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2016issue C067-10

Isolating swings with percentage trend thresholds

Choose one percentage as the trend setting, isolate the price string that first exceeds it, and read trend height to see how the same chart changes at 30, 20, and 10 percent. The construction admits only up and down, and it has to state its horizon.

  • A chart trend is not a single shared object: an intradaily path can be one trend for a short-horizon participant and another for a multi-week participant, so construction has to state its horizon.
  • One construction isolates a consecutive price string only after a single chosen percentage advance or decline is exceeded, and it admits only two directions, up and down.
  • Once the trend setting is crossed, swing isolation locates the swing top and bottom and separates that price string from the rest of the series.
  • The same daily history produces greater trend heights at larger settings. In one 20-year sample, mean uptrend and downtrend heights were largest at 30 percent and smallest at 10 percent.
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Current trackSwing chart34 readingsTrendline128 readings

One setting, two directions

A chart trend is not a single shared object. An intradaily participant and a multi-week participant can treat the same price path as different trends, so construction has to state its horizon.

One construction defines a trend as a consecutive price string isolated by a single chosen percentage advance or decline. It admits only two directions, up and down. That percentage is the trend setting.

With a 20 percent setting, an uptrend is recognized only after prices have risen at least 20 percent, and a downtrend only after they have fallen at least 20 percent.

Once price crosses the chosen setting, the construction locates the swing top and bottom and can separate that price string from the rest of the series. That separation is swing isolation.

Trend height when the setting changes

A conventional high-low swing reading marks up-legs and down-legs from peak and trough, and names the vertical distance between those extremes trend height.

The same daily history can be isolated at 30 percent, 20 percent, or 10 percent settings, and the larger settings produce the greater trend heights.

In one 20-year daily sample ending 31 December 2015, mean uptrend heights were 126.95 percent, 76.14 percent, and 22.85 percent at the 30, 20, and 10 percent settings. In that same sample, mean downtrend heights were 35.18 percent, 27.59 percent, and 15.11 percent at the 30, 20, and 10 percent settings.

Relative to the chosen setting, isolated uptrends in that sample extended the measure by 96.95 percent, 56.14 percent, and 12.85 percent on average at 30, 20, and 10 percent.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
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All readings on this track · 30 readings
  1. 1982Constructing range resistance from harmonic swing divisions
  2. 1984Gold swing chart: failed highs, wash-out, and a boxed pivot range
  3. 1988Remaining life on a percent-filtered swing chart
  4. 1991Ranking turning points with percentage swing filters
  5. 1991Five-count swing-chart construction and break rules
  6. 1992Constructing the Gann quarterly swing from the prior quarter's intraday range
  7. 1992Audit quarterly swing breakouts with a slower average cross
  8. 1992Weekly swing invalidation and the trailing stop
  9. 1992Quarterly swing chart construction and trend duration
  10. 1998A two-bar swing is unfinished until it names the stop
  11. 1999Multiple time-frame swing-channel trade setups
  12. 1999Separate two-bar swing direction from peak-valley trend
  13. 2000Constructing peak-trough swing reversals
  14. 2002Swing charts as shared grammar for trading mentorship
  15. 2002Confirming the last leg of a zigzag trend filter
  16. 2004When a late trend bends: test the pause before sizing a reversal
  17. 2006Crude oil swing counts and cycle clusters
  18. 2006When late rallies flatten: a swing-chart classroom
  19. 2006Relocating trading certainty to the decision process
  20. 2008Swing highs, bar-count pace, and the cost-price stop
  21. 2010Constructing suspect versus confirmed swing trends
  22. 2010Constructing swing charts from clear bar ranges
  23. 2010Building price force maps from two-bar swings
  24. 2010Clear-method swing-chart construction
  25. 2011Treat a squared-chart swing forecast as a same-day hypothesis
  26. 2012Cycle mode construction from aligned bandpass swing waves
  27. 2013Stacked swing lows and breakout retrace tests
  28. 2015Building swing charts from perceptually important points
  29. 2015Construct a zztop from perceptually important points
  30. 2016Isolating swings with percentage trend thresholds
By fieldTrend and channels181 readingsBy year201678 readings
All 34 readings tagged Swing chart
Also on Swing chart5 readings
1992Quarterly swing chart construction and trend duration2000Constructing peak-trough swing reversals2002Confirming the last leg of a zigzag trend filter2010Constructing suspect versus confirmed swing trends2015Building swing charts from perceptually important points