Skip to main content
Track Intermarket analysis
18 / 33
Search the archiveLibrary
Library

2004issue C071-2

A 2004 four-pair snapshot of a dollar-bloc FX regime

A 2004 intermarket case study grouped the euro, Australian dollar, and British pound as 2002 breakouts that later corrected toward a shared fifty-week exponential moving average, while USD/JPY tested that same weekly line as resistance.

  • The euro, Australian dollar, and British pound were grouped as 2002 breakouts that corrected toward fifty-week exponential moving-average support in the first quarter of 2004.
  • The euro 2002 breakout was read as a multi-year advance that followed that weekly average, with spring-2004 top fears after a pullback and named support near 1.1380 and 1.0765.
  • USD/JPY was described as topping in spring 2002, falling through 2002 and 2003, then testing the same fifty-week exponential moving average as resistance while attempting an intermediate-term bottom in spring 2004.
  • The Australian dollar was framed as a commodity currency and a US-dollar hedge; the yen was framed as a finance currency tied to Japanese equities, rates, and real estate.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackIntermarket analysis136 readingsBreakout confirmation172 readingsMoving average449 readings

Three majors that broke out together

A 2004 intermarket case study grouped the euro, the Australian dollar, and the British pound as having broken out in 2002 and then corrected toward fifty-week exponential moving-average support in the first quarter of 2004.

The euro 2002 breakout was read as a multi-year advance whose slope followed a fifty-week exponential moving average, with spring-2004 top fears appearing after a pullback to that average. The euro review named further support near 1.1380 and, lower, near 1.0765 if then-current levels failed.

Euro weekly rate versus its 50-week EMA

From the spring 2002 breakout the euro stays in a bull market above its 50-week exponential average, then sags back toward that line near 1.20 after the early-2004 spike toward 1.29. Weekly closes and the average are read off the eSignal EUR weekly raster; the final 1.1984 spot and 1.18228 average are the last-bar labels printed on that chart.
From the spring 2002 breakout the euro stays in a bull market above its 50-week exponential average, then sags back toward that line near 1.20 after the early-2004 spike toward 1.29. Weekly closes and the average are read off the eSignal EUR weekly raster; the final 1.1984 spot and 1.18228 average are the last-bar labels printed on that chart.EUR/USD · weekly · 2000-10-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2004-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Monthly samples from weekly candles; raster tolerance is about 0.005. Printed last-bar labels kept as shown. The copy’s lower supports at 1.1380 and 1.0765 are not plotted.

Commodity-currency, sterling, and hedge context

The Australian dollar was framed as a commodity currency linked to resource exports and Asian demand, and as a hedge against US-dollar exposure after an early-summer 2002 breakout and a sharp first-quarter 2004 correction.

The British pound 2002 breakout was placed with the euro and the Australian dollar. After a mid-2003 consolidation and a late-2003 resumption, it also retreated toward its fifty-week exponential moving average in early 2004.

USD/JPY as resistance on the same weekly line

USD/JPY was described as topping in spring 2002, declining through 2002 and 2003, then testing the fifty-week exponential moving average as resistance on at least two occasions in spring 2004 while attempting an intermediate-term bottom.

The yen was treated as a finance currency driven more by Japanese equities, rates, and real estate than by commodity output, in contrast with commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar.

Reserve weighting next to the euro chart

Reserve-allocation commentary in the review argued that even a 10% rise in euro weighting implied large buying given the scale of global currency reserves.

Editorial note: that remark places the euro breakout inside a reserve-flow reading of the same dollar-bloc regime, so the weekly chart is set beside portfolio weights rather than treated as a standalone pattern.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
18 of 33 in the Intermarket analysis track
20051-2 pp.Next on Intermarket analysisCountry closed-end funds as a weekly regime comparisonFour NYSE-listed country closed-end funds covering Brazil, Israel, Chile, and Ireland were placed side by side as one intermarket set.
All readings on this track · 33 readings
  1. 1990Policy-auction spread as a weekly equity regime filter
  2. 1992Electric utilities as bond-regime context
  3. 1992Reading the dollar as a rates-regime check
  4. 1992Evaluating weekly intermarket context for equity regimes
  5. 1993Specifying the stock-bond yield gap as a hold-or-abstain regime
  6. 1996Constructing dual-gate bond-fund entries from gold-silver jumps
  7. 1996Name the regime before the sector breakout
  8. 2002Falling prices flip stock-bond confirmation
  9. 2003Four sleeves on one regime board: gold miners, REITs, bills, and equities
  10. 2003Four currency regimes for the yen, loonie, pound and Australian dollar
  11. 2003Read gold through the dollar regime, the hedge spread, and a stop
  12. 2003When deflation flips the stock-bond map
  13. 2003Commodity subgroup regime boards and dual averages
  14. 2003Reading a liquidity regime when gold, bonds, and stocks rise together
  15. 2003A shared weekly checklist for four country funds
  16. 2004Size-and-style sleeves as a weekly regime map
  17. 2004Country closed-end funds shared one average checklist and four regimes
  18. 2004A 2004 four-pair snapshot of a dollar-bloc FX regime
  19. 2005Country closed-end funds as a weekly regime comparison
  20. 2005Weekly regime maps for production-weighted commodity subgroups
  21. 2005Four technology sleeves on one weekly regime map
  22. 2006The Australian dollar as a commodity regime and timing filter
  23. 2008Dual-listing moving averages as a crowd-regime test
  24. 2008Cross-market regime context for a single trade
  25. 2010Dollar index, cross rates, and commodity context for forex targets
  26. 2010Gold and silver forex session candles as metals-regime context
  27. 2012Yield curve regime and equity timing
  28. 2013Yield curve shapes as stock market regime context
  29. 2013Yield spreads as country-specific equity regime context
  30. 2016Credit spreads as an equity cash regime filter
  31. 2016The summer lull is a context error
  32. 2019Financial sector spreads as regime tells around a global stablecoin
  33. 2019The negative-yield regime as an equity intermarket filter
By fieldIntermarket and spreads148 readingsBy year2004107 readings
All 136 readings tagged Intermarket analysis
Also on Intermarket analysis5 readings
2003A shared weekly checklist for four country funds2004Country closed-end funds shared one average checklist and four regimes2004Size-and-style sleeves as a weekly regime map2005Four technology sleeves on one weekly regime map1992Bond turning points as a regime check on equity double tops and breakouts