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2006issue C121-4

Relocating trading certainty to the decision process

Markets are described as remaining uncertain in both ranges and trends, so a written trading plan is the starting reference for decisions. This case study follows that plan from a swing-chart read of structure through a trend-following participation rule and a pre-trade checklist that treats entry, exit, and standing aside as one procedure.

  • Markets remain uncertain in both ranges and trends, so a written trading plan is the starting reference for decisions.
  • The illustrated plan reads successive turns on a swing chart, shown by recasting a 2005 daily crude-oil series as a two-day swing chart that strips short-term noise.
  • A visible trend is incomplete without predefined entry reasons, exit reasons, and risk limits, tested with the trend rules as one procedure.
  • Market direction is treated as unknowable in advance. Remaining certainty sits in a plan that already specifies the response on every path price can take.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackSwing chart34 readingsPre-trade checklist43 readingsTrend following89 readings

Uncertainty stays in the market

Markets are described as remaining uncertain in both ranges and trends. A written trading plan is offered as the starting reference for decisions. That written procedure is the trading-plan-anchor: it supplies a stable decision reference when market outcomes remain uncertain.

The plan does not claim to know the next path of price. Remaining certainty is located in a procedure that already specifies the response no matter which path price takes.

A swing chart of successive turns

The illustrated plan is organized around a swing chart that reads successive turns in price structure. A daily crude-oil bar chart from calendar year 2005 is used to show raw price swings before any swing-chart filter is applied. The same crude-oil series is recast as a two-day swing chart to strip short-term noise and make the prevailing directional sentiment easier to see.

A swing-chart is a noise-filtered reading of OHLC swing structure used to turn a repeatable chart condition into a directional hypothesis from intraday to multi-week horizons. Swing-chart reading is presented as applicable from intraday positioning through daily, weekly, and monthly horizons.

Crude oil 2-day swing turns, 2005

The filtered 2-day swings climb from winter lows near 45 to a September high just above 70, then step lower into the autumn. Turning-point prices were read off the plotted CL Spot 1 swing chart; the source printed no table.
The filtered 2-day swings climb from winter lows near 45 to a September high just above 70, then step lower into the autumn. Turning-point prices were read off the plotted CL Spot 1 swing chart; the source printed no table.CL Spot 1 · 2-day swing · 2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2005-11-30T00:00:00.000Z

Prices are approximate to about 0.3 USD against the 1.00 grid. Calendar dates for each turn are placed from monthly axis ticks. The figure’s last-price marker reads 52.107, below the final visible swing.

Trend following still needs a written response

Seeing a trend is treated as incomplete without predefined reasons to enter and exit and without risk-management rules inside the same plan. Trend-following in this workflow is a rule set that seeks participation only in established directional swings and treats entry, exit, and standing aside as one procedure.

Expanding swings in the trend direction and contracting swings against it are offered as a price-only check that momentum is building. That check is swing-range-momentum: a comparison of successive swing lengths with and against the prevailing direction, used to judge whether a move is strengthening.

Test the plan as one procedure

A checklist-process is a pre-trade sequence that requires defined entry reasons, exit reasons, and risk limits before a swing-chart signal is acted on. The combined trend, entry, exit, and risk rules are to be tested as one procedure before they are treated as a usable system.

Market direction is treated as unknowable in advance. The remaining certainty is the trading-plan-anchor that already specifies how to enter, how to exit, and when to stand aside.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
19 of 30 in the Swing chart track
20081-2 pp.Next on Swing chartSwing highs, bar-count pace, and the cost-price stopA swing high is treated as relevant only after at least two bars print higher highs and higher lows, and some markets raise that bar count to three.
All readings on this track · 30 readings
  1. 1982Constructing range resistance from harmonic swing divisions
  2. 1984Gold swing chart: failed highs, wash-out, and a boxed pivot range
  3. 1988Remaining life on a percent-filtered swing chart
  4. 1991Ranking turning points with percentage swing filters
  5. 1991Five-count swing-chart construction and break rules
  6. 1992Constructing the Gann quarterly swing from the prior quarter's intraday range
  7. 1992Audit quarterly swing breakouts with a slower average cross
  8. 1992Weekly swing invalidation and the trailing stop
  9. 1992Quarterly swing chart construction and trend duration
  10. 1998A two-bar swing is unfinished until it names the stop
  11. 1999Multiple time-frame swing-channel trade setups
  12. 1999Separate two-bar swing direction from peak-valley trend
  13. 2000Constructing peak-trough swing reversals
  14. 2002Swing charts as shared grammar for trading mentorship
  15. 2002Confirming the last leg of a zigzag trend filter
  16. 2004When a late trend bends: test the pause before sizing a reversal
  17. 2006Crude oil swing counts and cycle clusters
  18. 2006When late rallies flatten: a swing-chart classroom
  19. 2006Relocating trading certainty to the decision process
  20. 2008Swing highs, bar-count pace, and the cost-price stop
  21. 2010Constructing suspect versus confirmed swing trends
  22. 2010Constructing swing charts from clear bar ranges
  23. 2010Building price force maps from two-bar swings
  24. 2010Clear-method swing-chart construction
  25. 2011Treat a squared-chart swing forecast as a same-day hypothesis
  26. 2012Cycle mode construction from aligned bandpass swing waves
  27. 2013Stacked swing lows and breakout retrace tests
  28. 2015Building swing charts from perceptually important points
  29. 2015Construct a zztop from perceptually important points
  30. 2016Isolating swings with percentage trend thresholds
By fieldDecision process69 readingsBy year200683 readings
All 34 readings tagged Swing chart
Also on Swing chart5 readings
1999Separate two-bar swing direction from peak-valley trend1982Constructing range resistance from harmonic swing divisions1982Swing charts, stop-loss orders, and good-till-cancelled covers in a bond-market coil1984Gold swing chart: failed highs, wash-out, and a boxed pivot range1988Remaining life on a percent-filtered swing chart