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1990issue C071-4

Slow stochastic construction for index pullback entries

The raw stochastic value places the latest close in a 20-session high-low range and is scaled from 0 to 100. Slow percent K and slow percent D smooth that reading, a strength precondition gates the long, and the position ends on a crossover exit or a 60-point close-based stop.

  • The raw stochastic value places the latest close inside a 20-session high-low range and is scaled from 0 to 100; slow percent K and slow percent D then apply the same two-plus-one blend.
  • No long is considered until slow 20-day percent D has first reached 84, so a later dip is treated as a reaction to a strong advance.
  • A long is taken when percent D falls below 70 and percent K is at least 4 points below percent D, then closed by a crossover exit or a 60-point close-based stop.
  • Those shared thresholds settle, in one procedure, what counts as a strong advance, when the following retreat may be bought, and when the position must end.
Entries in this reading3 entries

How the oscillator is built

The oscillator’s raw reading places the latest close inside the 20-session high-low range and is scaled from 0 to 100. That raw stochastic value is the 0-to-100 placement of the latest close between the lowest low and highest high of a fixed 20-session lookback.

Slow percent K blends twice the prior percent K with the new raw reading and divides by three. Slow percent D applies the same two-plus-one blend to percent K and acts as the system trigger line.

The strength precondition and the long

No long is considered until the slow 20-day percent D has first reached 84. That strength precondition treats a later dip as a reaction to a strong advance, not an ordinary pullback.

A rule-based pullback entry is taken the next time percent D falls below 70 while percent K is at least 4 points below percent D. The long is allowed only after the precondition has been met.

How the long is closed

The long is closed when percent K is at least 4 points above percent D and percent D is 30 or higher, or when a 60-point close-based stop is reached.

The crossover exit uses those oscillator conditions. The close-based stop is a 60-point index stop judged on the close, used to bound the loss if the oscillator exit has not yet fired.

What the shared thresholds settle

Those shared thresholds are written to settle, in one procedure, what counts as a strong advance, when the following retreat may be bought, and when the position must end.

Cases from the historical sample

In the historical sample the typical hold lasted a little more than eight trading sessions.

Illustrated cases include a monthly map of the signals, a September 1984 reaction entry, an April 1986 reaction that followed the retreat, and a trade that entered on the rules but then failed as the market sagged.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
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19911-1 pp.Next on Stochastic oscillatorRandom Walk Index construction with an adaptive lookbackThe Random Walk Index is an observed high or low excursion divided by the distance a random walk would be expected to cover over the same number of days.
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