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2017issue C0842-43

Breakout confirmation above round numbers, with nines as sell shelves

This case withholds a long until a breakout-confirmation-offset prints above a whole-number-shelf, treats a nine-shelf as a predetermined sell zone, and keeps the multi-day hold under a 2-point fixed-dollar-trail.

  • A long is withheld from a nine through the next whole-dollar print until a 0.50 breakout-confirmation-offset prints above that whole-number-shelf, illustrated as 60.50 rather than any print from 59 to 60.
  • A nine-shelf is treated as resistance because it looks costly relative to the next round ten; the one-point band up to that multiple of 10 is an exit or tightening zone, not a place to initiate or add.
  • The swing uses a 2-point initial and trailing fixed-dollar-trail and is described as typically lasting five to 15 days.
  • After a stall near a nine, re-entry is considered only if price later clears 0.50 above the next whole-ten level, illustrated as 50.50 after a stall at 49.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackTrailing stop87 readingsSupport and resistance170 readingsBreakout confirmation172 readings

A three-part entry and exit protocol

This case withholds a long until a breakout-confirmation-offset prints above a whole-number-shelf, treats a nine-shelf as a predetermined sell zone, and keeps the whole hold under a fixed-dollar-trail.

The archive workflow uses the distance from a nine, a whole-dollar print, and the next multiple of 10 to decide when a long is delayed, when it may be taken, and where the sell zone already sits.

GLD average percent move by days held into Labor Day

A 10-year GLD backtest into Labor Day puts the strongest average percentage gain on a 14-day hold at 2.55 percent, tying the top 90 percent win rate, while a one-day hold barely prints 0.28 percent. Every bar is an exact cell from the source table, not a tracing of the yearly bars beside it.
A 10-year GLD backtest into Labor Day puts the strongest average percentage gain on a 14-day hold at 2.55 percent, tying the top 90 percent win rate, while a one-day hold barely prints 0.28 percent. Every bar is an exact cell from the source table, not a tracing of the yearly bars beside it.GLD · seasonal hold into Labor Day · 2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2015-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Each row is a 10-year buy-only window that enters N trading days before Labor Day and exits on Labor Day itself (zero days after).

Withhold the long until confirmation

A long is withheld between a nine and the next whole-dollar print. The case waits for a 0.50 confirmation above that whole number, illustrated as 60.50 rather than any print from 59 to 60.

That half-point print is the breakout-confirmation-offset. It delays the long until a probe through the round number is less likely to fail.

A push through a multiple-of-10 shelf is treated as unconfirmed until a prior failed probe at that shelf has been overcome.

Treat nines as sell shelves

Prints that contain a nine are treated as a resistance and selling zone because they are framed as looking costly relative to the next round ten. A nine-shelf is therefore a sell or exit zone, not a buy zone.

The one-point band from a nine up to the next multiple of 10 is used as an exit or trailing-stop tightening zone. It is not used as an area to initiate or add.

Bound the hold with a fixed-dollar trail

The swing is managed with a 2-point initial and trailing stop. That fixed-dollar-trail is set a fixed number of points from price at entry and then trailed so the multi-day swing stays bounded.

The hold is described as typically lasting five to 15 days.

Retry only after the next offset

After a stall near a nine, a later re-entry is considered only if price later clears 0.50 above the next whole-ten level, illustrated as 50.50 after a stall at 49.

Box the intraday range

Intraday ranges are boxed in 10-point increments. That round-ten-box is anchored on multiples of 10, with entries just above the lower ten and targets just under the upper ten.

The illustration is 42 to 49: enter just above a round ten and exit into the nine just below the next ten.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
29 of 36 in the Trailing stop track
201830-33 pp.Next on Trailing stopClassify diamond geometry before the breakoutA diamond can resolve as continuation or reversal. The rhombus shape and its internal swings, not a generic pattern label, indicate which role applies.
All readings on this track · 36 readings
  1. 1988Half-day bars, a midpoint gate, and a bar-based trail
  2. 1989Packaging two-bar reversals into testable entry and exit rules
  3. 1989Weekly high and low averages as stop-and-reverse levels
  4. 1991Constant false-alarm rate for dominant-cycle stops
  5. 1992Tick-index extremes as continuation and turn hypotheses
  6. 1993Constructing layered stops from equity and structure
  7. 1993Filter crossovers with moving-average slope
  8. 1993Precommit stop bounds from equity and structure
  9. 1998Evaluating a trendline barrier that can only tighten a capped stop
  10. 1999Constructing common-number support and resistance
  11. 2001Four-step opening-hour bias and trailing stops
  12. 2004Make the trading system the star
  13. 2005A beginner stock case: stop, trail, and the pre-trade checklist
  14. 2006Sell stops that trail support after the buy
  15. 2006Treat a wave-3 label as unfunded until the stop rails are written
  16. 2008Test medium-term divergence with a trendline break and a trailing stop
  17. 2010Rule-based forex entry, stop and trail
  18. 2012Precommitting stops when one currency range templates another
  19. 2012Cat-ears as a downtrend continuation hypothesis
  20. 2013Three-average swing entry and a trailing average exit
  21. 2014Construct a dual quotient-copy trend filter under a frequency roof
  22. 2014Stop distance, size, and trailing swing invalidation
  23. 2014Long-only RSI pullback, reversal-bar-entry, and staged-trail construction
  24. 2015Dual-average regime, trigger candle, and trail as one daily script
  25. 2015Three-gate trend system: filter, trigger, and trailing stop
  26. 2016Construct HHLLS crossover and breakout entry rules
  27. 2017An appointment-trade around a scheduled political close
  28. 2017Golden-cross breakout rules for a swing entry
  29. 2017Breakout confirmation above round numbers, with nines as sell shelves
  30. 2018Classify diamond geometry before the breakout
  31. 2019When trails and stops betray the support read
  32. 2019One-triggers-the-other pairs for preplanned swing entries
  33. 2019One-triggers-the-other orders for a breakout and its stop
  34. 2019When the second decision unbounds planned risk
  35. 2020Last-Hour Breakout With a Same-Session Flatten
  36. 2020Couple the slow period to stop-loss and trailing-stop settings
By fieldEntry and exit rules206 readingsBy year2017100 readings
All 87 readings tagged Trailing stop
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