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1992issue C011-4

A seven-vote sentiment score for fund-sleeve regimes

A seven-component stack scores each buy-state reading as two points and each sell-state reading as zero. Totals of 10 and 4 are treated as buy and sell regimes, after which fund sleeves can be ranked by how they responded.

  • Each of the seven components casts only a buy state worth two points or a sell state worth zero points.
  • A total of 10 points is treated as a buy regime and a reading of 4 is treated as a sell regime.
  • Adviser share, bullish advertisements, Friday put-call volume, and three futures-consensus series use fixed bands, while large-cap price versus its 20-day average supplies the trend-regime vote.
  • After a buy-regime reading, a large-cap fund, a smaller-stock fund, and several sector funds can be ranked by how they responded to that signal.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackPut-call ratio33 readingsMarket regime classification38 readingsMoving average449 readings

A seven-vote buy or sell score

The historical workflow combines seven sentiment and tape readings into one score. Each component casts only a buy-state or a sell-state. A buy-state reading is scored as 2 points and a sell-state reading is scored as 0 points.

A total of 10 points is treated as a buy regime and a reading of 4 is treated as a sell regime.

S&P 500 returns after seven-vote buy signals

Each date is a session when Duarte’s seven-vote stack reached a buy total of 10. Subsequent S&P 500 percentage changes, read from his Figure 1 table, stay positive at one month and at three months in ten of eleven cases, which is why the score is used first to flag a risk-on regime and only then to rank fund sleeves.
Each date is a session when Duarte’s seven-vote stack reached a buy total of 10. Subsequent S&P 500 percentage changes, read from his Figure 1 table, stay positive at one month and at three months in ten of eleven cases, which is why the score is used first to flag a risk-on regime and only then to rank fund sleeves.S&P 500 · 1 month to 1 year after each buy signal · 1988-08-26T00:00:00.000Z to 1991-07-19T00:00:00.000Z

The July 14, 1989 three-month return includes the October 1989 correction. Six-month and one-year cells after the 1991 signals were still open at publication and are omitted. From August 1988 through the September 22, 1991 cutoff the oscillator had issued eleven buy signals and no sell signals.

How each vote is cast

The 13-week moving average of the bullish-adviser share, defined as bulls divided by bulls plus bears, is a buy-state vote at or below 40 percent and a sell-state vote at or above 70 percent.

The four-week moving average of the bullish-advertisement count is a buy-state vote at or below 7 and a sell-state vote at or above 15. That count is a consistently scored tally of return-touting print ads, omitting short, put, neutral, and negative ads.

Friday put volume divided by call volume is a buy-state vote at or above 0.50 and a sell-state vote at or below 0.40.

Bullish-consensus readings for stock-index, Eurodollar, and Treasury-bond futures each count as a buy-state vote at or below 40 percent and a sell-state vote at or above 70 percent.

Whether the S&P 500 is above or below its 20-day moving average supplies the trend-regime vote in the seven-component score.

Money-flow context and sleeve ranking

A weekly money-flow line is the S&P 500 close minus the Value Line Geometric close and is used to see whether capital is concentrating in large-cap names versus the broader market.

After a buy-regime reading, a large-cap fund, a smaller-stock fund, and several sector funds can be ranked by how they responded to that signal.

Editorial reading: those sleeves are not interchangeable forecasts. Ranking them by response after the regime reading is a relative overlay on the buy-regime band.

Where the lookbacks and the put-call vote sit

The put-call vote is Friday put volume divided by call volume, with a contrarian buy-state at or above 0.50 and a sell-state at or below 0.40. The moving-average lookbacks used as state filters are the 13-week average of the bullish-adviser share, the four-week average of bullish advertisements, and the 20-day average of the large-cap index.

The seven-component score maps those adviser, advertisement, futures-consensus, and put-call states plus large-cap price location onto a buy regime at 10 points and a sell regime at 4 points.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
8 of 31 in the Put-call ratio track
19921-1 pp.Next on Put-call ratioConstruct an activity-weighted call-put ratio before reading crowd convictionConcentrated call activity is conventionally read as bullish crowd expectation, and concentrated put activity as bearish crowd expectation.
All readings on this track · 31 readings
  1. 1989Constructing an open-interest-scaled put-call ratio
  2. 1990Open-interest put/call ratio as an intermediate sentiment overlay
  3. 1990Activity-weighted call-put ratio for options regime context
  4. 1990Stacking moving averages, put-call regimes, and double bottoms
  5. 1991Constructing put-call open-interest regime filters
  6. 1991Constructing an activity-weighted call-put sentiment reading
  7. 1991Fund-index regime, put-call confirmation, then the tracking fund
  8. 1992A seven-vote sentiment score for fund-sleeve regimes
  9. 1992Construct an activity-weighted call-put ratio before reading crowd conviction
  10. 1992Pair action with opinion in a composite sentiment index
  11. 1992Crowd extremes as a three-gate contrary procedure
  12. 1993Constructing a put-volume average regime filter
  13. 1993Neural-net inputs and rule trees for mechanical systems
  14. 1994Failed Treasury put-call signal and a dollar regime shift
  15. 1994Separate survey, put-call, and premium ledgers before a regime call
  16. 1994Repeated option-premium prints and a four-zone regime map
  17. 1995Consecutive-day regimes in the put-call premium ratio
  18. 1995Construct a put-call ratio for regime-aware contrarian signals
  19. 1996Treat one options idea as a regime-aware portfolio decision
  20. 1997Options open interest, put-call sentiment, and contrarian context
  21. 2000A two-layer put-call construction for intermediate market conditions
  22. 2002Sentiment confirmation for trend-following options
  23. 2003Construct a regime overlay from implied volatility and the put-call ratio
  24. 2004Dollar-weighted Put-call ratio construction
  25. 2006Debit put spreads inside put-call regimes
  26. 2011Put-call ratio cycle phases for index context
  27. 2011Constructing a put-call ratio cycle indicator
  28. 2011Building a put-call ratio indicator stack
  29. 2011Put-call ratio regime context with oscillator and band confirmation
  30. 2018Reading seasonal regimes with put-call divergence and bands
  31. 2020Treat close-only volume as a hypothesis, then choose regime or phase
By fieldSeasonality and regimes93 readingsBy year1992115 readings
All 33 readings tagged Put-call ratio
Also on Put-call ratio5 readings
1990Open-interest put/call ratio as an intermediate sentiment overlay1990Stacking moving averages, put-call regimes, and double bottoms1991Constructing an activity-weighted call-put sentiment reading1991Fund-index regime, put-call confirmation, then the tracking fund1992Construct an activity-weighted call-put ratio before reading crowd conviction