Monitor each opening-range setup as its own regime

Wait for the first-hour window

The case study specifies a mechanical entry that is not taken at the cash open. A position is considered only after the first-hour window closes. If a named setup qualifies, the position is held over the remainder of the cash session, from the 10:30 print through the 16:00 close.

Classify overnight session and first-hour direction separately

Overnight state is defined solely by the open versus the prior close. An open above the prior close is a rising overnight session. An open below the prior close is a falling overnight session. That classification is independent of first-hour direction.

First-hour state is defined solely by the 10:30 print versus that day’s open. A 10:30 print above the open is a rising opening hour. A 10:30 print below the open is a falling opening hour.

Trade four setups, not one blend

Those two binary classifications produce four mutually exclusive rule-based setups: up/up, up/down, down/up, and down/down. Each can be tabulated and traded separately rather than as one blended system.

Entry fires only when a named combination of overnight session and first-hour direction is present. Otherwise the system abstains. The case tabulates the four combinations separately and does not treat their averages as equal.

Judge the rule inside the same window

The study insists that system effectiveness be judged inside the same window from 10:30 to 16:00 by contrasting days that qualify as a tradable play with days that do not. A broad market rally is not to be mistaken for rule edge.

The case notes that an always-long rule held through a later rally would have looked successful. It uses that backdrop to argue that a short-biased opening-range system must be scored against the prevailing trend, not given credit for it.

Read each running-summary for a regime-break

The prescribed monitoring method is a separate cumulative plot for each of the four setups. Each plot is read as range, breakout, or breakdown. No mechanical combination is assumed to keep working through every market regime.

Even a short setup the case treated as favorable on average still showed a completed triple-bottom and a sequence of higher lows on its running-summary. The case treats that structure as a reason to question continued shorting even while the lifetime average remains favorable.