Four technology sleeves on one weekly regime map

Four technology sleeves on one weekly map

A 2005 intermarket case placed four technology-adjacent sleeves in one weekly map: an internet exchange-traded trust, a software index of 45 names, a semiconductor index of 19 names, and a telecommunications exchange-traded trust.

Both sector trusts were described as exchange-traded products that confer direct ownership of the underlying stocks, unlike conventional exchange-traded funds. Each basket is treated as an intermarket-sleeve so several related prices can be compared in the same weekly regime map.

Internet sleeve: a weekly-average-cross without a taken-out low

In the internet sleeve, a 20-week moving average crossed above a 50-week moving average in spring 2003. A later three-year window showed price off a late-2004 high after a sharp summer-2004 correction, with no major weekly low taken out.

Editorial reading: the spring-2003 weekly-average-cross, and the later absence of a major taken-out-weekly-low, kept this sleeve in a leadership reading on the map even after the summer-2004 correction.

Software sleeve: leadership, then taken-out weekly lows

In the software index, a 20-week exponential moving average crossed above a 50-week exponential moving average in summer 2003. The first half of 2004 then took out weekly lows from early 2004 and late 2003 as price slipped below both averages.

After a second-half-2004 rebound and a late-2004 high, the software index again fell below both weekly averages in an early-2005 correction, then by late summer 2005 was closing consistently above the 20-week and 50-week exponential moving averages.

Editorial reading: the first-half-2004 taken-out-weekly-low prints marked regime failure after the summer-2003 weekly-average-cross. The late-summer-2005 closes back above both exponential moving averages were a later repair of the weekly averages, not a sign that the 2003 regime had remained intact.

Semiconductor sleeve: decline, range, then an upside-breakout

The semiconductor index also saw its 20-week exponential moving average move above its 50-week exponential moving average in summer 2003, peaked late in 2003, and then declined through the first three quarters of 2004 while taking out numerous weekly lows.

After that semiconductor decline stalled in summer 2004, the index spent several months in a trading range and then appeared to break out to the upside in summer 2005.

Editorial reading: the 2004 sequence of taken-out-weekly-low prints ended the prior advance. The summer-2005 upside-breakout is a chart condition to test rather than a completed outcome.

Telecommunications sleeve: range-compression under an unbreached ceiling

The telecommunications trust stayed compressed after late-2002 lows: a 10-point range later tightened to four points by summer 2004 and to two points in 2005, with a ceiling at 30 still unbreached.

Editorial reading: that path is range-compression ending at an unbreached ceiling, not an upside-breakout. Set beside the semiconductor sleeve, the same complex held both a ceiling at 30 and a summer-2005 upside-breakout.

Editorial reading: one complex, four regimes

Editorial reading: a weekly-average-cross in 2003 did not keep the four intermarket-sleeve prices on one path. The internet sleeve held structure through 2004. Software and semiconductors printed taken-out-weekly-low failures. Semiconductors later tested an upside-breakout, while telecommunications stayed in range-compression. The case is a regime map for related markets, not a single-market signal.