Four-state slope labels gated by a moving average and a commodity channel index

Four states from joint slope

Stacking a trend-strength reading directly above a momentum-direction reading lets the pair be classified by joint slope into four states. The four-state slope pairing is both series rising, both series falling, strength up with momentum down, and strength down with momentum up.

The coordinated-rise state is defined only by the two series increasing with price. It does not require either series to exceed a fixed level or to cross a trigger line.

The pullback state is both series sloping down while price pauses, consolidates, or retraces. That both-falling reading marks a loss of upside momentum and does not, by itself, decide whether the prior advance will resume or a larger decline will follow.

The coordinated-decline state is trend strength rising while momentum falls, a downside push that is typically stronger than a routine retracement. The countertrend state is trend strength falling while momentum rises, usually after a decline that is stalling, and may resolve as a short rally or a new advance.

The moving-average gate

The strength series is specified with a 10-period lookback rather than the usual 14-period default so its turns align more closely with the momentum series. A 13-period exponential moving average is plotted on price to mark direction changes and to filter some labels.

An upside-state bar that prints while price is still below the moving average, or a downside-state bar that prints while price is still above it, is bar-location inconsistency. The historical workflow treats that print as a change warning rather than an action until a close crosses the average.

When labels stop persisting

During a nontrending contraction the four labels can alternate almost bar by bar. The accompanying tells are a flattened momentum series near its zero line and/or trend strength declining through the 20 level.

The commodity-channel gate

A 14-period commodity channel index around its zero line is added as a second filter because it stays signed to the lookback mean. Price-indicator divergence can appear on that oscillator while state labels and bar colors are flipping, and a moving average alone may not show that disagreement.

When the commodity channel index is above zero, pullback and countertrend labels are studied for upside follow-through as price recrosses the moving average. When it is below zero, upside labels are skipped and pullback or downtrend labels are used to track downside continuation.