Skip to main content
Track Intermarket analysis
16 / 33
Search the archiveLibrary
Library

2004issue C021-2

Size-and-style sleeves as a weekly regime map

Rank small versus large and growth versus value as four size-and-style-sleeve groups. Use a weekly-average-cross as the trend baseline, then read a breakout-confirmation so one equity idea sits inside that sleeve-ranking.

  • Cross company size with a price-to-book-sort to form four size-and-style-sleeve groups, then use sleeve-ranking instead of reading any sleeve alone.
  • Treat a 20-week average crossing a 50-week average as the weekly-average-cross that is the quantitative trend baseline.
  • Treat a finished multipart-base or a cleared prior high as the breakout-confirmation that places one equity idea on the weekly map.
  • In the archive case, small-cap value led after the March 2003 lows, large-cap value outpaced large-cap growth but lagged small-cap value, and small-cap growth challenged the spring 2002 highs only after its weekly-average-cross.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackIntermarket analysis136 readingsBreakout confirmation172 readingsMoving average449 readings

Four sleeves on one weekly map

A weekly regime dashboard can be built from four size-and-style-sleeve groups: small-cap growth, large-cap growth, small-cap value, and large-cap value. Sleeve-ranking compares which group is leading or lagging during the same market phase.

Editorial reading: the map puts a single equity idea into a diversified, regime-aware context. It is not a stand-alone forecast of the broad market.

How a price-to-book-sort builds the sleeves

Growth sleeves are built from names with higher price-to-book ratios and higher expected growth, while value sleeves are built from names with lower readings on both measures. That construction rule is a price-to-book-sort.

The two size groups do not share identical sector mixes, so a small-cap sleeve and a large-cap sleeve are not interchangeable even when both are labelled growth or value.

The weekly-average-cross as the baseline

Each sleeve is also read against its own weekly moving averages. A weekly-average-cross is a change in order between a shorter weekly average and a longer weekly average.

In this archive case the shorter average is the 20-week average and the longer average is the 50-week average. Editorial reading: that cross is the quantitative baseline against which later breakout-confirmation is judged.

Small-cap growth after a multipart-base

Small-cap growth left a three-low base in spring 2003. Editorial reading: that three-low area is a multipart-base, a prolonged low built from several distinct troughs before an advance tries to leave the range.

Its 20-week average crossed above its 50-week average in late spring or early summer of that year. After a brief September 2003 pullback, small-cap growth resumed its advance and, by the approach of November 2003, was challenging the spring 2002 highs.

Editorial reading: challenging those prior highs is the breakout-confirmation for that sleeve.

Large-cap growth as the slower sleeve

Large-cap growth stayed below its 20-week average through the late-2001 rebound, then rose from a three-stage 2002 to 2003 base more slowly than the small-cap growth sleeve.

Editorial reading: the three-stage low is another multipart-base, and the slower rise belongs to the sleeve-ranking rather than to a separate signal.

Small-cap value before and after the relapse

Small-cap value cleared both its 20-week and 50-week averages by November 2001, then relapsed into a downtrend from spring 2002 until the spring 2003 rebound.

Sleeve-ranking from the 2003 lows

From the March 2003 lows, small-cap value led large-cap value, large-cap growth, and small-cap growth, and by November 2003 it had cleared the spring 2002 highs.

Large-cap value and the summer-consolidation

From the spring 2003 lows, large-cap value outpaced large-cap growth but lagged small-cap value, then left a summer-long consolidation in late October and November 2003 with the early-2002 highs as the next reference.

Editorial reading: that pause is a summer-consolidation, a multi-month sideways range that later either fails or resolves with a fresh range expansion. The archive leaves the early-2002 highs as the next reference after that pause.

Placing one equity idea on the map

Editorial reading: a single equity idea is placed on this map only after the sleeve-ranking is known. The weekly-average-cross is the baseline for the sleeve, and the breakout-confirmation is the chart condition that locates the name inside a leading or lagging group.

The archive describes that historical workflow. It does not grade current names or state a present-day regime.

