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Research method

Fundamental overlay

Fundamental overlay is a canonical archive-taxonomy method; this registry entry defines its inputs, output and use boundary.

Output
Market-regime classification
Input
Cross-market prices, volatility, carry and portfolio weights
Horizon
Weeks to months
Best use
Put a single trade into a diversified or regime-aware context.

Registry evidence level: backtested. This is a navigation record, not a performance claim.

  • Input: Cross-market prices, volatility, carry and portfolio weights.
  • Output: market-regime.
  • Use boundary: Put a single trade into a diversified or regime-aware context.
The graph4

How the method is built, and where it has been read

Depends on

Read in the archive24 of 44 readings

1985Activist-stake volume rules and a convertible overlayIntermarket and spreads1988Classifying primary futures for regime-aware tradesIntermarket and spreads1988A two-rule classroom book of cheapness and new highsPortfolio construction1991Growth earnings and price-to-earnings as a market-regime overlaySeasonality and regimes1991Earnings-price reliability as a first gate for growth-sleeve constructionPortfolio construction1991Evaluating successive policy hikes as equity regime warningsSeasonality and regimes1991Growth-adjusted earnings years as construction filtersPortfolio construction1992Constructing an index nominal from smoothed earnings and effective ratesTime series and forecasting1992Real bond yields as a deficit-share regimeIntermarket and spreads1994Relative valuation as regime context for fund allocationPortfolio construction1995A flattening trendline as a critique of the fundamental overlayTrend and channels1998An earnings-to-price mapping is unfinished until add, reduce, and stand-aside are rulesSystem design1999Regime-aware stock exposure when rates and market condition agreeSeasonality and regimes2000Build a four-market commodity overlay for inflation regime contextIntermarket and spreads2001Earnback period ranking for growth-adjusted screensPortfolio construction2001Place a small-cap growth idea inside a regime mapSeasonality and regimes2002Short-rate velocity regimes before tighteningSeasonality and regimes2003A value overlay and strangle hedge during a growth-led regimeDecision process2003A pre-trade checklist that requires rule and fundamental agreementDecision process2003Housing leverage after an equity crashIntermarket and spreads2004Evaluating P/E overlays with matched crossoversIndicators and filters2004Constructing a stock-versus-bond regime from earnings yieldsIntermarket and spreads2004TRIX momentum and fundamental overlays for medium-term stock selectionIndicators and filters2005Regime shifts reorder US data impactSeasonality and regimes
This registry entry describes a research method. It is not investment advice and does not make a performance claim.