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1987issue C111-4

Constructing a dominant-cycle grid from marked lows

A dominant-cycle search can be built by hand. Mark significant lows, lock a cycle-grid with even spacing, keep only alignments that pass an equal-row-test, and convert the accepted spans into an average-cycle-length that can be projected and later checked.

  • Many calculated cycle procedures cannot confirm that a cycle low occurred on the current day because delay is built into the calculations.
  • A search can begin by marking significant-turning-point lows on an ordered price series, usually after a 0.5% reversal from the prior high.
  • A candidate is accepted only when a straightedge aligns cycle-grid dots that pass the equal-row-test, with the same number of rows between them.
  • Average-cycle-length is a calendar-day figure used to project later dates, with extra attention at cycle-convergence.
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Current trackDominant cycle detection119 readings

Start from marked lows, not delayed calculations

Many calculated cycle procedures cannot confirm that a cycle low occurred on the current day because delay is built into the calculations. A dominant-cycle search can begin by marking significant lows on an ordered price series and testing those dates on a fixed overlay.

XMI closes with marked significant lows

XMI daily closes from late December 1986 through May 1987, the five-month window Hannula used to mark significant bottoms by hand. Values are read from the plotted close series in Figure 1, not from a printed table.
XMI daily closes from late December 1986 through May 1987, the five-month window Hannula used to mark significant bottoms by hand. Values are read from the plotted close series in Figure 1, not from a printed table.XMI · daily close · 1986-12-30T00:00:00.000Z to 1987-05-29T00:00:00.000Z

Raster is a mirrored scan of the magazine figure; time was restored left-to-right and prices were read from the printed 333–373 scale. Bottoms were those Hannula marked as moving at least 0.5% from the prior high, except the 12 January low he kept by eye. Y values are approximate to about one index point.

Mark significant turning points

A significant-turning-point is a low or high retained as a cycle event, usually after a minimum percentage reversal from the prior opposite extreme. The usual selection rule marks a low after a 0.5% reversal from the prior high, with rare visual exceptions.

The illustration used closes only. Routine construction preferred high/low/close bars, lows for indexes and stocks, and highs for commodities. Highs, lows, or both remain valid inputs.

Build the cycle-grid

The next construction step places evenly spaced dots in a vertical column through each marked low date so the dots also form horizontal rows on a transparent overlay. That overlay is the cycle-grid: a dotted overlay whose columns sit on marked turning-point dates and whose evenly spaced dots also form horizontal rows.

Apply the equal-row-test

A candidate cycle is accepted only when a straightedge can align dots that are separated by the same number of rows. The equal-row-test is that rule: dots on a candidate slope count as a cycle only when they are the same number of grid rows apart.

Read concurrent cycles from one grid

In the five-month index example, one alignment used five dots two rows apart and a steeper alignment used seven dots also two rows apart. Those two alignments were treated as two concurrent cycles.

Convert accepted spans to average-cycle-length

Average-cycle-length is the calendar-day span between the first and last accepted lows divided by the number of completed cycles, then used to project later dates. Four cycles in 139 days averaged 34.750 days, and six cycles in 127 days averaged 21.167 days.

Cycle length is specified in calendar days rather than trading days so the lookback continues through non-trading periods. Calendar-day-sampling measures cycle length across every calendar day rather than only sessions when the market is open.

Project the averages and watch cycle-convergence

Those average lengths are meant to be projected forward. Extra attention is given when two or more projected cycles meet at the same time. That meeting is a cycle-convergence: a date at which two or more projected cycle lows meet and therefore receive extra scrutiny.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
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19881-7 pp.Next on Dominant cycle detectionCycle lead from staggered exponential averagesAveraging constructions delay their output, while momentum or rate-of-change constructions can lead but are typically noisy and need further smoothing.
All readings on this track · 31 readings
  1. 1982Cycle phase windows for chart signal filters
  2. 1987Constructing a cycle-scaled trend oscillator
  3. 1987Constructing a dominant-cycle grid from marked lows
  4. 1988Cycle lead from staggered exponential averages
  5. 1988Auditing the forty-month stock-price cycle
  6. 1989When long-wave dominant cycles cannot be disproved
  7. 1991Half-cycle average plot shift versus cycle attenuation
  8. 1991Half-cycle average contact as an amplitude-ratio test
  9. 1993Building a restoring-pull indicator from cycle frequency and volume
  10. 1995Regime filters for a dominant long wave
  11. 1995A cycle-tuned lead filter from bounded oscillators
  12. 1998Testable cycle rules instead of fear and greed
  13. 1999Nested Euro cycle timing as one checkable procedure
  14. 2002Constructing an instantaneous trendline from a dominant cycle
  15. 2002Half-cycle center of gravity oscillator from moving-average balance
  16. 2004Testing a locked forty-week cycle with a hold-or-sit-out rule
  17. 2005Nested timing bands for dominant-cycle confirmation
  18. 2005Dominant-cycle baselines versus policy-news narratives
  19. 2006Pairing a dominant-cycle horizon with trend and oscillators
  20. 2006A dominant-cycle split into a trend filter and residual Relative Strength Index
  21. 2007Construct a momentum difference from the dominant cycle
  22. 2007Naive dominant-cycle rules fail without crowd tests
  23. 2012Constructing a dominant-cycle forecast as a timing window
  24. 2012Open-parameter construction of dominant-cycle baselines
  25. 2013Using a second-term election to check a predeclared dominant-cycle forecast
  26. 2014Constructing a dominant-cycle forecast baseline
  27. 2014Quotient transform as an early-onset trend filter
  28. 2014Construct a trough-to-trough cycle map with the Detrended Price Oscillator
  29. 2015Dominant-cycle alignment before an earnings catalyst
  30. 2017Causal reverse exponential average for cycle and trend
  31. 2020Constructing a cycle-plus-trend oscillator from a one-wavelength chord
By fieldCycles and spectral analysis77 readingsBy year198721 readings
All 119 readings tagged Dominant cycle detection
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