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2020issue C0924-29

Centerline crossovers that compare index momentums

A compare-momentum overlay places same-parameter oscillators on one pane so centerline, signal-line, and relative-strength crossings can be read together. The archive then waits for a price-structure confirmation before treating a joint centerline event as a bull, a bear, or a failed dip.

  • Place two or more same-parameter price-momentum oscillators on one pane so centerline, signal-line, and relative-strength crossings can be read together.
  • Joint bearish centerline crossings of the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Dow oscillators lined up with the starts of the 2000-2003 and 2008-2009 bear markets, but later joint dips reversed without a new bear market.
  • A later resistance breakout, not the centerline print alone, was used to treat a joint bullish recross as a candidate new advance or the end of a correction.
  • A long weekly average and a measured pullback of the prior rally were used to judge whether a centerline dip was only a failed correction.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Fibonacci retracement97 readingsCurrent trackMomentum strategy103 readingsMoving average449 readings

Read several oscillators on one pane

A compare-momentum overlay places two or more same-parameter price-momentum oscillators on one pane so centerline, signal-line, and relative-strength crossings can be read together.

In this archive workflow, a momentum strategy is a rule set that reads oscillator location, index-to-index crossovers, and confirmation events as one testable procedure for entering, exiting, or standing aside.

Joint centerline breaks and later recoveries

On the 1995-2009 charts, joint bearish centerline crossings of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 oscillators in November 2000 and again in January-February 2008 lined up with the starts of the 2000-2003 and 2008-2009 bear markets.

Nasdaq-100 momentum crossing above S&P 500 momentum in January 2003 and January 2009 marked the late stages of those same two bear markets, while later bull-market dips below the centerline in 2016 and 2018-2019 recovered without a new bear market.

S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average oscillators showed the same November 2000 and January 2008 bearish centerline pattern, then recovered above the centerline in May 2003 and May 2009. Later joint dips in 2011, 2015-2016, and 2018-2019 also reversed without a new bear market.

A less stable small-cap pairing

Pairing S&P 500 and Russell 2000 oscillators is less stable. The Russell 2000 lagged in the 1995-2000 advance, led in 2003-2007, and during the 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 declines either led or matched the S&P 500.

Centerline turns still needed a breakout

In the 1990 decline, all three large-index oscillators fell below the centerline in July-August, recrossed it in November, and a resistance breakout in January 1991 confirmed the new uptrend.

The 1994 episode is an exception: the Dow oscillator never went below the centerline, the S&P 500 oscillator did in April, and Nasdaq-100 outperformance plus a February 1995 resistance breakout still marked the turn.

Joint bullish centerline crossings of the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq-100 oscillators, when followed by a resistance breakout, were presented as a candidate start of a bull market or end of a correction, with the 1994 case called out as an exception.

Failed dips checked against price structure

In 2015-2016 the Dow and S&P 500 oscillators went below the centerline first, produced a brief false recross, and only after the S&P 500 tagged its 200-week average and all three oscillators were back above the centerline in April 2016 did a July resistance breakout confirm the resumed advance.

The late-2018 dip took all three oscillators below the centerline while the S&P 500 retraced 50% of the February 2016-October 2018 rally and briefly crossed its 200-week average. The oscillators recrossed the centerline in February-March 2019, and the prior highs were exceeded in July 2019.

Editorial reading: the 200-week average is the smoothed baseline used to check whether a momentum rebound is meeting or failing a defined price path, and the 50% pullback is the chart-scale check on how deep that centerline dip ran before momentum recovered.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
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All readings on this track · 51 readings
  1. 1984Half-cycle differencing for momentum signals
  2. 1987Relative strength evaluation under competing optimization criteria
  3. 1988Weekly MACD as a two-clock momentum confirmation stack
  4. 1989Equal-weight zero-cross from smoothed spreads
  5. 1989Testing relative-strength-index reversal rules against trend continuation
  6. 1989Smoothed three-day futures filter for index option bounces
  7. 1989Cycle-length windows for momentum, Relative Strength Index, and stochastic construction
  8. 1991Filtered rally magnitude as a bull-regime breakout
  9. 1992Constructing true strength from double-smoothed momentum
  10. 1992Constructing a double-smoothed true strength index
  11. 1993When momentum structure and breadth break together
  12. 1993Constructing double-smoothed range and momentum oscillators
  13. 1993Constructing a two-parameter relative momentum index
  14. 1993Building a bounded momentum oscillator with RSI smoothing
  15. 1993Two-speed oscillators with divergence and trendline gates
  16. 1993Constructing a relative momentum index from the relative strength index
  17. 1994Constructing daily advance-decline breadth tools
  18. 1994Building a composite regime score from monetary climate and weekly trend
  19. 1994Averaging Relative Strength Index and the stochastic oscillator into one reversal oscillator
  20. 1995Dividend-yield regression as a hold versus momentum gate
  21. 1996Jump and hold filters for long-term Treasury yield direction
  22. 1997Constructing extendedness from a 10 percent swing filter
  23. 1997A range-expansion oscillator that can refuse its own stretch
  24. 1997RSI trend permission and Fibonacci pullback rules
  25. 1998Nested midpoint construction for a range-normalized oscillator
  26. 1999Evaluating Relative Strength Index momentum with zero-line and threshold rules
  27. 1999Treat RSI and momentum as three mechanical procedures
  28. 2000Thrust strength figure from moving-average swings
  29. 2001Constructing a non-range-bound balance of market power score
  30. 2004Cleaned breadth oscillator and new-high divergence: a swing-market case file
  31. 2004Evaluating advance-issues-momentum on a fixed-symbol-basket
  32. 2004Constructing a trend filter from two adjacent high-low windows
  33. 2006A dollar-versus-commodity extreme as a regime case
  34. 2008Zero-centered stochastic bands and bracket stops
  35. 2012Evaluating engulfing momentum across hold windows
  36. 2012Staged stops as one mechanical entry and exit procedure
  37. 2012Stacking a relative-strength-index forecast, a trend filter, and long-only momentum
  38. 2013Constructing fair-value filters from averages and momentum
  39. 2014Constructing a multi-window slope divergence entry
  40. 2015Bandedge trend filter construction with inverse crossover rules
  41. 2017Opposite rules for index price and volatility momentum
  42. 2018A three-state overlay that colors a trend only after the line clears the bar
  43. 2018Half-cycle relative-strength index with a Fisher map for cyclic reversals
  44. 2018Emotion as a rule input when momentum breaks
  45. 2018Two-bar body expansion as a momentum breakout construction
  46. 2019Pair a two-day high breakout with a volume-weighted exit on the same chart
  47. 2020Building reflex and trendflex cross and extreme entry rules
  48. 2020Construct a dual-series price momentum oscillator overlay
  49. 2020A multi-timeframe stochastic as a panel of weekly voters
  50. 2020Centerline crossovers that compare index momentums
  51. 2020Multi-timeframe stochastic voting as one mechanical rule
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