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1989issue C101-4

A close-to-close sequence is a bias label, not a trigger

The archive treated two- through five-day close-to-close sequences as directional-bias scores and compared a close-to-close hold with later opening-range entries and a fixed-tick stop. Editorial reading: withhold the order until the next open confirms or cancels that label and the stop is specified before the fill.

  • Editorial lesson: treat a close-to-close sequence as a directional-bias label, not as a trigger.
  • Opening-range confirmation waits for the next session and takes the trade only if that open is on the bias side of the prior close sequence.
  • A fixed-tick stop is specified before the position is held, and the abstention rule is to stand aside when the next open fails to confirm.
  • The archive framed the catalog as a daily bias map and a starting point for further rule research, not as a finished signal.
Entries in this reading3 entries

Close-to-close sequences were catalogued as bias scores

The archive enumerated close-to-close sequences of two through five successive session closes on Treasury-bond futures. Each close was marked only as higher or lower than the close immediately before that day.

The base test entered on the last close of the sequence and exited on the next session close. That base test used no stop.

One named sequence was two lower closes followed by two higher closes, each compared with the immediately preceding close. The short was taken on that last, higher close.

The tabulated percent profitable column was treated as a directional-bias score. Larger bias readings were used only as a cue to keep developing the sequence as a rule rather than as a finished signal.

Holding from one close to the next close was described as weaker in bias and larger in risk than an open-to-close hold. The write-up took that comparison as evidence that the directional edge faded as the hold lengthened.

The next open could confirm the short, with a stop set first

After a selected close-to-close sequence, one opening-range variation waited for the next session, sold only if that open was higher, and exited on the same day's close. That is opening-range confirmation: the trade is taken only if the next open is on the bias side of the prior close sequence.

A more selective opening-range variation also required a wide-range last day on the final bar of the close-to-close sequence before selling a higher following open.

A stop-loss variation of that higher-open sale placed a seven-tick stop above the open. That fixed-tick stop set the loss distance before the position was held.

The default was a daily bias map

The catalog was framed as a daily bias map. The default was not to trade against the indicated side unless other information clearly overrode it. The sequences were offered as a base for further rule research.

Ten-year gross profit by bond close-to-close sequence

Each bar is the printed 10-year gross profit for that plus/minus close run in bonds, read from the results table rather than from a plotted curve. A handful of labels — four down-closes taken long, two down then two up sold, and the plain two-day down close — tower over the rest, while several five-day tags finish near zero even when more than half the trades won. The sequence is a bias tag, not an automatic entry.
Each bar is the printed 10-year gross profit for that plus/minus close run in bonds, read from the results table rather than from a plotted curve. A handful of labels — four down-closes taken long, two down then two up sold, and the plain two-day down close — tower over the rest, while several five-day tags finish near zero even when more than half the trades won. The sequence is a bias tag, not an automatic entry.US Treasury bonds · Daily close-to-close

Gross totals are as printed; commissions and slippage are not stated. Two-day labels rest on roughly 500–560 trades; five-day labels on about 50–80, so the tallest bars are not equally sampled. B or S is the side the study took after the close run.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
7 of 25 in the Opening range breakout track
19891-6 pp.Next on Opening range breakoutInside-day contraction as a same-session open-to-close ruleAn inside day is a candlestick session whose high is below the prior high and whose low is above the prior low.
All readings on this track · 25 readings
  1. 1988Early entry as the session switch for an opening-range breakout
  2. 1989Evaluating inside-day filters on opening-range breakouts
  3. 1989Opening-range breakout after a narrow-range-four session
  4. 1989A joint contraction setup as the arming switch for an opening-range breakout
  5. 1989Next-session opening-range rules after a bear hook
  6. 1989Same-session exits from multi-day open-close codes
  7. 1989A close-to-close sequence is a bias label, not a trigger
  8. 1989Inside-day contraction as a same-session open-to-close rule
  9. 1990Evaluating five-day soybean open-to-close rules
  10. 1990Hourly breakouts gated by absolute tick volume
  11. 1993Premarket setup selection and opening-range rules
  12. 1994First-hour opening-range construction as a refusal problem
  13. 1995Why historically tested rules fail without a decision process
  14. 2001The opening range as a measuring stick for a ladder breakout
  15. 2001Evaluating an opening reaction as one timed stop procedure
  16. 2003Swing trading, opening-range checks, and the decision to stand aside
  17. 2006Monitor each opening-range setup as its own regime
  18. 2006Midday breakout rules from the opening range
  19. 2007Opening-range breakout as one session procedure
  20. 2007Evaluating same-day opening range entry rules
  21. 2008Overnight auction regimes and the intraday hold-or-exit choice
  22. 2010Construct a market-state-first range-breakout system as one procedure
  23. 2013Opening-hour stop as a session filter
  24. 2017Overnight volume as a construction step for the opening-range breakout
  25. 2017Night-volume gate for opening range breakouts
All 29 readings tagged Opening range breakout
Also on Opening range breakout5 readings