2018issue C128
The averaging kernel and the lagged trend gate are separate specifications
A published stiffness-style entry required a stiffness reading with lookbacks of 100 and 60 to cross above 90, and it compared a 100-period exponential average of a broad market proxy with the same average two sampling intervals earlier. Editorial reading: the averaging kernel that defines the local trend, and the lookback lag that turns that market average into a trend gate, are two specifications, not one branded indicator.
- One published buy rule required a stiffness reading computed with lookbacks of 100 and 60 to cross above 90.
- A second published buy rule compared a 100-period exponential average of a broad market proxy with the same average two sampling intervals earlier.
- Correspondence identified that the second buy condition as first printed omitted the two-interval lookback lag on the exponential average.
- A robustness check replaced the simple moving average inside the indicator with volume-weighted, sine-weighted, triangular-weighted, and recursively weighted averages.
Two published buy rules
A published stiffness-style buy setup stated two conditions rather than one. One published buy rule required a stiffness reading computed with lookbacks of 100 and 60 to cross above 90. That stiffness filter is a lookback-based trend-quality measure.
A second published buy rule compared a 100-period exponential average of a broad market proxy with the same average two sampling intervals earlier.
The omitted lookback lag
Correspondence identified that the second buy condition as first printed omitted the two-interval lag on the exponential average. A lookback lag is a fixed shift of a series by a stated number of sampling intervals so a comparison is not contemporaneous with itself.
The intended second condition is therefore a comparison of the 100-period exponential average with the same series two sampling intervals earlier, not a comparison of that average with itself at the same time.
Substituting the averaging kernel
A robustness check replaced the simple moving average inside the indicator with volume-weighted, sine-weighted, triangular-weighted, and recursively weighted averages. Those substitutions change the averaging kernel, the weighting scheme inside the moving average.
The volume-weighted moving average was formed from typical price, the arithmetic mean of a bar's high, low, and close, rather than from the close alone. In that kernel, each price observation is scaled by that period's volume before dividing by total volume.
One stated variant subtracted two-tenths of the lookback standard deviation of the close from that volume-weighted typical-price average.
Replication and follow-up windows
An independent replication applied the indicator to a large-capitalization index universe after attempting to remove survivorship bias. Follow-up tests of the volume-weighted substitution were described over five-year and ten-year windows.
All readings on this track · 33 readings
- 1988Opening-range brackets, a two-bar trend filter, and bounded stops
- 1990Bezier-curve price trend filter
- 1992Constructing a damping-index trend filter
- 1992Building a random walk index trend filter
- 1992Phase diagrams for moving-average trend filters
- 1993Volume-weighted change smoothing and trend ranking
- 1993Concurrent highest-low filter with a largest-low-fall trigger
- 1994Unit-invariant trend filters and the c-test
- 1995Constructing cup and cap entries with a three-bar net line
- 1997Why a daily timing evaluation depends on interval, lookbacks, and the fitting objective
- 2001A volume budget clock for trend-segment construction
- 2001Keep three jobs separate when you test a composite score
- 2002Evaluating the weekly four-percent close filter as a market-state procedure
- 2003Constructing a confirmed zigzag trend filter
- 2004Decompose high, low, and close into separate forecast streams
- 2005Three-state moving-average breakout bar coloring
- 2005Constructing a volume and move-adjusted trend filter
- 2005A fifty-day average breakout as a trend permission filter
- 2005Current-bar inclusion can mute a stochastic channel break
- 2006A stochastic oscillator gated by a long-term exponential average
- 2010A construction test for a modified volume-price trend filter
- 2011Constructing a Spearman rank trend filter
- 2013Constructing a repeated-median slope as a resistant trend filter
- 2014Combining a relative-strength index and trend filters for oversold setups
- 2014Price-rooted lookbacks for a relative strength index, a moving average, and a trend filter
- 2015Evaluating next-session intermarket range forecasts
- 2018Read the intermarket weight matrix first, then the predicted moving-average filter
- 2018Constructing the stiffness trend filter from moving-average holds
- 2018The averaging kernel and the lagged trend gate are separate specifications
- 2019A trend filter is not ready to compare until portfolio constraints are written down
- 2019Lookback, threshold, and position-capacity for a stiffness trend-filter
- 2020Combining a trend filter with a moving average and a stochastic oscillator
- 2020Constructing a relative-strength oscillator with a rank-agreement trend filter