Skip to main content
Track Stochastic oscillator
3 / 42
Search the archiveLibrary
Library

1990issue C011-3

Monthly stochastics as a multi-year bond regime filter

On monthly bond-futures bars, the stochastic oscillator was used to read trend direction over spans of one to three years and to mark price areas where a reversal might form. Editorial view: the same %K and %D geometry then describes whether a multi-year phase is still intact, not whether a short-horizon entry is due.

  • Monthly sampling applied the stochastic oscillator to bond-futures bars so that one-to-three-year trend phases became the relevant horizon.
  • A rising-price reading was %K crossing to the plus side of %D; a falling-price reading existed while %K remained below %D, with plus 80 overbought and plus 20 oversold as the extremes.
  • Observed long-trend changes more often coincided with those extremes than with mid-range readings, and reversal marks often arrived after price had already turned.
  • The oscillator was treated as a directional overlay and a warning of possible trend change, not as a complete trading system.
Entries in this reading1 entry
Current trackStochastic oscillator170 readings

Monthly sampling and long bond phases

The stochastic oscillator locates each interval's close relative to that interval's high and low. On monthly bond-futures bars, it was used to read trend direction over spans of one to three years and to mark price areas where a reversal might form.

Editorial interpretation: stretching the sampling interval to monthly bars does not create a different oscillator. The same %K and %D geometry is asked whether a multi-year phase is still intact, rather than whether a short-horizon entry is due.

Direction and extreme readings

A rising-price reading is defined as %K crossing to the plus side of %D. A falling-price reading exists while %K remains below %D.

Extreme classifications used plus 80 as overbought and plus 20 as oversold. Observed changes in the long trend more often coincided with those overbought or oversold extremes than with mid-range oscillator readings.

Reversal marks arrived after the turn

After price had already turned, the oscillator often continued to reflect the prior direction, so its reversal marks arrived after the turn.

The oscillator was treated as a directional overlay and a warning of possible trend change, not as a complete trading system.

Overlapping large-scale economic forces were presented as the reason bond-futures prices form very long trends rather than only short swings.

Editorial interpretation: regime dependence here is a clocking choice. Monthly sampling maps those long phases. The oscillator is not recast as a complete market model.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
3 of 42 in the Stochastic oscillator track
19901-9 pp.Next on Stochastic oscillatorWalk-forward screen for yen indicator rulesA walk-forward-lock chooses parameters on one year of nearby yen futures, applies only those settings to the next unused quarter, then rolls both windows forward.
All readings on this track · 42 readings
  1. 1987Stochastic fast and slow construction as a rebuildable stack
  2. 1989Building the stochastic oscillator from close location
  3. 1990Monthly stochastics as a multi-year bond regime filter
  4. 1990Walk-forward screen for yen indicator rules
  5. 1990Slow stochastic construction for index pullback entries
  6. 1991Random Walk Index construction with an adaptive lookback
  7. 1991Building a two-stage stochastic oscillator from close location
  8. 1992Constructing fast and slow stochastic oscillator lines
  9. 1992Constructing nested stochastic lookbacks
  10. 1994Construct the four-state price-volume rank before filtering it
  11. 1996Crowded stochastics, false breakouts, and hidden stops
  12. 1997Fade and follow entries from stochastic extremes
  13. 1998Oversold confirmation as a staged rule-based-entry case
  14. 1999Constructing regular and slow stochastic oscillators
  15. 2001Construct a variable-interval simple moving average from stacked extremes
  16. 2001Threshold RSI and stochastic setups with next-bar stops
  17. 2001Two tests of a rate-adjusted earnings-yield gap
  18. 2002Constructing a two-line stochastic from a range-normalized close
  19. 2002Inspect mechanical stochastic daytrade rules on one bar
  20. 2003Constructing an adaptive stochastic RSI
  21. 2003Four parameters that construct a stochastic oscillator
  22. 2004Volume breakout as signal, pullback as entry
  23. 2004A first currency-market checklist with two averages and a slow stochastic
  24. 2005Shared-scale cycle indexes with companion oscillators
  25. 2005Current-bar versus prior-bar range construction for the stochastic oscillator
  26. 2005Two-session moving-average pullback short
  27. 2006Market condition as a permission layer for moving averages and oscillators
  28. 2008Lock the stop at support before sizing a stochastic entry
  29. 2010Construct a center-line volume oscillator and read it with a stochastic oscillator
  30. 2010Sharpened RSI turns with rainbow averages and a slow stochastic
  31. 2011Build a Spearman rank oscillator from ordered closes
  32. 2012Gold as a regime-dependent hedge in the euro-area crisis
  33. 2012Pairing moving averages with variable-length stochastics
  34. 2014Two-leg stochastic stress oscillator as a rebuild drill
  35. 2014Ingress dates as price bases for relative strength, stochastics, and moving averages
  36. 2017Constructing a dual EMA stochastic from range normalization
  37. 2018Constructing a two-stage stochastic RSI for comparable price-oscillator divergences
  38. 2018Combining a weekly stochastic, a long moving average, and two-day resistance
  39. 2018Weekly and daily stochastic readings with a long moving average and support
  40. 2018A confirming workflow for rotating from discretionary to staples
  41. 2019Stochastic scan thresholds, averages, and formula syntax
  42. 2020Constructing Slow %K as a two-stage helper
By fieldIndicators and filters682 readingsBy year199092 readings
All 170 readings tagged Stochastic oscillator
Also on Stochastic oscillator5 readings
1982Three gates on a 1982 pork-belly short1984Constructing the slow stochastic from a five-session range1985Daily ARIMA range as a filter for intraday stochastic divergence1986Auditing stochastic crossovers with moving-average baselines1987Stochastic fast and slow construction as a rebuildable stack