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2010issue C0949

Reverse-entry exits for pairs, pivots and support

A pairs or single-name trade is allowed only when three gates agree: a pre-set long-short-bias, a reverse-entry-exit already mapped from pivot points and support-resistance, and confirmation from session structure or market-tick extremes. If any gate fails, the procedure is to abstain.

  • An exit can be specified with the same criteria as an entry, only reversed: it is the price at which a good opposite-direction entry would appear.
  • A pairs position begins with a long-short-bias on related names that share a sector and similar income sources, then times both legs together.
  • A pivot-point is a reference price used to judge whether directional movement is likely to stall, and support-resistance levels are candidate entry and exit locations.
  • Session timing and a reading of 900 or more market ticks in either direction are confirmation tests. If they fail to confirm, the procedure is to abstain.
Entries in this reading3 entries

A single testable procedure

Editorial framing: TradersWeek presents the historical workflow as one procedure, not as separate tips. A pairs or single-name trade is allowed only when three gates agree.

The first gate is a pre-set long-short-bias. The second is a reverse-entry-exit already mapped from pivot points and support-resistance. The third is confirmation from session structure or market-tick extremes. If any gate fails, the procedure is to abstain.

Set the long-short bias first

Pairs-trading is a two-leg structure that first assigns a multi-month ownership bias to related names, then times both sides together. The long-short-bias is the directional preference for which pair leg to own and which to sell, and it is set before any timing decision.

A pairs position begins with that ownership bias from fundamentals. The two companies must share a sector and similar income sources rather than a superficial industry match.

After the pair and direction are chosen, entry timing uses technical overlays of each name against a broad market index, plus pricing levels, support and resistance, and moving averages.

Map the reverse-entry exit

An exit can be specified with the same criteria as an entry, only reversed. A reverse-entry-exit is the price at which a good opposite-direction entry would appear. That price is mapped before the trade is allowed.

A pivot-point is a reference price used to judge whether directional movement is likely to stall. Pivot points are used in the same way for overall market direction.

Support-resistance means repeated price levels where prior trade and volume cluster. Those levels are treated as candidate entry and exit locations.

Names traded repeatedly, including as a pair leg, supply usable expectations for typical daily price movement and for volume concentrating at particular price levels. A volatility-band is a per-name range estimate derived from that name's own volatility, used to judge typical versus stretched movement. Volatility-based bands around each name are used to estimate a typical range, with a one-standard-deviation move treated as occurring about two-thirds of the time.

Confirm or abstain

A reading of 900 or more market ticks in either direction is treated as a likely reversal cue.

Session timing is part of the exit rule. Volume often thins between 11:00 and 14:00 Eastern. Short-covering is expected near the close. A second session phase is observed at 14:00. Market-on-close imbalances at 15:45 are used to read late-day strength or weakness. A market-on-close-imbalance is a late-session indication of buy or sell pressure.

Editorial application: if session structure or those market-tick extremes fail to confirm the planned reverse-entry-exit, the third gate fails and the procedure is to abstain.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
18 of 38 in the Pivot point track
201149-49 pp.Next on Pivot pointSequencing pairs, futures pivots, and implied volatilityWaiting for nearly every confirmation to align is a common late-entry error, because only five of seven checks are expected to line up in a continuously changing market.
All readings on this track · 38 readings
  1. 1988Constructing action-reaction lines from two pivots
  2. 1988Constructing intradaily point-and-figure boxes and pivot ladders
  3. 1991Constructing layered support and resistance from swings, pivots, and retracements
  4. 1994Three locks on a day-session order, then a staged exit
  5. 1994Building a five-level daily pivot grid
  6. 1996Constructing daily pivot points from session prices
  7. 1996Higher time frame balance points as a trend and band filter
  8. 1998Cup-with-handle construction rules
  9. 2000Pivot levels as a daily trade hypothesis
  10. 2001Construct a same-session polarity card around the daily pivot
  11. 2001Trading inside the cup-with-handle before the breakout
  12. 2005A lower-low rebound as one entry, abstention, and stop routine
  13. 2006Constructing session pivot maps from the prior high, low, and close
  14. 2006Constructing a pivot grid for stops and buy-stops
  15. 2006Monoparametric automatic trendline construction
  16. 2008Write the exit before the entry
  17. 2010Dynamic-pivot range grids for trend bias
  18. 2010Reverse-entry exits for pairs, pivots and support
  19. 2011Sequencing pairs, futures pivots, and implied volatility
  20. 2013Constructing Camarilla levels from prior range
  21. 2013Camarilla levels as a multi-timeframe map of reversion and breakout
  22. 2013Constructing a camarilla-grid from a completed lookback range
  23. 2013Constructing daily pivot support and resistance rungs
  24. 2014Constructing daily pivot levels from prior-session OHLC
  25. 2014Next-session pivot support and resistance from daily bars
  26. 2014Constructing session pivot rails from the prior-day range
  27. 2014Evaluating moving-average, pivot, and support-resistance filters
  28. 2016Stage a Trailing stop toward a planned target
  29. 2016Smoothed RSI and full-cut pivots for option-income exits
  30. 2017Constructing a weekly seasonality pivot scaffold
  31. 2017Seasonality and pivot points as scenario maps, not forecasts
  32. 2018Wave pivots, strength filters, and option premium
  33. 2018Constructing Fibonacci and daily pivot support maps
  34. 2018Building a daily pivot lattice with Fibonacci rails
  35. 2019Prior-session pivot channels for same-day entries
  36. 2019Constructing intraday pivot channels from prior-session levels
  37. 2020Variable-strength pivot highs as falsifiable entry filters
  38. 2020A high-volume-pivot long after a multi-week decline
All 45 readings tagged Pivot point
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