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2001issue C031-3

Swiss franc: seasonal permission and a weekly point-and-figure breakout

A historical Swiss franc case kept monthly point-and-figure as a regime map and the seasonal calendar as a directional filter. The breakout-system stayed flat until one weekly-close-trigger printed, then expressed a long with six-month at-the-money calls and a premium-loss invalidation.

  • Monthly point-and-figure only mapped the Swiss franc decline, four congestion areas, and support at 5800. It did not open the trade.
  • Seasonal-trading treated a long signal in September as permitted and allowed shorts only in the January-June window. The calendar never replaced the price trigger.
  • The breakout-system stayed flat unless March 2001 Swiss franc futures printed a 6300 weekly close. A 5700 weekly close argued against a bullish setup.
  • A weekly close through a major downtrend line near 62 to 63 was an earlier alternative that carried a higher false-breakout risk than waiting for 6300.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackPoint and figure chart37 readingsBreakout system48 readingsSeasonal trading60 readings

Three jobs, one weekly permission

The teaching job is to keep three jobs apart. Point-and-figure is a box-and-reversal price chart built from closes rather than calendar bars. On the monthly scale it only mapped the regime: support, congestion, and the shape of the decline. Seasonal-trading only granted or withheld a long or short bias from typical time-of-year highs and lows. The breakout-system stayed flat until a single weekly-close-trigger fired.

A weekly-close-trigger depends on the week finishing beyond a stated price, not on an intraday poke through that price. Until that close printed, the historical procedure took no position.

A cotton sketch of the same wait

A prior cotton illustration of the same long-horizon procedure treated a weekly point-and-figure close at 5500 as the long trigger. After that print, price later reached about 6300. The Swiss franc case reused that wait-for-the-weekly-close idea. The cotton sketch supplied the procedure, not a Swiss franc entry.

Monthly point-and-figure as the regime map

The monthly Swiss franc point-and-figure chart framed a decline from 8900 to 5800. That decline contained four congestion areas and a five-wave structure, with major support marked at 5800. Congestion here means a sideways cluster of point-and-figure activity counted as a pause inside the larger trend, used to judge whether the decline might be terminating.

A 50 percent retracement of that monthly decline was mapped to about 7400 as a retracement-waypoint if a durable bottom formed. A retracement-waypoint is a measured structural reference taken from a completed decline. It mapped how far a countertrend advance might travel if the range broke. It was not an entry.

Seasonal-trading as a directional filter

The yearly Swiss franc seasonal template placed typical lows in the June-July window and typical highs in January. Seasonal-trading used that template as a directional filter rather than a standalone entry. Under that filter, a long signal in September was treated as seasonally permitted. Short trades were treated as valid only in the January-June window. The calendar could withhold a side. It could not fire the trade.

The weekly-close-trigger that could leave flat

The weekly point-and-figure chart defined a 6300 weekly close as the long trigger and a 5700 weekly close as the print that would argue against a bullish setup. An alternative long trigger was a weekly close through a major downtrend line near 62 to 63. That print was accepted as an earlier entry that carried a higher false-breakout risk than waiting for 6300.

The historical procedure stayed flat unless the March 2001 Swiss franc futures printed a 6300 weekly close. That stay-flat rule is the breakout-system: enter only after a predefined weekly close clears a box level or trendline, and otherwise take no position.

How a triggered long was held

A triggered long was then expressed with six-month at-the-money calls. The long was invalidated at a 30 percent loss of premium. Editorial. The 7400 retracement-waypoint remains a map, not a reason to buy before the 6300 weekly close.

December Swiss franc seasonal index, 1991–2000

From the February spike-and-crash through June the ten-year seasonal stays in the lower half of the 0–100 index, so the author’s filter keeps Swiss franc longs offside. Permission opens only after the mid-year low, as the composite climbs into an early-October crest near 100 and then washes out in November. Points were read from the Moore Research December IMM seasonal plot printed with the article; they are approximate, not taken from a table.
From the February spike-and-crash through June the ten-year seasonal stays in the lower half of the 0–100 index, so the author’s filter keeps Swiss franc longs offside. Permission opens only after the mid-year low, as the composite climbs into an early-October crest near 100 and then washes out in November. Points were read from the Moore Research December IMM seasonal plot printed with the article; they are approximate, not taken from a table.December Swiss franc futures (IMM) · 10-year seasonal composite · 1991-01-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2000-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Y-values are digitized from a small raster to the nearest few index points on a 0–100 scale and are not exact prints. The source plot is blank in January. Zupans states the filter as long June–September and short January–June; this 1991–2000 window’s dominant high is early October.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
16 of 30 in the Point and figure chart track
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  5. 1989Adjusted net asset value, tighter reversals, and written stops on a fund point-and-figure chart
  6. 1990Stack option odds after point-and-figure signals
  7. 1991Constructing a point-and-figure downtrend-break
  8. 1991Constructing point-and-figure box and reversal charts
  9. 1991Constructing a close-tested one-two ladder on a point-and-figure chart
  10. 1992Point-and-figure, breadth, and volume as falsifiable hypotheses
  11. 1992Three-gate stock selection with ranks and point and figure
  12. 1993Constructing combined stochastics and point-and-figure relative strength
  13. 1997Point-and-figure box scale and reversal construction
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  15. 2000Constructing point-and-figure charts for support, resistance, and breakouts
  16. 2001Swiss franc: seasonal permission and a weekly point-and-figure breakout
  17. 2001Constructing point-and-figure boxes and reversals
  18. 2002Point-and-figure construction: box, live column, and three-box reversal
  19. 2003E-mini point-and-figure box-size and a descending-triangle breakout
  20. 2003A reconstruction critique of point-and-figure daytrading
  21. 2004Point-and-figure column moving-average crossovers
  22. 2005Box-series transforms for trend and channel work
  23. 2006Constructing bearish point-and-figure support breaks
  24. 2008Point-and-figure forex breakouts and triangles
  25. 2012From tactile charts to written trade rules
  26. 2013Combine a Point and figure chart and Moving-average crossover inside one System optimization procedure
  27. 2015Point-and-figure time and volume limits are conventions to test
  28. 2016Measurement-first critique of indicator defaults
  29. 2017Point-and-figure construction, reversals, and column-based overlays
  30. 2019A 2019 charting case as a three-check trend classroom
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