Weekly regime maps for production-weighted commodity subgroups

A production-weighted book

A production-weighted index is a commodity benchmark whose component weights follow recent multi-year average output rather than equal or liquidity weights. In the historical workflow, that benchmark was built from average output over the most recent five years of available data. Its subgroups then served as parallel price measures for the commodities inside each group.

The same weekly overlay

Weekly subgroup charts in the case carried both 20-period and 50-period moving averages as a shared quantitative overlay. Where a 200-week simple moving average was also shown, it completed the weekly moving-average stack used as a common baseline across groups.

Precious metals and sideways consolidation

The precious-metals subgroup, limited to gold and silver, strengthened after a 2004 pullback from early-spring highs and printed higher highs by that fall. It then moved into a sideways consolidation. That later range was unlike the post-correction rebound after the 2003 decline.

Agriculture after the 2004 decline

The agriculture subgroup covers grains and several softs: wheat, red wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, sugar, coffee, cocoa, and orange juice. After falling from summer 2004 into a fall 2004 low, the subgroup recovered more than one-third of that decline, with its 20-, 50-, and 200-week simple moving averages sitting below the index.

Energies and the 50-week average

The energies subgroup covers crude oil, Brent crude, unleaded gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas. The fall 2004 and spring 2005 corrections held at the 50-week simple moving average. Later prices moved above the March and April 2005 highs.

Livestock in a support and resistance test

The livestock subgroup covers live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs. It went from an early-2004 advance into a horizontal range from summer 2004 into late spring 2005, then in May 2005 traded below both its 20-week and 50-week moving averages. After that break, livestock prices sat between the 20- and 50-week averages overhead and the 200-week average underneath, framing a support and resistance test of whether the decline would stabilize or continue.

One contract inside the complex

Editorial reading: a weekly regime map scores each production-weighted subgroup against the same moving-average stack and the nearest support or range boundary. Precious metals in sideways consolidation, agriculture above its full stack, energies holding then clearing the 50-week average, and livestock testing support after a range break are different settings for contracts that live in those groups. The single idea is then read in intermarket context, not from its own chart alone.