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2013issue C1363-68

Soybean seasonal highs in a five-year carryover regime

A drought-driven soybean rally is scored only after a five-year ending-stocks table and a concurrent equity-demand-regime sit beside the midsummer-high, so seasonal entry, an option-floor hedge, and abstention can be checked as one procedure.

  • Treat tightness as a carryover-regime by comparing several years of ending-stocks, not by reading one season in isolation.
  • Score a midsummer-high only after the grain balance-sheet is set beside the concurrent equity-demand-regime.
  • Use old-crop prices as the near-term reference when a seasonal exit or option-floor is specified.
  • Check seasonal entry, hedge, and abstention as one procedure, because neither price pattern nor inventory analysis alone was treated as sufficient.
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Current trackSeasonality analysis65 readingsSeasonal analysis67 readingsSeasonal trading90 readings

A harvest trade as a regime test

A five-year soybean ending-stocks comparison was assembled after a drought-driven grain rally to test whether that season's projected carryover was the tightest print in the window.

Editorial reading: the case asks whether a midsummer-high can be scored before that print is placed inside a multi-year carryover-regime and a concurrent equity-demand-regime.

The five-year carryover table

US soybean ending-stock projections were recorded as 110 million bushels in 2008-09, 150 million in 2009-10, 225 million in 2010-11, 145 million in 2011-12, and a tentative 115 million in 2012-13.

World soybean ending-stock projections for the same five marketing years were recorded as 40.22, 62.85, 68.82, 51.94, and a tentative 55.66 million metric tons.

The 2012-13 US stock projection was treated as comparable to 2008-09, while world carryover was described as less tight than in that earlier year.

Editorial reading: US ending-stocks looked as tight as the earlier window, but world carryover did not. The carryover-regime is therefore mixed rather than a clean replay.

The 2008 analog and the equity-demand-regime

After the 2008-09 tight-carryover window, soybeans approached a July 2008 high of $16.63 and later traded below $11 once the subsequent report was out.

A mid-2008 drop in a broad US equity index was cited as a demand regime that pushed grain prices below what the grain balance-sheet alone implied, and by 2012-13 that index was described as returning toward pre-2008 levels while consumers were more price-sensitive.

Editorial reading: an equity-demand-regime can move grain prices off the inventory script, so the balance-sheet is not read alone.

Scoring the midsummer-high

The case set a seasonal-high reference of the July 2008 peak plus or minus $0.50 and noted that soybeans had already exceeded that 2008 high by $1.30.

A monthly soybean series was used to mark repeated retreats from midsummer highs, and a similar 2013 fade was treated as the working path if later inventory prints stayed at their lows and a Southern Hemisphere crop was at least average.

Monthly soybean continuation through the 2012 drought peak

A trader should see the 2008 midsummer spike and the 2012 drought spike both give back several hundred cents within a few months, which is the analog used to argue for a floor near the last 1423-cent print rather than chasing the high. Monthly levels were read from the published ZS candlestick pane; the final bar matches the printed 1422-6 close.
A trader should see the 2008 midsummer spike and the 2012 drought spike both give back several hundred cents within a few months, which is the analog used to argue for a floor near the last 1423-cent print rather than chasing the high. Monthly levels were read from the published ZS candlestick pane; the final bar matches the printed 1422-6 close.November soybeans (ZS) · Monthly · 2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2013-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Closes are raster reads to the nearest 10–20 cents except the last quoted bar. The pane is monthly November/continuation soybeans, not a single cash series.

An option-floor beside old-crop prices

The write-up specified a hedge procedure that kept residual upside through options while placing a floor near then-current prices, using old-crop corn near $7.00 and old-crop soybeans near $14 as the reference levels.

Neither price-pattern nor inventory analysis alone was treated as sufficient.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
30 of 41 in the Seasonality analysis track
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All readings on this track · 41 readings
  1. 1989Evaluating venue volume as a speculation-breadth signal
  2. 1991A thirty-name price-weighted average as a seasonal regime classroom
  3. 1991Ranked half-year rate changes as an equity signal filter
  4. 1991Demographic wave as a market-regime overlay
  5. 1994Seasonal range regimes as a futures context overlay
  6. 1996Evaluating presidential party terms as equity regimes
  7. 1996A dominant cycle is a baseline, not a reprint
  8. 1996Seasonality and presidential election cycle regimes
  9. 1997Stacking calendar regimes around election years
  10. 1997Calendar seasonality as a testable trading procedure
  11. 1997Lunar phase delay as a testable seasonal regime
  12. 1998Seasonal system construction without curve-fitting
  13. 1999Crowd life cycle as a market regime map
  14. 2001Regime-dependent cycle timing after four-year and seasonal lows
  15. 2002A 2002 case study in regime-first seasonal selection
  16. 2002Seasonal windows and dominant-cycle rules
  17. 2002Fifty-four-year wholesale cycle as an inflation-deflation regime map
  18. 2004The championship conference rule as a yearly regime case study
  19. 2004Election-year seasonality as trade regime context
  20. 2006Two-ten inversion as an intermarket regime filter
  21. 2006Midterm-to-presidential seasonal holding window
  22. 2008Two-layer equity regimes from seasonality and price history
  23. 2008Seasonal futures as a regime filter, not a calendar rule
  24. 2008Retesting seasonal rules when regimes change
  25. 2010Corn and wheat staggered calendars as dollar-neutral seasonal spreads
  26. 2011Name the S&P 500 trend regime before using weekly and monthly seasonality
  27. 2012Seasonal windows that wait for confirmation
  28. 2013Pair-sleeve rotation as a two-state sector regime-switch
  29. 2013Lunar phase as a seasonal overlay on implied volatility
  30. 2013Soybean seasonal highs in a five-year carryover regime
  31. 2014Year-end tax-loss selling as a seasonal regime
  32. 2017Calendar-window overlays that mute mechanical signals without rewriting the system
  33. 2017A four-year cycle and volume case study of a secular bear
  34. 2017Treat the valuation climate as climate and implied-volatility extremes as weather
  35. 2019Seasonal depth versus tracking for futures position sizing
  36. 2019Stacking cycle forecasts with seasonal regimes
  37. 2019Hit-rate gates for seasonal regime evaluation
  38. 2019July to October as a seasonal window, not a reason to own the name
  39. 2020A recession-regime checklist from valuation stretch and the yield curve
  40. 2020Treat a seasonal idea as a stay-or-sit holding procedure
  41. 2020A single position as a sleeve on a seasonal regime map
By fieldSeasonality and regimes131 readingsBy year2013106 readings
All 65 readings tagged Seasonality analysis
Also on Seasonality analysis5 readings
1991A thirty-name price-weighted average as a seasonal regime classroom1997Stacking calendar regimes around election years2006Midterm-to-presidential seasonal holding window2008Retesting seasonal rules when regimes change2008Seasonal futures as a regime filter, not a calendar rule