input and on the volume factor as confirmation. The equity side has no open-interest column, so share turnover carries the liquidity question alone.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
22 of 40 in the Volume confirmation track
201177-77 pp.Next on Volume confirmationFilter executable futures with liquidity and open interestTreat a futures chart as a candidate only after a liquidity filter ranks how readily size can be bought or sold.
All readings on this track · 40 readings
  1. 1988Constructing volume-confirmation overlays on OHLC spreadsheet charts
  2. 1989Commodity advance-decline from delivery months
  3. 1989The most-active list as a three-layer breadth lab
  4. 1989Constructing a yield-curve volume-breadth composite
  5. 1989A bond-futures case study in support, volume, and confirmation
  6. 1989Volume-scaled price boxes and volume cycles
  7. 1990Futures-signed on-balance volume construction
  8. 1990Self-relative volume boxes for news-free breakouts
  9. 1990Broadening swings, demand tests, and volume filters
  10. 1991A same-session pressure test of breadth and volume share
  11. 1991Tick extremes that confirm double tops and bottoms
  12. 1991Constructing auction fuel from volume and open interest
  13. 1994Constructing On-balance volume with smoothing and timeframe confirmation
  14. 1996A volume-gated moving-average trend combination
  15. 1996Constructing four-state range-volume bars
  16. 1997Failed trade review of a descending-triangle breakdown
  17. 1997Construct a head-and-shoulders before the neckline break
  18. 2004Volume confirmation is not optional for a head-and-shoulders reversal
  19. 2007Constructing a three-factor volume-price confirmation filter
  20. 2007Constructing a three-condition moving-average entry with a volume filter
  21. 2008Breakout rules that wait for volume and liquidity
  22. 2011Screen futures liquidity with open interest and volume
  23. 2011Filter executable futures with liquidity and open interest
  24. 2012Rank listed futures by liquidity before a forecast chooses the name
  25. 2012Filter futures liquidity using open interest and volume
  26. 2013Pre-trade futures liquidity as an execution filter
  27. 2014A futures liquidity screen from range, open interest and volume
  28. 2014Evaluating futures contract liquidity before execution
  29. 2014Constructing defended price lines from volume clusters
  30. 2014Filter futures by equal-dollar size, open interest, and volume
  31. 2015Filter futures ideas by ranked contract liquidity
  32. 2017Screen listed futures for execution liquidity first
  33. 2017Filter futures orders by liquidity, open interest, and volume
  34. 2018Using open interest and volume to rank futures liquidity
  35. 2018Score listed futures as an execution menu before the setup
  36. 2019Filtering futures orders with liquidity, open interest and volume
  37. 2019Futures liquidity as an execution filter
  38. 2020A futures liquidity board as a pre-trade execution filter
  39. 2020Sequenced volume and golden-cross breakout rules
  40. 2020Use a listed-futures liquidity filter before execution
All 54 readings tagged Volume confirmation
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