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2018issue C0343-45

Read the intermarket weight matrix first, then the predicted moving-average filter

A 2018 product case study isolated thirty related markets as a numeric intermarket weight matrix and displayed predicted moving averages beside a typical-price forecast. Editorial teaching: read the matrix as context, then read the predicted stack as a short-horizon trend filter, not as an entry ticket.

  • The case study isolated thirty related markets and stored their influence as an intermarket weight matrix, rather than as a single pairwise correlation.
  • The visible stack included predicted short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving-average crossovers and differences, plus a predicted next-session high and low range.
  • One index compared a current three-day moving average with a predicted three-day moving average to state whether typical price would be higher or lower two days later.
  • The software did not generate buy or sell instructions. Users were expected to combine the near-term directional output with their own reading of the target market.
Entries in this reading3 entries

A two-layer chart read

A 2018 product case study described searching daily observations from thousands of global markets to isolate thirty related markets with the greatest influence on a chosen target, then encoding that influence as a numeric intermarket weight matrix.

The same write-up also showed predicted moving averages, predicted differences, a predicted next-session high and low range, and a typical-price forecast. Editorial: read those pieces as two layers. First collapse the global book into the fixed matrix. Then treat the predicted moving-average stack as a short-horizon trend filter on typical price rather than as an entry ticket.

The intermarket weight matrix

The write-up contrasted that multi-market weight construction with computing linear correlations between only two markets at a time.

An intermarket weight matrix is a fixed set of related markets, here thirty, whose influence on one target is stored as numeric weights instead of a single pairwise correlation.

Predicted moving averages and typical price

The visible indicator set included predicted short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving-average crossovers; predicted short-term, medium-term, and long-term differences; and a predicted next-session high and low range.

A predicted moving average is a moving-average line whose level is generated from a short-horizon forecast rather than from completed prices alone.

One undisclosed index compared the current three-day moving average with a predicted three-day moving average to forecast whether typical price would be higher or lower two days later. A typical-price forecast is a two-day-ahead statement of whether the average of high, low, and close is expected to be higher or lower.

Predicted vs actual medium-term moving averages, Annaly Capital (NLY)

On Annaly Capital from 20 Oct to 15 Dec 2017 the predicted medium-term average sits below the actual average through the October decline (bearish band) and recrosses above it around mid-November as typical price turns up (bullish band). That stack is a short-horizon regime filter, not an entry ticket. Points were read off the VantagePoint daily chart in the 2018 product review, not from a printed table.
On Annaly Capital from 20 Oct to 15 Dec 2017 the predicted medium-term average sits below the actual average through the October decline (bearish band) and recrosses above it around mid-November as typical price turns up (bullish band). That stack is a short-horizon regime filter, not an entry ticket. Points were read off the VantagePoint daily chart in the 2018 product review, not from a printed table.NLY · daily · 2017-10-20T00:00:00.000Z to 2017-12-15T00:00:00.000Z

Digitized from the lower pane of the page-43 screenshot (daily bars, Medium-Predict vs Medium-Actual). Y values are approximate to about 0.05 dollar; the review does not print the series. NeuralXMax and the candlesticks themselves were not transcribed.

A trend filter, not a ticket

An accompanying chart used green shading for bullish trend segments and red shading for bearish segments when illustrating forecasted trend direction from predictive moving averages.

Editorial: treat that shading as a trend filter, a directional overlay that marks bullish versus bearish segments without issuing an entry or exit instruction.

The software was described as not generating buy or sell instructions. Users were expected to combine the near-term directional output with their own reading of the target market.

Coverage and a detached market scan

Listed coverage included close to 2,000 symbols spanning futures groups, 13 major and 21 cross currency pairs, multiple ETF categories, and US and Canadian stocks, plus near-term movement forecasts for bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin.

Forecast calculations were moved to a remote server so chart data appeared when a chart was opened. A market-scan function was detached from portfolios and charts so multiple scans could be stored independently. A market scan is a saved, chart-independent screen that ranks a chosen universe by the same predicted indicators.

How the write-up described the patents

The case study cited a 2013 patent on locating related intermarkets and a second patent on converting lagging indicators into leading indicators intended to forecast trend and trend change a few days ahead.

The second patent is the leading transformation in this article: a claimed recast of a lagging average into a few-days-ahead reading of trend and trend change.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
27 of 33 in the Trend filter track
201810-15 pp.Next on Trend filterConstructing the stiffness trend filter from moving-average holdsStiffness counts how many recent closes held above a long moving average after a small volatility buffer is subtracted, then scales that count to a 0-100 score.
All readings on this track · 33 readings
  1. 1988Opening-range brackets, a two-bar trend filter, and bounded stops
  2. 1990Bezier-curve price trend filter
  3. 1992Constructing a damping-index trend filter
  4. 1992Building a random walk index trend filter
  5. 1992Phase diagrams for moving-average trend filters
  6. 1993Volume-weighted change smoothing and trend ranking
  7. 1993Concurrent highest-low filter with a largest-low-fall trigger
  8. 1994Unit-invariant trend filters and the c-test
  9. 1995Constructing cup and cap entries with a three-bar net line
  10. 1997Why a daily timing evaluation depends on interval, lookbacks, and the fitting objective
  11. 2001A volume budget clock for trend-segment construction
  12. 2001Keep three jobs separate when you test a composite score
  13. 2002Evaluating the weekly four-percent close filter as a market-state procedure
  14. 2003Constructing a confirmed zigzag trend filter
  15. 2004Decompose high, low, and close into separate forecast streams
  16. 2005Three-state moving-average breakout bar coloring
  17. 2005Constructing a volume and move-adjusted trend filter
  18. 2005A fifty-day average breakout as a trend permission filter
  19. 2005Current-bar inclusion can mute a stochastic channel break
  20. 2006A stochastic oscillator gated by a long-term exponential average
  21. 2010A construction test for a modified volume-price trend filter
  22. 2011Constructing a Spearman rank trend filter
  23. 2013Constructing a repeated-median slope as a resistant trend filter
  24. 2014Combining a relative-strength index and trend filters for oversold setups
  25. 2014Price-rooted lookbacks for a relative strength index, a moving average, and a trend filter
  26. 2015Evaluating next-session intermarket range forecasts
  27. 2018Read the intermarket weight matrix first, then the predicted moving-average filter
  28. 2018Constructing the stiffness trend filter from moving-average holds
  29. 2018The averaging kernel and the lagged trend gate are separate specifications
  30. 2019A trend filter is not ready to compare until portfolio constraints are written down
  31. 2019Lookback, threshold, and position-capacity for a stiffness trend-filter
  32. 2020Combining a trend filter with a moving average and a stochastic oscillator
  33. 2020Constructing a relative-strength oscillator with a rank-agreement trend filter
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