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2020issue C117

A high-volume-pivot long after a multi-week decline

After at least two weeks of decline, this construction waits for a small reversal, requires a volume-multiple on two consecutive rising sessions, and uses a move of at least 0.50 dollars above the two-day-pivot-high as the long trigger, with an initial-stop and a trailing-stop bounding risk.

  • The scan begins on charts with at least two weeks of sustained decline and waits for a small upside reversal before any entry rule is applied.
  • A high-volume-pivot needs two consecutive rising sessions at a volume-multiple; the long trigger is a move of at least 0.50 dollars above the two-day-pivot-high.
  • An initial-stop sits one dollar below the entry day's low, and a two-dollar trailing-stop keeps the remaining loss bound after entry.
  • Bottom-fishing near a suspected low is presented as frequently failing when a brief bounce continues lower, so exceptional volume is required at the pivot.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackPivot point45 readingsVolume-price analysis129 readingsStop-loss order144 readings

Where the scan begins

The construction begins with charts that have at least two weeks of sustained decline. It then waits for a small upside reversal. No entry rule is applied until that sequence is present.

Volume-price confirmation at the high-volume-pivot

Volume-price confirmation requires at least two consecutive sessions with rising prices and a volume-multiple, meaning daily volume of at least two to three times the average.

A high-volume-pivot is a turn after a multi-week decline that is treated as a setup only when that unusual volume arrives with the first rising days.

The long trigger at the two-day-pivot-high

The two-day-pivot-high is the high of that pair of consecutive high-volume up days. The long trigger is a move of at least 0.50 dollars above that high.

Initial-stop and trailing-stop

Risk is bounded with an initial-stop placed one dollar below the low of the day the position is opened. After entry, a trailing-stop of two dollars is used as a follow-along exit so the remaining loss stays bound as price moves.

SQQQ daily price through the 2020 downtrend and September pivot

SQQQ sells off for six months after the March spike, from the mid-150s into the high 20s — the multi-week decline the scan is built to find. The small bounce around 3 September sits under the declining 50-day average and is the high-volume pivot the article marks for the long setup. Dollar levels were read from the axis of the published six-month daily candle chart; no price table was printed.
SQQQ sells off for six months after the March spike, from the mid-150s into the high 20s — the multi-week decline the scan is built to find. The small bounce around 3 September sits under the declining 50-day average and is the high-volume pivot the article marks for the long setup. Dollar levels were read from the axis of the published six-month daily candle chart; no price table was printed.ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) · daily · 2020-03-02T00:00:00.000Z to 2020-09-10T00:00:00.000Z

Closes are approximate readings at labeled dates and visible turns, rounded to the nearest dollar. Source candles are too small to recover exact session OHLC. Volume is annotated on the original as a late spike near 150 million shares but cannot share this price axis.

Buyer groups in the pivot narrative

The pivot narrative names two buyer groups. The first is short-covering, buying by large short holders closing positions, labeled a short squeeze and described as the primary flow behind a high-volume turn. The second is speculative longs.

Cues that sit outside the core rule

On the illustrated chart, a move above the fifty-period-average, a 50-period simple moving average, is cited as an additional cue that a pivot long is indicated.

A hammer or bullish engulfing at a relevant chart location is described as a desirable extra confirmation, not as the core volume-pivot rule.

Why bottom-fishing is treated as unreliable

Buying near a suspected low is presented as frequently failing when a brief bounce continues lower. That is why exceptional volume is required at the pivot.

Bottom-fishing, buying near an assumed low before the decline has clearly failed, is treated as unreliable without volume confirmation.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
38 of 38 in the Pivot point track
1988Track finished · Next track: Point and figure chartConstructing trend definitions with filters and lines60 readings
All readings on this track · 38 readings
  1. 1988Constructing action-reaction lines from two pivots
  2. 1988Constructing intradaily point-and-figure boxes and pivot ladders
  3. 1991Constructing layered support and resistance from swings, pivots, and retracements
  4. 1994Three locks on a day-session order, then a staged exit
  5. 1994Building a five-level daily pivot grid
  6. 1996Constructing daily pivot points from session prices
  7. 1996Higher time frame balance points as a trend and band filter
  8. 1998Cup-with-handle construction rules
  9. 2000Pivot levels as a daily trade hypothesis
  10. 2001Construct a same-session polarity card around the daily pivot
  11. 2001Trading inside the cup-with-handle before the breakout
  12. 2005A lower-low rebound as one entry, abstention, and stop routine
  13. 2006Constructing session pivot maps from the prior high, low, and close
  14. 2006Constructing a pivot grid for stops and buy-stops
  15. 2006Monoparametric automatic trendline construction
  16. 2008Write the exit before the entry
  17. 2010Dynamic-pivot range grids for trend bias
  18. 2010Reverse-entry exits for pairs, pivots and support
  19. 2011Sequencing pairs, futures pivots, and implied volatility
  20. 2013Constructing Camarilla levels from prior range
  21. 2013Camarilla levels as a multi-timeframe map of reversion and breakout
  22. 2013Constructing a camarilla-grid from a completed lookback range
  23. 2013Constructing daily pivot support and resistance rungs
  24. 2014Constructing daily pivot levels from prior-session OHLC
  25. 2014Next-session pivot support and resistance from daily bars
  26. 2014Constructing session pivot rails from the prior-day range
  27. 2014Evaluating moving-average, pivot, and support-resistance filters
  28. 2016Stage a Trailing stop toward a planned target
  29. 2016Smoothed RSI and full-cut pivots for option-income exits
  30. 2017Constructing a weekly seasonality pivot scaffold
  31. 2017Seasonality and pivot points as scenario maps, not forecasts
  32. 2018Wave pivots, strength filters, and option premium
  33. 2018Constructing Fibonacci and daily pivot support maps
  34. 2018Building a daily pivot lattice with Fibonacci rails
  35. 2019Prior-session pivot channels for same-day entries
  36. 2019Constructing intraday pivot channels from prior-session levels
  37. 2020Variable-strength pivot highs as falsifiable entry filters
  38. 2020A high-volume-pivot long after a multi-week decline
By fieldEntry and exit rules206 readingsBy year202085 readings
All 45 readings tagged Pivot point
Also on Pivot point5 readings
1998Cup-with-handle construction rules2001Trading inside the cup-with-handle before the breakout2000Pivot levels as a daily trade hypothesis2005A lower-low rebound as one entry, abstention, and stop routine2006Constructing a pivot grid for stops and buy-stops