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2003issue C091-7

Chart sentiment as a regime filter for hourly stochastic entries

Treat an index of chart sentiment as a regime gate, not a trade trigger. Map high, low, bullish, and bearish bands from the price series, then keep or drop an hourly cross-stochastic entry from that map.

  • The index of chart sentiment is built only from the price chart and is a direction and regime estimate, not a standalone trade signal.
  • Candlecode scores each bar from the full candlestick, and a four-line sentiment map turns those scores into high, low, bullish, and bearish states.
  • A regime-filtered entry keeps the hourly cross-stochastic rule but accepts, rejects, or reverse-biases that rule from the mapped state.
  • High and low bands are treated as unstable, so both sides may be taken with a directional preference, while definite bullish or bearish regimes restrict entry to that direction.
Entries in this reading3 entries

A regime estimate, not a trade signal

The index of chart sentiment is constructed entirely from the price chart. It is presented as a direction and regime estimate, not as a standalone trade signal.

Editorial reading: use that index only to classify the regime, then keep or drop an hourly stochastic entry. Do not treat the index itself as the trigger.

Candlecode as the short-horizon input

Candlestick structure is used as the short-horizon sentiment input because each bar can be coded for bullish or bearish content from the full candle rather than from the close alone.

Candlecode is the numeric encoding of that bar. It assigns a degree of bullish or bearish structure from the full candlestick, not from the close alone.

The four-line sentiment map

A four-line overlay on the index defines the operating states. Two outer parallel extremes bound index highs and lows, and two inner parallels pass through intermediate turning points.

High is the state above the upper inner line. Low is the state below the lower inner line. The map is bullish when the index enters the inner band from below, and bearish when it enters from above.

Very high index readings are treated as overbought and very low readings as oversold. Movement from lower to higher levels is treated as a bullish regime in which upside legs are expected to exceed corrections.

Average ICS pulse by sentiment regime on hourly sterling

Bullish and bearish regimes carry a real directional pulse, while the high and low extremes are almost two-sided. Treat the inner bands as a one-way gate and the extremes as two-way. These four averages are the exact pulse table for hourly British pound from October 1999 through June 2000.
Bullish and bearish regimes carry a real directional pulse, while the high and low extremes are almost two-sided. Treat the inner bands as a one-way gate and the extremes as two-way. These four averages are the exact pulse table for hourly British pound from October 1999 through June 2000.British pound · hourly · 1999-10-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2000-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

High and low ICS boundaries were taken unoptimized at +18 and -18. Pulse equals (upmove minus downmove) divided by (upmove plus downmove) over each run of constant sentiment.

Regime-filtered stochastic entries

Cross-stochastic is a rule-based hourly entry that fires when stochastic oscillators cross. Here it is the unfiltered baseline.

Regime-filtered entry is a two-stage procedure. First classify sentiment from the four-line sentiment map. Then open only those oscillator signals that match the regime, or require extra confirmation when the index is at an extreme.

In a high-index regime an hourly system may take both longs and shorts because sentiment is treated as unstable. In a definite bullish or bearish regime, entries are restricted to the direction of that regime.

When sentiment is high, both sides may be taken but longs are preferred and shorts need stronger confirmation. When sentiment is low, shorts are preferred and longs need stronger confirmation.

Where a slower trend overlay stands aside

The intended use of a slower trend overlay on an hourly reversal system is to stand aside when the two disagree. That overlay still waits for a mature trend and remains fragile when direction changes often.

Editorial note: the workflow in this article uses the four-line sentiment map as the stand-aside and direction gate, instead of waiting on that slower overlay.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
20 of 54 in the Candlestick patterns track
20041-3 pp.Next on Candlestick patternsConfirming index reversals with candlesticks, stochastics and averagesA candlestick bar is the net of buying, selling, and sentiment for a chosen period, and only about ten of the known signals dominate routine reversal work.
All readings on this track · 54 readings
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  2. 1991Constructing candlestick real bodies and multi-session patterns
  3. 1991Treat a candlestick reversal as incomplete until %D confirms it
  4. 1991Filtering candlestick signals with stochastic percent-D
  5. 1991Constructing compressed candlestick summaries
  6. 1993Intraday candlestick confirmation with oscillators
  7. 1993Candlestick hypotheses from a 1993 reading list
  8. 1994License candlestick signals with oscillators and weekly vetoes
  9. 1995Real-body support, resistance, and close-through breakouts
  10. 1997Weekly reversal as a three-part hypothesis
  11. 1998Turning fear levels into testable rules with a psychological matrix
  12. 2000Evaluating three-bar reversal reliability
  13. 2000Prior-day candles, open confirmation, and same-session stops
  14. 2000Intraday candlestick volume confirmation for daytrading
  15. 2001Count the key reversal up before coding a mechanical exit
  16. 2001Rising and falling three continuation candle construction
  17. 2002Treat a moving average as a contested fence
  18. 2003Candlestick signals need support and a risk-reward screen
  19. 2003Constructing one-day reversal tops and bottoms
  20. 2003Chart sentiment as a regime filter for hourly stochastic entries
  21. 2004Confirming index reversals with candlesticks, stochastics and averages
  22. 2004The harami inner close as a reversal barometer
  23. 2004Constructing a true-range volume power-shift filter
  24. 2005Weighing reversal clusters against moving-average support
  25. 2005Candlestick exits confirmed by overbought stochastics
  26. 2005Confirming piercing patterns with stochastics and moving averages
  27. 2006Candlestick cluster exits confirmed by overbought stochastics
  28. 2007Three black crows become a trade hypothesis only after regime, trend and nearby levels
  29. 2008Asymmetrical RSI lookbacks for divergence and candle confirmation
  30. 2008A permission checklist for the end of a trend
  31. 2010Mechanical entries still need confirmation gates
  32. 2010Crude oil as a case study in candlestick session reading
  33. 2010Gold weekly candles and the thousand resistance breakout
  34. 2010A three-layer gold chart drill from waves to candle confirmation
  35. 2011Why entry scans fail without trend filters
  36. 2011Price-zone oscillator trend-regime rules
  37. 2011A candlestick checklist before commodity entries
  38. 2013Step candle construction at price turning points
  39. 2013Two-bar step-candle construction
  40. 2014Small-range bars as a timed volume-climax hypothesis
  41. 2014Constructing volume-scaled candlestick charts
  42. 2015Weekly range midpoints as support and resistance
  43. 2015Constructing weekly body-midpoint pattern codes
  44. 2015Evaluating encoded candlestick sequence hypotheses
  45. 2015Constructing a breakout relative-strength index from two-day range candles
  46. 2016A three-gate classroom on hourly sterling
  47. 2016Fibonacci retracement as a pre-commitment stop map
  48. 2017Nine-zone filter for decade-level breakouts
  49. 2017Constructing pin-bar and inside-bar setups
  50. 2017Two-bar soldier and crow rules become a system only after filters and exits
  51. 2017Confirm a one-white-soldier or one-black-crow before entry
  52. 2018Session control from marubozu and engulfing geometry
  53. 2019Volume, acceleration, and candle filters on a completed double bottom
  54. 2019Sector-filtered candlestick scans and predrawn stops
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