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Research method

Historical volatility analysis

Historical volatility analysis is a canonical archive-taxonomy method; this registry entry defines its inputs, output and use boundary.

Output
Market-regime classification
Input
Cross-market prices, volatility, carry and portfolio weights
Horizon
Weeks to months
Best use
Put a single trade into a diversified or regime-aware context.

Registry evidence level: backtested. This is a navigation record, not a performance claim.

  • Input: Cross-market prices, volatility, carry and portfolio weights.
  • Output: market-regime.
  • Use boundary: Put a single trade into a diversified or regime-aware context.
The graph3

How the method is built, and where it has been read

Depends on

Read in the archive24 of 61 readings

1985Putting listed option premiums in volatility-regime contextOptions and volatility1988When volatility, not direction, selects the option spreadOptions and volatility1988Path-aware volatility for option-replication costOptions and volatility1989Path quantiles versus net return for index velocity regimesSeasonality and regimes1989Option premium inside a volatility regimeOptions and volatility1989Constructing a delta-hedged implied versus historical volatility bookOptions and volatility1990How a 1989 Eurodollar break turned cheap volatility into a regime-aware bookOptions and volatility1990Weekly range volatility as a tactical regime filterOptions and volatility1990Constructing a two-line relative volatility indexIndicators and filters1990Constructing consistent historical and implied volatilityOptions and volatility1991Weekly close-to-close volatility as a horizon filterIndicators and filters1995A modified volatility construction for weeks-to-months regimesOptions and volatility1995A short-to-long historical-volatility ratio as a regime-gateOptions and volatility1995Why historically tested rules fail without a decision processDecision process1996Option smiles as a critique of constant volatilityOptions and volatility1996Volatility-ratio, inside-day and narrow-range-4 entry constructionEntry and exit rules1996Pairing short and long historical volatility for regime contextOptions and volatility1996Volatility contraction and narrow-range breakout rulesEntry and exit rules1997Clustered true-range days as a regime label rather than a top forecastIndicators and filters1998Normalized multi-horizon historical volatility constructionIndicators and filters1998Gold volatility breakout as one written entry and exit procedureEntry and exit rules1998Constructing a stock-book duration proxy from beta and bond marketsIntermarket and spreads2000Pair historical volatility with return-to-loss filtersOptions and volatility2001When beta hedging misreads portfolio volatilityOptions and volatility
This registry entry describes a research method. It is not investment advice and does not make a performance claim.