IWN weekly versus the 20-week and 50-week averages

Small-cap value, shown as the IWN weekly iShare, led the four size-and-style sleeves off the March 2003 lows and had already cleared the spring 2002 peak by November. The 20-week average crossed back above the 50-week average in late spring 2003 after the same pair had marked the late-2001 rally and the 2002 relapse. Weekly closes and both averages were read from the published weekly plot; the last labeled print is 153.26 with the 20-week at 140.16 and the 50-week at 124.41.
Small-cap value, shown as the IWN weekly iShare, led the four size-and-style sleeves off the March 2003 lows and had already cleared the spring 2002 peak by November. The 20-week average crossed back above the 50-week average in late spring 2003 after the same pair had marked the late-2001 rally and the 2002 relapse. Weekly closes and both averages were read from the published weekly plot; the last labeled print is 153.26 with the 20-week at 140.16 and the 50-week at 124.41.IWN · Weekly · 2001-06-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2003-11-30T00:00:00.000Z

Digitized from the weekly candlestick plot. Only the final close and the two average readouts are printed on the source; earlier points are visual readings to the nearest dollar and are not official prints.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
16 of 33 in the Intermarket analysis track
20041-2 pp.Next on Intermarket analysisCountry closed-end funds shared one average checklist and four regimesTKF, MXF, TRF, and IFN were listed closed-end country funds for Turkey, Mexico, Russia and Eastern Europe, and India, so each traded price was a compact proxy for that market’s listed-equity regime.
All readings on this track · 33 readings
  1. 1990Policy-auction spread as a weekly equity regime filter
  2. 1992Electric utilities as bond-regime context
  3. 1992Reading the dollar as a rates-regime check
  4. 1992Evaluating weekly intermarket context for equity regimes
  5. 1993Specifying the stock-bond yield gap as a hold-or-abstain regime
  6. 1996Constructing dual-gate bond-fund entries from gold-silver jumps
  7. 1996Name the regime before the sector breakout
  8. 2002Falling prices flip stock-bond confirmation
  9. 2003Four sleeves on one regime board: gold miners, REITs, bills, and equities
  10. 2003Four currency regimes for the yen, loonie, pound and Australian dollar
  11. 2003Read gold through the dollar regime, the hedge spread, and a stop
  12. 2003When deflation flips the stock-bond map
  13. 2003Commodity subgroup regime boards and dual averages
  14. 2003Reading a liquidity regime when gold, bonds, and stocks rise together
  15. 2003A shared weekly checklist for four country funds
  16. 2004Size-and-style sleeves as a weekly regime map
  17. 2004Country closed-end funds shared one average checklist and four regimes
  18. 2004A 2004 four-pair snapshot of a dollar-bloc FX regime
  19. 2005Country closed-end funds as a weekly regime comparison
  20. 2005Weekly regime maps for production-weighted commodity subgroups
  21. 2005Four technology sleeves on one weekly regime map
  22. 2006The Australian dollar as a commodity regime and timing filter
  23. 2008Dual-listing moving averages as a crowd-regime test
  24. 2008Cross-market regime context for a single trade
  25. 2010Dollar index, cross rates, and commodity context for forex targets
  26. 2010Gold and silver forex session candles as metals-regime context
  27. 2012Yield curve regime and equity timing
  28. 2013Yield curve shapes as stock market regime context
  29. 2013Yield spreads as country-specific equity regime context
  30. 2016Credit spreads as an equity cash regime filter
  31. 2016The summer lull is a context error
  32. 2019Financial sector spreads as regime tells around a global stablecoin
  33. 2019The negative-yield regime as an equity intermarket filter
By fieldIntermarket and spreads148 readingsBy year2004107 readings
All 136 readings tagged Intermarket analysis
Also on Intermarket analysis5 readings
2003A shared weekly checklist for four country funds2004A 2004 four-pair snapshot of a dollar-bloc FX regime2004Country closed-end funds shared one average checklist and four regimes2005Four technology sleeves on one weekly regime map1992Bond turning points as a regime check on equity double tops and breakouts