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2015issue C1240-44

Evaluating next-session intermarket range forecasts

A historical review compared a printed next-session high and low with the bar that followed. The useful check is whether that range holds once the session completes, and whether a printed extreme is then used only as a stop bound inside a trend that is already identified.

  • A next-session range is a forecast of the following day's expected high and low, not a plot of prices that have already printed.
  • Walk-forward overlay judges that print by placing the next completed bar on the prior forecast, rather than scoring only in-sample history.
  • Intermarket analysis first identifies which related markets most influence a target, then a trend filter is built from moving averages and other predictive series.
  • In the archive example, a predicted high was the reference for a stop-loss exit on a short in a downtrend, not an automated entry.
Entries in this reading3 entries

A printed next-session range

The archive describes a forecasting package that printed a next-session range, meaning the following day's expected high and low. That print was presented as different from charting tools that only plot current and historical prices. The review compared the prior session's predicted high and low with the next completed session on an e-mini S&P 500 chart.

Walk-forward overlay as the check

A prior accuracy protocol asked whether a price prediction fell inside a moving average of price. The later review instead used walk-forward overlay. It judged the forecast by placing the next completed bar on top of the prior print, rather than scoring the print only on in-sample history.

Intermarket screening then a trend filter

Intermarket analysis here meant reading prices and related series from several markets to judge which of them most influence a chosen target. Screening identified those related markets first. A neural-network search then selected moving-average combinations and other predictive series for short-, medium-, and long-term studies.

The reviewer treated the tool as a trend-forecasting aid with leading-type indicators. A leading-type indicator is a series built to anticipate short-term extremes or trend turns rather than to confirm them after the bar closes. The reviewer did not treat the tool as an automated system that emits entries, exits, or risk rules.

Each new release retrained the networks on recent history across equities, futures, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded funds. The edition covered a wide market list and offered a scanner with user-chosen filters for trend direction, strength, momentum, possible turns, and next-day extremes. A trend filter in this setting is a quantitative readout of direction, strength, or a possible turn over a stated sampling interval and lookback.

A predicted high as a stop bound

In a downtrend example, the predicted high was used as the reference level for a buy-stop exit on a short position. That use is a stop-loss: a pre-set exit that bounds loss or exposure while a position is open. The archive records that printed extreme as an exit reference on an open short, not as an automated entry.

Next-session printed range versus the completed bar

The completed high came in under the printed high, so a buy-stop above that print would have held a short already aligned with the downtrend; the completed low sat just under the printed low. All four prices are the review’s comparison table of yesterday’s forecast range against today’s closed-out extremes.
The completed high came in under the printed high, so a buy-stop above that print would have held a short already aligned with the downtrend; the completed low sat just under the printed low. All four prices are the review’s comparison table of yesterday’s forecast range against today’s closed-out extremes.next session versus the completed bar

Single-session walk-forward overlay only. The review does not publish a multi-day hit rate for this check.

Listing defects and unchanged forecasts

The reviewer recorded print-layout defects in data listings and stated those defects did not change the forecast figures.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
26 of 33 in the Trend filter track
201843-45 pp.Next on Trend filterRead the intermarket weight matrix first, then the predicted moving-average filterThe case study isolated thirty related markets and stored their influence as an intermarket weight matrix, rather than as a single pairwise correlation.
All readings on this track · 33 readings
  1. 1988Opening-range brackets, a two-bar trend filter, and bounded stops
  2. 1990Bezier-curve price trend filter
  3. 1992Constructing a damping-index trend filter
  4. 1992Building a random walk index trend filter
  5. 1992Phase diagrams for moving-average trend filters
  6. 1993Volume-weighted change smoothing and trend ranking
  7. 1993Concurrent highest-low filter with a largest-low-fall trigger
  8. 1994Unit-invariant trend filters and the c-test
  9. 1995Constructing cup and cap entries with a three-bar net line
  10. 1997Why a daily timing evaluation depends on interval, lookbacks, and the fitting objective
  11. 2001A volume budget clock for trend-segment construction
  12. 2001Keep three jobs separate when you test a composite score
  13. 2002Evaluating the weekly four-percent close filter as a market-state procedure
  14. 2003Constructing a confirmed zigzag trend filter
  15. 2004Decompose high, low, and close into separate forecast streams
  16. 2005Three-state moving-average breakout bar coloring
  17. 2005Constructing a volume and move-adjusted trend filter
  18. 2005A fifty-day average breakout as a trend permission filter
  19. 2005Current-bar inclusion can mute a stochastic channel break
  20. 2006A stochastic oscillator gated by a long-term exponential average
  21. 2010A construction test for a modified volume-price trend filter
  22. 2011Constructing a Spearman rank trend filter
  23. 2013Constructing a repeated-median slope as a resistant trend filter
  24. 2014Combining a relative-strength index and trend filters for oversold setups
  25. 2014Price-rooted lookbacks for a relative strength index, a moving average, and a trend filter
  26. 2015Evaluating next-session intermarket range forecasts
  27. 2018Read the intermarket weight matrix first, then the predicted moving-average filter
  28. 2018Constructing the stiffness trend filter from moving-average holds
  29. 2018The averaging kernel and the lagged trend gate are separate specifications
  30. 2019A trend filter is not ready to compare until portfolio constraints are written down
  31. 2019Lookback, threshold, and position-capacity for a stiffness trend-filter
  32. 2020Combining a trend filter with a moving average and a stochastic oscillator
  33. 2020Constructing a relative-strength oscillator with a rank-agreement trend filter
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