Skip to main content
Track Dominant cycle detection
29 / 31
Search the archiveLibrary
Library

2015issue C0648-49

Dominant-cycle alignment before an earnings catalyst

One finished 23-month downtrend is used as a classroom for dominant-cycle detection. A measured trough-to-trough-interval and cycle-oscillator-confluence had to be in place before an earnings print could be treated as more than a catalyst.

  • The daily dominant-cycle was measured as an average 14-bar trough-to-trough-interval and was used only as confirming evidence of the April 2015 turn.
  • Money-flow-divergence on an 89-day histogram, daily keltner-band-reentry, and weekly cycle-oscillator-confluence were already in place at the 22.32 low.
  • Catalyst-versus-setup keeps the earnings release as a precipitating event for a reversal that cycle, money-flow, and band readings had already marked as overdue.
  • The daily swing map still called for a brief remaining advance into a cycle high, a proportional pullback toward support, and then another advance.
Entries in this reading1 entry
Current trackDominant cycle detection119 readings

A finished downtrend as the classroom

After a multicycle peak in May 2013 near 48.48, the case-study equity declined for 23 months and printed a low of 22.32 on 2 April 2015.

Editorial reading: that completed decline is the classroom for dominant-cycle detection. The later news print is not allowed to stand in for a measured trough-to-trough-interval or for cycle-oscillator-confluence.

Flow and band evidence at the low

An 89-day money-flow histogram showed money-flow-divergence at two degrees of trend before that April 2015 low. The histogram improved while price continued to make lower levels at more than one trend degree.

On the daily chart, price briefly moved outside the extreme lower Keltner band and then returned inside the band while still drifting lower. That keltner-band-reentry is a return of price inside a volatility envelope after a brief excursion beyond the outer band.

Weekly confluence and the daily dominant-cycle

A weekly Keltner-band reversal coincided with cycle-oscillator-confluence. Four cycle oscillators bottomed and turned higher together on the same weekly bar.

The daily dominant-cycle was measured as an average of 14 bars from trough to trough and was used as confirming evidence of the turn. That trough-to-trough-interval is the bar count from one cycle low to the next and was the daily sampling horizon.

Mattel weekly price through the April 2015 trough

Weekly Mattel prices read from the 17 April 2015 pane show a year-long slide from the high thirties into the labeled 24.48 long entry at the outer Keltner envelope, then a first bounce. That measured trough is the setup; a later earnings print is only the spark.
Weekly Mattel prices read from the 17 April 2015 pane show a year-long slide from the high thirties into the labeled 24.48 long entry at the outer Keltner envelope, then a first bounce. That measured trough is the setup; a later earnings print is only the spark.Mattel Inc. (MAT) · weekly · 2014-05-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2015-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

All prices except the printed 24.48 entry are digitized from weekly candles on a raster and are only good to about half a dollar. The pane shows the last year of the 23-month decline, not the May 2013 origin at 48.48.

Catalyst versus setup

On the session when the equity moved above the upper Keltner band, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.82 percent and a broad S&P 500 proxy was down 1.40 percent.

The earnings release was framed as a precipitating catalyst for a reversal that cycle, money-flow, and band readings had already marked as overdue.

Editorial reading: catalyst-versus-setup is the distinction between a news event that ignites movement and the cycle, flow, and band conditions that already marked a turn as overdue. The archive facts describe that historical workflow. The classroom rule is editorial and is not attributed to the archive.

The mapped path after the turn

The daily swing map called for a brief remaining advance into a cycle high, then a proportional pullback toward support, then another advance. Editorial reading: that path is the forecast content of the dominant-cycle map, not a present-day instruction.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
29 of 31 in the Dominant cycle detection track
20178-12 pp.Next on Dominant cycle detectionCausal reverse exponential average for cycle and trendExponential-smoothing blends the newest observation with the prior average using complementary weights that sum to one, so a constant input settles at the same level.
All readings on this track · 31 readings
  1. 1982Cycle phase windows for chart signal filters
  2. 1987Constructing a cycle-scaled trend oscillator
  3. 1987Constructing a dominant-cycle grid from marked lows
  4. 1988Cycle lead from staggered exponential averages
  5. 1988Auditing the forty-month stock-price cycle
  6. 1989When long-wave dominant cycles cannot be disproved
  7. 1991Half-cycle average plot shift versus cycle attenuation
  8. 1991Half-cycle average contact as an amplitude-ratio test
  9. 1993Building a restoring-pull indicator from cycle frequency and volume
  10. 1995Regime filters for a dominant long wave
  11. 1995A cycle-tuned lead filter from bounded oscillators
  12. 1998Testable cycle rules instead of fear and greed
  13. 1999Nested Euro cycle timing as one checkable procedure
  14. 2002Constructing an instantaneous trendline from a dominant cycle
  15. 2002Half-cycle center of gravity oscillator from moving-average balance
  16. 2004Testing a locked forty-week cycle with a hold-or-sit-out rule
  17. 2005Nested timing bands for dominant-cycle confirmation
  18. 2005Dominant-cycle baselines versus policy-news narratives
  19. 2006Pairing a dominant-cycle horizon with trend and oscillators
  20. 2006A dominant-cycle split into a trend filter and residual Relative Strength Index
  21. 2007Construct a momentum difference from the dominant cycle
  22. 2007Naive dominant-cycle rules fail without crowd tests
  23. 2012Constructing a dominant-cycle forecast as a timing window
  24. 2012Open-parameter construction of dominant-cycle baselines
  25. 2013Using a second-term election to check a predeclared dominant-cycle forecast
  26. 2014Constructing a dominant-cycle forecast baseline
  27. 2014Quotient transform as an early-onset trend filter
  28. 2014Construct a trough-to-trough cycle map with the Detrended Price Oscillator
  29. 2015Dominant-cycle alignment before an earnings catalyst
  30. 2017Causal reverse exponential average for cycle and trend
  31. 2020Constructing a cycle-plus-trend oscillator from a one-wavelength chord
By fieldCycles and spectral analysis77 readingsBy year201585 readings
All 119 readings tagged Dominant cycle detection
Also on Dominant cycle detection5 readings
1982Cycle phase windows for chart signal filters1982Scale-free Commodity Channel Index construction1984How to construct a maximum-entropy cycle model1984Constructing maximum-entropy spectra for dominant-cycle forecasts1984Half-cycle differencing for momentum signals