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2016issue C018-11

Ugly double bottom after a yearly low

An ugly double bottom is a first valley followed by a higher second valley, searched only after a yearly low in a rising market. The historical workflow treats that shape as an entry only after pattern-confirmation, a pre-placed stop, and a chosen exit.

  • An ugly double bottom uses a higher second valley rather than two valleys at or near the same price.
  • The historical search applies a bull-market-filter and a yearly-low-first-bottom constraint, so the first valley is extreme weakness inside a rising market.
  • The structure stays a chart hypothesis until a close above the pattern top, a protective stop, and a chosen exit form one rule set.
  • A stop below the first bottom is the preferred placement because new-low stocks often print still lower lows; that depth is treated as a structural flaw, not as tight short-term risk control.
Entries in this reading3 entries

What an ugly double bottom is

An ugly double bottom is defined as a first valley followed by a second, higher valley. That shape differs from a traditional double bottom, whose valleys sit at or near the same price.

The second bottom is required to stand inside a bottom-separation-band above the first, so the pair is a higher-valley structure rather than a matched one.

Where the search is allowed

The historical workflow searched the setup only under a bull-market-filter. It also required a yearly-low-first-bottom: the stock had to be making a new yearly low, and that yearly low had to be the first bottom of the higher-valley pair.

Bottoms were located as the lowest low inside a short window around each candidate. Until pattern-confirmation, the higher valley is not treated as a valid setup.

Confirmation and entry

The pattern becomes valid only at pattern-confirmation, when price closes above the top of the two-valley structure. The close filter is intended to skip one-day spikes.

After that close, the historical workflow used a next-day open buy or a buy stop just above the pattern top.

Stops, targets, and holding period

A stop just below the first bottom is the preferred protective placement. A stop below the second bottom is the tighter alternative.

The archive treats the deep first-bottom stop as a structural flaw that is still needed, because new-low stocks often make still lower lows. In the archive example, a stop under the second bottom would have been hit on a later dip.

A height-multiple-target was used as the measured exit, projecting a multiple of the pattern height above the pattern top or the buy price. Tall patterns are described as helpful, but they do not guarantee a trend change.

The same workflow presents the setup as better suited to longer holding periods than to tight short-term risk.

Manpower ugly double bottom after the 2014 yearly low

After the late-October yearly low, Manpower put in a higher November valley and confirmed when price cleared the pattern top; a December shakeout would have stopped a second-bottom exit, then the spring rally reached the twice-height objective. Printed prices for the first bottom (57.55), second bottom (64.91), pattern top/entry (67.21) and 2x-height target (86.53) come from the article; the connecting path is read from the published daily chart.
After the late-October yearly low, Manpower put in a higher November valley and confirmed when price cleared the pattern top; a December shakeout would have stopped a second-bottom exit, then the spring rally reached the twice-height objective. Printed prices for the first bottom (57.55), second bottom (64.91), pattern top/entry (67.21) and 2x-height target (86.53) come from the article; the connecting path is read from the published daily chart.Manpower Inc. (MAN) · Daily · 2014-08-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2015-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Preferred setup in the source: bottoms 10–20 percent apart (13 percent here), buy stop a penny above the pattern top, objective at twice the pattern height. Unlabeled vertices are approximate candlestick reads, not tick data.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
26 of 32 in the Double top and bottom track
20168-9 pp.Next on Double top and bottomAn unconfirmed stock double bottom next to a confirmed indexA double-bottom stays a candidate until pattern-confirmation, which in this case is a close through the intervening-peak.
All readings on this track · 32 readings
  1. 1988Reaction length as a trend integrity test
  2. 1991Sold-out double bottoms as a three-gate inventory test
  3. 1991A breadth classifier for V-bottoms and W-bottoms
  4. 1991Precomputed price-ratio clusters and double-top tests
  5. 1992Bond turning points as a regime check on equity double tops and breakouts
  6. 1992Commodity-bond ratio as an equity regime overlay
  7. 1992Gold lead confirmation for commodity-index turns
  8. 1994Constructing the thousand-line advance-decline indicator
  9. 1995Evaluating zero-line patterns on a breadth-price oscillator
  10. 1996Constructing double tops from a resistance retest to a trough break
  11. 1996Four-stage double-bottom construction
  12. 1998Double-bottom confirmation and stop placement
  13. 2000Two-bar reversal construction
  14. 2001Constructing double tops from failed resistance retests
  15. 2002Eve-Eve double bottoms: width, confirmation, and overhead resistance
  16. 2002Constructing Eve-and-Eve and classic double bottoms
  17. 2003Eve-Adam double bottoms as a two-step classroom test
  18. 2003Shape contrast then breakout confirmation in Adam and Eve double bottoms
  19. 2003Reading cyclical bottoms inside secular bear regimes
  20. 2004A case study of the shark-attack Fibonacci retracement
  21. 2004Confirming index turns with envelopes, divergence, and breadth
  22. 2005A five-wave euro/dollar case and the support that still had to fail
  23. 2007Constructing commodity seasonal indexes for regime context
  24. 2009Constructing rounded and double-top short setups
  25. 2010Hourly pattern entries, exits, and abstention as one playbook
  26. 2016Ugly double bottom after a yearly low
  27. 2016An unconfirmed stock double bottom next to a confirmed index
  28. 2016Constructing a range-midpoint moving average
  29. 2017Evaluating whole-dollar delays on pattern breakouts
  30. 2018Volume-confirmed bottoms and breakouts with moving averages
  31. 2018Evaluating double bottoms with a locked stochastic confirmation
  32. 2019Forex pairs as relative value: yield spreads, support, and a double bottom
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