2000issue C041-5
Prior-day candles, open confirmation, and same-session stops
A few prior sessions of open, high, low, and close form a candlestick read used as the next session's directional hypothesis. Whether that forecast is live is checked in the first 15 to 30 minutes after the open by scoring the stock and a related index, and the procedure aims to be flat by the session's end.
- A few prior sessions of open, high, low, and close are treated as enough history to form a candlestick read used as the next session's directional hypothesis.
- The first 15 to 30 minutes after the open score the stock and a related market index with or against that forecast, producing four states that authorize a position, require a wait, or require standing aside.
- Both the stock and the index moving against the forecast requires standing aside even if the name later reverses.
- A tight trailing stop is the usual exit, and remaining or sideways positions are closed at least 30 minutes before the close so overnight news is not carried.
A prior-session read for the next open
Open-high-low-close formations, read over a few prior sessions, turn a repeatable chart condition into a directional hypothesis for the next session. A few prior sessions of open, high, low, and close are treated as enough history for that read.
A candle body maps open-to-close movement. Wicks map the session extremes. A rising session is drawn differently from a declining one, and equal open and close leave no body.
Multi-candle combinations are grouped as reversal or continuation setups. A bullish pattern typically has a bearish inverse. The read is taken from the prior session so it can speak to today and sometimes the next session.
From a short list to two candidates
Pattern screening is meant to reduce a universe of about 30 names to at most two same-day candidates, each with a pre-stated likely direction.
Four states after the open
A single testable procedure then uses the prior-day pattern, post-open stock and index behavior, and a short holding window to decide enter, wait, or stand aside.
Whether the forecast is live is checked in the first 15 to 30 minutes after the open by scoring two binaries: the stock with or against the forecast, and a related market index with or against it. That scoring produces four states.
Both the stock and the index confirming the forecast authorizes a position regardless of the print. Both moving against the forecast requires standing aside even if the name later reverses.
If only one of the stock or the index confirms, a position is allowed only when the stock begins to trend in the forecast direction within 30 minutes of the open. When the index disagrees, the stock must also be near the prior close.
Continuation stays inside a short window
A reversal that behaves as expected can be followed with continuation patterns on the same name for two or three sessions.
Overnight holding is treated as extra risk because corporate announcements often arrive after the close and economic releases often arrive before the next open. The procedure aims to be flat by the session's end.
Trail the open position, then flatten
The usual exit is a pre-placed, periodically advanced stop that bounds a loss or locks an open gain before overnight news can change the exposure. In this workflow the stop is tight, typically a quarter of a currency unit from the open position, and it is advanced on each same-size favorable move.
Remaining or sideways positions are closed at least 30 minutes before the close, or earlier if the market reverses.
All readings on this track · 54 readings
- 1990Constructing three-session rally and reaction volume signals
- 1991Constructing candlestick real bodies and multi-session patterns
- 1991Treat a candlestick reversal as incomplete until %D confirms it
- 1991Filtering candlestick signals with stochastic percent-D
- 1991Constructing compressed candlestick summaries
- 1993Intraday candlestick confirmation with oscillators
- 1993Candlestick hypotheses from a 1993 reading list
- 1994License candlestick signals with oscillators and weekly vetoes
- 1995Real-body support, resistance, and close-through breakouts
- 1997Weekly reversal as a three-part hypothesis
- 1998Turning fear levels into testable rules with a psychological matrix
- 2000Evaluating three-bar reversal reliability
- 2000Prior-day candles, open confirmation, and same-session stops
- 2000Intraday candlestick volume confirmation for daytrading
- 2001Count the key reversal up before coding a mechanical exit
- 2001Rising and falling three continuation candle construction
- 2002Treat a moving average as a contested fence
- 2003Candlestick signals need support and a risk-reward screen
- 2003Constructing one-day reversal tops and bottoms
- 2003Chart sentiment as a regime filter for hourly stochastic entries
- 2004Confirming index reversals with candlesticks, stochastics and averages
- 2004The harami inner close as a reversal barometer
- 2004Constructing a true-range volume power-shift filter
- 2005Weighing reversal clusters against moving-average support
- 2005Candlestick exits confirmed by overbought stochastics
- 2005Confirming piercing patterns with stochastics and moving averages
- 2006Candlestick cluster exits confirmed by overbought stochastics
- 2007Three black crows become a trade hypothesis only after regime, trend and nearby levels
- 2008Asymmetrical RSI lookbacks for divergence and candle confirmation
- 2008A permission checklist for the end of a trend
- 2010Mechanical entries still need confirmation gates
- 2010Crude oil as a case study in candlestick session reading
- 2010Gold weekly candles and the thousand resistance breakout
- 2010A three-layer gold chart drill from waves to candle confirmation
- 2011Why entry scans fail without trend filters
- 2011Price-zone oscillator trend-regime rules
- 2011A candlestick checklist before commodity entries
- 2013Step candle construction at price turning points
- 2013Two-bar step-candle construction
- 2014Small-range bars as a timed volume-climax hypothesis
- 2014Constructing volume-scaled candlestick charts
- 2015Weekly range midpoints as support and resistance
- 2015Constructing weekly body-midpoint pattern codes
- 2015Evaluating encoded candlestick sequence hypotheses
- 2015Constructing a breakout relative-strength index from two-day range candles
- 2016A three-gate classroom on hourly sterling
- 2016Fibonacci retracement as a pre-commitment stop map
- 2017Nine-zone filter for decade-level breakouts
- 2017Constructing pin-bar and inside-bar setups
- 2017Two-bar soldier and crow rules become a system only after filters and exits
- 2017Confirm a one-white-soldier or one-black-crow before entry
- 2018Session control from marubozu and engulfing geometry
- 2019Volume, acceleration, and candle filters on a completed double bottom
- 2019Sector-filtered candlestick scans and predrawn stops