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2018issue C128

The averaging kernel and the lagged trend gate are separate specifications

A published stiffness-style entry required a stiffness reading with lookbacks of 100 and 60 to cross above 90, and it compared a 100-period exponential average of a broad market proxy with the same average two sampling intervals earlier. Editorial reading: the averaging kernel that defines the local trend, and the lookback lag that turns that market average into a trend gate, are two specifications, not one branded indicator.

  • One published buy rule required a stiffness reading computed with lookbacks of 100 and 60 to cross above 90.
  • A second published buy rule compared a 100-period exponential average of a broad market proxy with the same average two sampling intervals earlier.
  • Correspondence identified that the second buy condition as first printed omitted the two-interval lookback lag on the exponential average.
  • A robustness check replaced the simple moving average inside the indicator with volume-weighted, sine-weighted, triangular-weighted, and recursively weighted averages.
Entries in this reading2 entries

Two published buy rules

A published stiffness-style buy setup stated two conditions rather than one. One published buy rule required a stiffness reading computed with lookbacks of 100 and 60 to cross above 90. That stiffness filter is a lookback-based trend-quality measure.

A second published buy rule compared a 100-period exponential average of a broad market proxy with the same average two sampling intervals earlier.

The omitted lookback lag

Correspondence identified that the second buy condition as first printed omitted the two-interval lag on the exponential average. A lookback lag is a fixed shift of a series by a stated number of sampling intervals so a comparison is not contemporaneous with itself.

The intended second condition is therefore a comparison of the 100-period exponential average with the same series two sampling intervals earlier, not a comparison of that average with itself at the same time.

Substituting the averaging kernel

A robustness check replaced the simple moving average inside the indicator with volume-weighted, sine-weighted, triangular-weighted, and recursively weighted averages. Those substitutions change the averaging kernel, the weighting scheme inside the moving average.

The volume-weighted moving average was formed from typical price, the arithmetic mean of a bar's high, low, and close, rather than from the close alone. In that kernel, each price observation is scaled by that period's volume before dividing by total volume.

One stated variant subtracted two-tenths of the lookback standard deviation of the close from that volume-weighted typical-price average.

Replication and follow-up windows

An independent replication applied the indicator to a large-capitalization index universe after attempting to remove survivorship bias. Follow-up tests of the volume-weighted substitution were described over five-year and ten-year windows.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
29 of 33 in the Trend filter track
20196-6 pp.Next on Trend filterA trend filter is not ready to compare until portfolio constraints are written downReconstructors asked for the exact position-sizing method used in the backtest, not only the trend-filter rule.
All readings on this track · 33 readings
  1. 1988Opening-range brackets, a two-bar trend filter, and bounded stops
  2. 1990Bezier-curve price trend filter
  3. 1992Constructing a damping-index trend filter
  4. 1992Building a random walk index trend filter
  5. 1992Phase diagrams for moving-average trend filters
  6. 1993Volume-weighted change smoothing and trend ranking
  7. 1993Concurrent highest-low filter with a largest-low-fall trigger
  8. 1994Unit-invariant trend filters and the c-test
  9. 1995Constructing cup and cap entries with a three-bar net line
  10. 1997Why a daily timing evaluation depends on interval, lookbacks, and the fitting objective
  11. 2001A volume budget clock for trend-segment construction
  12. 2001Keep three jobs separate when you test a composite score
  13. 2002Evaluating the weekly four-percent close filter as a market-state procedure
  14. 2003Constructing a confirmed zigzag trend filter
  15. 2004Decompose high, low, and close into separate forecast streams
  16. 2005Three-state moving-average breakout bar coloring
  17. 2005Constructing a volume and move-adjusted trend filter
  18. 2005A fifty-day average breakout as a trend permission filter
  19. 2005Current-bar inclusion can mute a stochastic channel break
  20. 2006A stochastic oscillator gated by a long-term exponential average
  21. 2010A construction test for a modified volume-price trend filter
  22. 2011Constructing a Spearman rank trend filter
  23. 2013Constructing a repeated-median slope as a resistant trend filter
  24. 2014Combining a relative-strength index and trend filters for oversold setups
  25. 2014Price-rooted lookbacks for a relative strength index, a moving average, and a trend filter
  26. 2015Evaluating next-session intermarket range forecasts
  27. 2018Read the intermarket weight matrix first, then the predicted moving-average filter
  28. 2018Constructing the stiffness trend filter from moving-average holds
  29. 2018The averaging kernel and the lagged trend gate are separate specifications
  30. 2019A trend filter is not ready to compare until portfolio constraints are written down
  31. 2019Lookback, threshold, and position-capacity for a stiffness trend-filter
  32. 2020Combining a trend filter with a moving average and a stochastic oscillator
  33. 2020Constructing a relative-strength oscillator with a rank-agreement trend filter
All 137 readings tagged Trend filter
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